Before the Debate Starts: The Six Questions That Actually Explain This War
- By Robert Pape
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/before-the-debate-starts-the-six

1. Is This About Trump—or Something Deeper?
[...] The answer is: Trump matters. But the trajectory is structural—and decades in the making.

2. What Is the Strongest Case for the Administration’s Strategy—and Where Does It Break Down?
[...] The problem is the assumption embedded in that logic: that limited force can change incentives without triggering counter-escalation that expands the conflict.

3. Why Is Iran’s Power Changing Now—If It Always Had This Capability?
[...] That is precisely why Iran did not act first. It waited for the US to become the “aggressor” and the world to blame the US for everything that followed.

4. If Anyone Can Disrupt Hormuz, How Can Iran “Control” It?
[...] The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20 percent of globally traded oil. That system does not require perfect security—but it does require predictable risk.

5. Is There Still an Off-Ramp?
[...] This is not a state negotiating from vulnerability. It is negotiating from leverage.

6. What Should We Watch Next?
[...] Watch logistics—not rhetoric [...]

https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/before-the-debate-starts-the-six

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