@randahl He has no life (to spare/share) to live

And a question - Is anyone applauding him?

@randahl

So he has 2 bad exits, but if he stalls or do some more circus tricks The Epstein Files, Inflation, Unemployment and US Debt is waiting for him.

The problem is with GOP. They are cooked.

@randahl ...and there a few people as qualified to shoot themselves in the foot as Trump..

His hatred and stupidity will be it's own reward.

@randahl It's very much the classic dictator's dilemma, brought on by the need to cling to power at all cost. Has a tendency to drive dictatorships to do grossly unconscionable shit, often against their own people. Providing some option for luxurious exile has often been seen seen as a least bad third option internationally.

I really miss the option of ancient Greek style Ostracism, where people could vote to exile someone too dangerous to the state, who might otherwise rule as a tyrant.

@randahl https://youtu.be/SxKRDRU6iPM?is=FpPOgNik3pCIYuXi

#fallout

@randahl

It's not so binary. Today #Iran will announce the Strait open to all with a $1M toll. #Trump won't mind that. He tried a million dollar on Chinese-built ships calling U.S. ports. He'll call it a win.

The long term effect will be a Houthi toll in the Red Sea, a Russian toll in the Arctic, and a toll at Malacca. Trump will have succeeded in ruining all global trade. It will be the end of freedom of navigation, something the U.S. has supported for 80 years, and the British before that

@randahl The problem with your thinking is that Trump can't be weakened at home. His base is made up of people religiously devoted to him who live entirely in an echo chamber. The most likely scenario is that he either chickens out and declares victory or does a much more limited strike and declares victory.

Either way his supporters will unanimously praise him for his victory.

@randahl

#2 places undue faith in the international community, which with a few exceptions (South Africa for one) sat back while US-accelerated genocide happened and shrugged at public outcry.

@dougroudouvari

@randahl

Is this 1984-speak where losing is winning?

@randahl I am mystified by Number 1.

+ His core supporters are cultists and will eat whatever excuse he comes up with.
+ He promised no wars, particularly in MENA. He didn't hold to that.
+ His tariffs have contributed to a rise in the cost of living (lol, "the cost of eggs").
+ He has broken multiple laws already and acted like a dictator.
+ His massacre of MN, among others, caused him to fire Noem.
+ His BS around Epstein caused him to fire Bondi.

I don't think his reputation is an issue.

@randahl
Trump won't do the bombing himself.
If the military is following this order "the USA" will be gone as a superpower.
As insane as the whole set up seems. It would be no surprise to see a nuclear bomb dropped on Tehran. Yay, strong man superpower..🤡 😱

Staying silent in the face of a "Molotow Coktail" to the middle east and the following (domino) collapse of the world economy means being actively complicit.

Reasonable active resistance for peace would've been way to difficult i guess.😒

@randahl
Option 3 is some kind of strike that is neither a war crime nor definite but Trump calls it big and beautiful anyway.

I still wouldn’t rule out a ground invasion.

@randahl

Logically, there's a third option but I don't think it's very likely:

He gives the "genocide" order, but the military refuses.

By saying that it's unlikely, I'm implying that it is a criminal gang.

@blogdiva

@randahl "Either way, Trump loses."
Either way, nothing will happen.

He is already deeply into war crimes and nothing happen. And Eppstein weakens his Position with the MAGA Cult and nothing happend.

@randahl
I would prefer the third, albeit far less likely, outcome:

3. Trump is removed from office before trying to issue such orders.

@randahl

Either way, the people of Iran lose.

We can help by centring peoples and not Trump and his ego.

@randahl

I sincerely hope that #Trump, #Vance (who is just interfering with an election in a #EU Country) and his fellow minded people will be immediately declared personae non gratae throughout the #EU.
Such actors belong before an international criminal court. Every state that suffers from their destructive machinations and wars should demand compensation for the damages they cause- just as the world did after the two wars unleashed by Germany.