https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9

"extreme #global #climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C #warming for several sectors. For #droughts in global key breadbasket regions, #precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire #weather extremes across #forests, global #climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming"

And Jim Hansen is suggesting that we may hit 1.7 degrees this year.