Although the #sun โ˜€๏ธ provides nearly all the energy needed to warm the #planet, its contribution to #ClimateChange remains widely questioned. Many empirically ๐Ÿ“Š based studies claim that it has a significant effect on #climate https://phys.org/news/2023-07-role-sun-climate.html

"At least 60% of the warming ๐ŸŒก๏ธ of the #Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the #SolarSystem." https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Solar_System

#NicolaScafetta #SolarWind #SpaceWeather #TSI #TSA

Understanding the role of the sun in climate change

Although the sun provides nearly all the energy needed to warm the planet, its contribution to climate change remains widely questioned. Many empirically based studies claim that it has a significant effect on climate, while others (often based on computer global climate simulations) claim that it has a small effect.

Phys.org

One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the #Earth's temperature ๐ŸŒก๏ธ is the #sun โ˜€๏ธ. Researchers expect the Earth's temperature to fall ใ€ฝ๏ธ by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum. It's highly likely that we will experience another low point in 50-100 years. It could be as intense as the Maunder Minimum, which brought particularly cold โ„๏ธ weather during the 17th century. https://phys.org/news/2017-03-sun-impact-climate-quantified.html

Picture : https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg

#SpaceWeather #ClimateChange

Sun's impact on climate change quantified for first time

For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.

Phys.org

#Nature ๐Ÿ“† 2021The #Sun โ˜€๏ธ shows long-term variations with scales ranging from several decades to a few millennia. During the past decade, the Sunโ€™s activity has tended to decline ๐Ÿ“‰, raising concerns that the #Sun might be heading for the next grand minimum. We still have an underdeveloped understanding ๐Ÿ™ˆ of solar dynamo mechanisms and hence precise prediction of near-future #solar โ˜€๏ธ activity is not attained. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84830-5?error=cookies_not_supported&code=d8ae5994-cc9c-4b23-a8a2-b9cdb93ea717

#SpaceWeather #ClimateChange

Gradual onset of the Maunder Minimum revealed by high-precision carbon-14 analyses - Scientific Reports

The Sun exhibits centennial-scale activity variations and sometimes encounters grand solar minimum when solar activity becomes extremely weak and sunspots disappear for several decades. Such an extreme weakening of solar activity could cause severe climate, causing massive reductions in crop yields in some regions. During the past decade, the Sunโ€™s activity has tended to decline, raising concerns that the Sun might be heading for the next grand minimum. However, we still have an underdeveloped understanding of solar dynamo mechanisms and hence precise prediction of near-future solar activity is not attained. Here we show that the 11-year solar cycles were significantly lengthened before the onset of the Maunder Minimum (1645โ€“1715 CE) based on unprecedentedly high-precision data of carbon-14 content in tree rings. It implies that flow speed in the convection zone is an essential parameter to determine long-term solar activity variations. We find that a 16 year-long cycle had occurred three solar cycles before the onset of prolonged sunspot disappearance, suggesting a longer-than-expected preparatory period for the grand minimum. As the Sun has shown a tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996โ€“2008 CE), the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the later solar activity.

Nature

#NCBI ๐Ÿ“† 2020 #Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling โ„๏ธ. In the next 500 years there are two modern grand solar minima approaching in the #Sun โ˜€๏ธ, the modern one in the 21st century (๐Ÿ“† 2020โ€“2053). The reduction ๐Ÿ“‰ of #terrestrial temperature during the next 30 years can have important implications for different parts of the planet on growing vegetation, agriculture ๐ŸŒพ, food supplies ๐Ÿฝ๏ธ, and heating ๐ŸŒก๏ธ needs https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/

#SpaceWeather #ClimateChange #NationalLibraryOfMedicine

Modern Grand Solar Minimum will lead to terrestrial cooling

PubMed Central (PMC)

๐Ÿ“† 2004 The level of #SolarActivity โ˜€๏ธ during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. During the past 11,400 years almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.
@mpsgoettingen ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
#Sodankylรค Geophysical Observatory ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
@hadw_bw ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
#EAWAG ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
https://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf

#SpaceWeather #ClimateChange

The orbits of planets ๐Ÿช in the #SolarSystem are not stable (chaotic), arising especially in the inner Solar System. Elucidating the role of #astronomical forcing in driving deep-ocean circulation is important for better understanding the future response of the #ocean ๐ŸŒŠ to #GlobalWarming ๐ŸŒก๏ธ. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46171-5

#ClimateChange

Deep-sea hiatus record reveals orbital pacing by 2.4โ€‰Myr eccentricity grand cycles - Nature Communications

Cenozoic deep-sea hiatuses reveal a ~2.4โ€‰Myr eccentricity signal corresponding to orbitally-forced intensification of deep-water circulation. The signal is disrupted by a chaotic orbital transition in the Solar System at about 56โ€‰Ma.

Nature
Good #science takes years โณ to develop. If we put off research until the 2030s, we could find ourselves in a world thatโ€™s made some uneven progress on the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions but not enough, with temperatures still headed toward 3 ยฐC of warming ๐ŸŒก๏ธ. We canโ€™t then suddenly hope to produce rigorous science that would help us understand whether #solar #geoengineering is advisable https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/01/26/1044226/we-cant-afford-to-stop-solar-geoengineering-research/
We canโ€™t afford to stop solar geoengineering research

It is the wrong time to take this strategy for combating climate change off the table.

MIT Technology Review

It is difficult to separate natural variability from changes caused by human activity. This speaks to the need for understanding ๐Ÿค” the complexities of how the #Earth functions as an entire system. Hard #evidence is vital for predicting future #climate and weather patterns. #Satellite ๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ measurements are some of the key ways of obtaining the #scientific ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ”ฌ data needed to improve understanding of the Earth ๐ŸŒŽ https://www.itu.int/en/action/environment-and-climate-change/Documents/frontier-technologies-to-protect-the-environment-and-tackle-climate-change.pdf

#SpaceScience #ClimateChange

The ~100,000-year cycles that pace #IceAge โ„๏ธ transitions depend critically on #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด. Earth's axial tilt also responds to Mars's gravitational influence.

Earth's #Milankovitch cycles* aren't just about Earth and the Sun. They're a product of our entire #planetary neighborhood https://www.sciencealert.com/mars-has-a-surprising-influence-on-earths-climate-scientists-discover

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#Present_and_future_conditions

#Climate #variation

Mars Has a Surprising Influence on Earth's Climate, Scientists Discover

Earth's climate has swung between ice ages and warmer periods for millions of years, driven by subtle changes in our planet's orbit and axial tilt.

ScienceAlert