RE: https://mas.to/@thecontinent/116144163822701961
Chad has closed its border with Sudan amid repeated incursions by the RSF, which Déby has been accused of backing - claims he denies. For this week's @thecontinent, I highlight what this means for his legitimacy, the cohesion of the military and political elite and the humanitarian catastrophe.
Islamic State claimed an attack on the main airport in Niger, marking its first complex incursion on a Sahelian capital since establishing presence there a decade ago. Niger accused its neighbours and France, further straining political and security ties.
Spoke to BBC News about counterinsurgency challenges and the dynamics around the growing proximity of militant activity in urban areas in the Sahel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172zsq2kvcpn1v
Central African Republic held its first general election in three decades amid elevated political stability and civil unrest risks.
I spoke to Deutsche Welle news about the presidential frontrunners, how the incumbent Touadéra has overseen constitutional changes and peace deals with rebels to legitimise his third term and why tackling insecurity will remain critical to CAR's economic development https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TBC84m6wwU
Côte d'Ivoire goes to the polls on 25 Oct and the legitimacy of its institutions and its credentials as an oasis of commercial stability - which Control Risks highlights in this year's Africa Risk Reward Index - are under scrutiny.
A few thoughts in The Economist on how the election is tilted in the favour of Ouattara who is seeking a fourth term that has precipitated protests in opposition strongholds in the south: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/10/23/two-flawed-elections-show-the-dangers-of-one-party-rule
They had a lot to say about global affairs. But complicated things happening closer to home? Not so much. Like their counterparts from other continents, African leaders took to the United Nations podium over the past week to address the U.N. General Assembly on pressing global issues, including climate change, inequality and the spread of conflict. African leaders spoke vehemently about global conflicts and called for an end to Israel’s attacks on Gaza. However, analysts say two of Africa’s most complicated conflicts in Sudan and Congo, which have killed thousands of people and both reached an impasse, were given barely any significant airtime by African leaders.
Mali's interim prime minister has said efforts are underway to ensure fuel supplies do not run out amid a blockade by JNIM on two key towns in the western mining regions and attacks on dozens of trucks importing fuel from neighbouring Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire.
Spoke about prevailing security threats against commercial operators, and how the militant group intends to pressure residents and (primarily local) businesses against having links with the military-led gov't: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0m3c3dj
Mali's authorities have (finally) confirmed arresting several military officers and two generals in connection with a coup plot.
Spoke to BBC News about pronounced tensions in the military leadership that threaten Gen Goïta's hold on power as he embarks on an indefinite term and the restrictive political and security environment as a subsequent coup, which remains a likely scenario, could prompt further instability and disrupt Mali's strategic economic interests: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0lwjdsw
Cameroon opposition leader Kamto has rejected his exclusion from the 12 October presidential election, leaving incumbent Biya the clear frontrunner for an eighth term.
Spoke to @cnbc.com Africa about election scenarios, Biya's health and heightened political tensions https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/7754653696712/
Cameroon’s main opposition figure Maurice Kamto has rejected his exclusion from the forthcoming presidential election by the country's constitutional court , describing the move as arbitrary. Beverly Ochieng, Senior Analyst, Francophone Africa at Control Risks projects that prevalent scenarios hint Biya is likely to win an 8th term in office, despite a divided political class.
