Olivia Appleton

@LivInTheLookingGlass
4 Followers
160 Following
510 Posts

🏳️‍⚧️ + 💖💜💙

I'm a graduate Computer Science student who dabbles in photography. My weird interest is probably OpenStreetMap.

I am also:
- https://bookwyrm.social/user/gappleto97
- @[email protected]
- @[email protected]
- @[email protected]

OpenStreetMaphttps://openstreetmap.org/user/LivInTheLookingGlass
GitHubhttps://github.com/LivInTheLookingGlass
BookWyrmhttps://bookwyrm.social/user/gappleto97
metadata25, she/her, trans, bi, atheist
I don't mean to alarm anyone, but...

Turns out that #ManifoldMarkets is well calibrated, if you restrict yourself to markets with at least 5 trades.

The attached image shows dots for each 10% bucket. If the dot is on the green line, that means that bucket matched expectation, since those events happened with their expected probability.

The biggest errors are towards the extremes, which makes sense. As things stand now, it is often difficult to get the true probability of things in the 0-5%/95-100% buckets

Woot woot!
Me, circa 4 months ago

Look who decided to take a nap with me!

I had left the window open overnight, so it got down to 60F. Clearly Oph decided we need to share the warmth.

I think Maya enjoys the cool. It's hard to tell

#catsofmastdon

Here, have a trans meme
Maya loves to sleep at the foot of our bed 😭

Courtesy of egg_irl

#trans