2/ Snyder continued:
"The fact that Hegseth is still secretary of defense points in the same direction. He has shown himself to be laughably unfit to run a foreign war. But he is a person — perhaps the only person around — who would be enthusiastic about a self-invasion.

Again, if that seems odd to you, you are already inside the scenario, making it more likely. Trump is an admirer of Putin. This is exactly how Putin came to power: a terrorist attack in Russia that could be blamed on Muslims.

Now think two steps ahead. Iran does not have to do anything. Trump and his accomplices could themselves stage an incident inside the US and blame Iran. The American war crimes would make the false flag seem plausible.

Again, please resist the urge to dismiss this scenario. In Trump’s world this is absolutely normal politics. The 1999 terrorist attack that brought Putin to power was a false flag. The Russian secret services bombed apartment buildings and killed Russians,

🧵 4/5

One of the bad consequences of this attack on Iran by the USA and Israel is the damage it will do anti-regime movements and human rights advocates within Iran. Many of them will feel outraged by the bombing of their compatriots, and all of them will now be dubbed as traitors and collaborators not only by the government but perhaps too by a substantial proportion of their fellow Iranians.

Diplomacy, international campaigning by human rights groups, and the supply of peaceful means of communication and publicity to opponents of the regime would have been a better course to follow. How will the Tehran regime ever be persuaded to get back to the negotiating table with either its domestic or foreign opponents after what has happened now?

Image: A woman holding the "Woman, Life, Freedom" sign, with the fallen street sign "Jomhouri Eslami" (Islamic Republic) in the background and tear gas in the air. October 1st 2022. Tehran, Iran.Middle East Images/Redux