Micha艂 "rysiek" Wo藕niak 路 馃嚭馃嚘Happy ninth Mastodon Won't Survive Day to all who celebrate!
https://mashable.com/article/mastodon-wont-survive
I blogged about that last year:
https://mstdn.social/@rysiek/114284660479008679
To his credit, Lance Ulanoff admitted then he was wrong about fedi:
https://mastodon.social/@Lance_Ulanoff/114285108628269898
Today more time has passed since the Mastodon Won't Survive piece got published than there is left until the AI bubble pops. 
Feeling old yet? 
Quinn Norton@rysiek it has shrunk a lot which i am sad about, but what people need to remember is that foss shit never goes away, even when you want it to 馃槀
@quinn I don't think growth for growth's sake is the way to go, and while it does provide *a* signal, it is not *the* signal so to speak.
I fully expect Bluesky to start enshittifying, because of course they will with their cryptocurrency bro overlords looking for payout eventually.
Meanwhile fedi is doing its thing, getting more resilient, easier to join, dealing with some long-term issues around moderation and so on. And will be there, better prepared than ever, for the next wave.
Jules 馃嵑@rysiek not many of my non geeky friends are here, and none of the communities I am trying to reach out to 馃様
deutrino@quinn @rysiek Diaspora* is proof positive of that. I log in like once every 3 years at this point and it's all still there.
I'm interested to hear your perception that fedi is shrinking, I don't share it (despite knowing that "Mastodon" MAUs - however they're tracked - are down from peak) but I also think I have a sort of bottom-up approach to finding ppl to follow after being here almost 10 years and also being distrustful of Firstname Lastname clearly-has-a-mortgage accounts who post Takes.
@deutrino @quinn yeah. I used to be pretty active there, years and years ago.
The sad thing is Diaspora* used to be the biggest of the FLOSS federated social networks, and they kinda acted up because of this. Never properly documented their protocol, I believe, and were definitely not interested in implementing any other protocol.
It's a sad irony that at some point Mastodon and broader ActivityPub-verse grew way larger than they've ever been and now they're kinda in a pickle.