Turns out that #ManifoldMarkets is well calibrated, if you restrict yourself to markets with at least 5 trades.

The attached image shows dots for each 10% bucket. If the dot is on the green line, that means that bucket matched expectation, since those events happened with their expected probability.

The biggest errors are towards the extremes, which makes sense. As things stand now, it is often difficult to get the true probability of things in the 0-5%/95-100% buckets

Look who decided to take a nap with me!

I had left the window open overnight, so it got down to 60F. Clearly Oph decided we need to share the warmth.

I think Maya enjoys the cool. It's hard to tell

#catsofmastdon

Courtesy of egg_irl

#trans