Very pleased with today’s achievement: a peening bench for my scythe. Time to clear my little ragwort meadow!

#scything #mowing

i love prior-predictive simulation now!

made a guess at some priors and fit the model - got some weird behaviour that wasn't playing nicely. sat down and plotted them out, turns out they were saying something i definitely thought was unlikely...

Been a wee while but I’m back to #TabletWeaving! Upgraded my loom with some wider pegs (the tension peg in particular is much easier to handle now), and weaving up shoelaces in 20/2 mercerised cotton. Going carefully as I’m scared the tablets are going to snap a warp thread but so far so good!

#weaving

Blasting this #Statistics #CausalInference #Confounding question that's vexing me out there into the aether:

I'm trying to build a Poisson model of a count variable as a function of a set of environmental variables. I have to transform the coefficients into rates by including an offset, as I have different levels of exposure for each measurement. However, I have strong reason to suspect that this offset is also influenced by the same environmental variables.

Am I screwed?

This week’s #TabletWeaving pattern: forget-me-nots! Trying out my new wooden cards this week - I think I prefer their size, and they certainly allow more weaving length on my small inkle loom, but they’re a lot more snaggy on the threads - will need to spend more time playing with the tension to get these right!

https://twistedthreads.org/pattern/YT6BWSZ2cYEva3YHF

#weaving

In between illness, work and family staying, it’s taken me over a week to get the loom warped up for some more #TabletWeaving. This week is the Cambridge diamonds pattern, which immediately caught my eye as a current Cambridge resident. Trying out swivels this time too for the twist.

After a slightly weird start, the diamonds are coming out regular and consistent (seems to want a very strong beat down!), really pleased with it 😍

#weaving