AI: just one big trade - Sopuli

> US GDP growth is now driven almost exclusively by rising tech spending. If this starts to drop, the US economy will enter recession very quickly — even if tech investments decline only by a little bit, say 4 to 6 per cent, as happened after much smaller tech booms in the 1960s and during the 2009 recession. > As I showed in my last post, [https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2026/06/02/global-profits-an-upward-turn/] US corporate profits have risen significantly. But according to Brian Green in a recent post [https://theplanningmotive.com/2026/05/30/the-us-economy-in-q1-2026-stronger-than-expected/], around 80% of the increase in US non-financial corporate profits came from Nvidia and hyperscalers. The stock market is increasingly concentrated in a handful of AI‑linked stocks, which now account for roughly 40 per cent of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation, according to Bank of America data. Headline profitability is being flattered by a small slice of the economy earning extraordinary returns from the scramble to build AI capacity. The risk, then, is that the economy, the profit cycle and the stock market [https://www.ft.com/content/d62da0d0-41ab-4d04-86d6-548d90629aaf] “are all leaning on the same narrow pillar. If the expected returns on AI infrastructure and platforms are questioned, the fallout may not stop at a few richly valued technology stocks.”  > As I have pointed out in previous posts, [https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2026/02/21/us-economy-jobs-and-ai/] up to now the massive investment in AI has been mostly funded by the profits already being made by the hyperscalers. But given the impossibility of finding enough additional revenues to self-finance their capex plans, hyperscalers and their hardware providers are increasingly using external financing to fund them. Get your money out of the US economy NOW. This is going to be a historic economic crash and it will hit the US hard.