Ritika Sharma1d ago
Most people judge decisions by their outcomes.
Scientists know that’s backwards. Here’s how to actually evaluate whether you made a good decision. A #thread: 🧵
Show threadRitika Sharma1d ago
1/ A good decision can lead to a bad outcome. A bad decision can stumble into success. If you judge by results alone, you’ll learn the wrong lessons every single time.
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2/ This is called “resulting”—the mistake of using outcomes to evaluate decision quality. Poker players know this well. You can play a hand perfectly and still lose. That doesn’t make it a bad decision.
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3/ Instead, evaluate decisions based on what you knew at the time. Not what you learned after. This is hard because hindsight makes everything seem obvious.
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4/ Scientists use pre-commitment to prevent this. In research, we pre-register studies—committing to an analysis plan before we see the data. This stops us from cherry-picking results.
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5/ In life, pre-commitment looks like: setting decision rules before temptation arrives. “I’ll only check email twice a day.” I’ll invest 10% of every paycheck.” Decide the system before you’re in the moment.
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6/ Most decisions don’t need more information. They need clearer criteria. Before gathering data, ask: “What would make this a yes? What would make this a no?” Often, the answer becomes obvious.
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7/ Research shows that beyond a certain threshold, more information just increases confidence without improving accuracy. You feel more certain. But you’re not actually more right.
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8/ This is why researchers set information limits. “I’ll review 5 papers, not 50.” “I’ll spend 30 minutes on this decision, not 3 hours.” Constraints force clarity.
Apr 6 at 9:00pmTypefully
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9/ Decision fatigue is real. Studies show that judges are more likely to grant parole in the morning than in the afternoon. Your cognitive resources deplete. Important decisions made at 4 PM are reliably worse than those at 9 AM.
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10/ Sleep doesn’t just rest you—it consolidates information and surfaces insights. If it’s a big decision, sleep on it. Not as a cliché. As a strategy.
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11/ Here’s the framework: Small decisions → make a rule, automate. Medium decisions → time limit, decide quickly. Big decisions → minimum info, sleep on it, decide fresh.
Show threadRitika Sharma1d ago
12/ Most decisions are reversible. We act like they’re all permanent. In research, we use “strong opinions, loosely held.” Decide. Test. Update. That’s science. That’s also life.
Full breakdown in this week’s Bench to Brain. Link in comments.
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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/scientists-guide-making-better-decisions-ritika-sharma-au7ic/

#DecisionMaking #CriticalThinking #Research #CognitiveScience

The Scientist's Guide to Making Better Decisions

Every day, I make hundreds of decisions in the lab. Which experiment to run first.