@Indyposterboy Generally, that's a REALLY GOOD PLAN. If all pro-independence voters followed it, we would, as you say, maximise pro #ScottishIndependence
representation.
You can therefore be absolutely certain the #SNP will sabotage it.
I despair of the party, they will always put tribalism first and independence second.
Courage mon brave!
No doubt there will be some of what you speak, however the SNP remains a very broad coalition of interests that will ultimately split. Regardless of SNP tactics:
SNP1/SGP2 is the best electoral play on 7th May
@simon_brooke @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy
"Both Votes SNP" is a statement of innumeracy or self-harming political tribalism, or both.
(Except perhaps in parts of the South of Scotland region)
@2legged @simon_brooke @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy
It's nuanced.
Where I am, it's possible the SNP candidate will not win. It'd be reasonable for SNP supporters to also vote SNP on the list vote, since without the constituency MSP, there's more chance of picking up a list seat to compensate, and there's no chance of picking up an *extra* green list seat by voting Green.
I'm not giving anyone advice; I'm probably going to be SNP/Green for similar reasons to Simon. But it's nuanced.
@petealexharris @2legged @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy Heck, it's always nuanced.
I am not (yet) at all persuaded that the current @ScottishGreens leadership are any good. I'm not sorry that Patrick Harvie is gone, but Lorna Slater is the Scottish politician who has impressed me most over the past five years and I'm very sorry she's been demoted.
My decision to vote Green is more about shifting the window to the left than positive support for the party, at this stage.
@simon_brooke What was your criticism of Patrick Harvie?
@simon_brooke Wow! I hadn't seen that.
Any exampls? Or pointers to further reading?
@petealexharris This sort of calculation is based on assumptions of how others will vote. It's an anti-democratic insanity of a system, a reminder of why Scotland should adopt #STV.
But on the maths, so long as the SNP wins more constituency seats than the Greens do, d'Hondt means that an SNP list seat needs a lot more voters than Green list seats. This isn't opinion; it's maths.
@2legged @simon_brooke @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy
AMS with d'Hondt is OK, and STV also has problems. It may be insanity to give tactical voting advice that depends on how everyone else votes, but that's not a defect of the voting system. It's just a fool's game.
On the maths you're right. But SNP voters may still *want* an SNP MSP, and IF the candidate loses, the maths is less unfavourable to get a list one. Green might also get one anyway, and voting on the list for *what you want* is best.
@petealexharris AMS with d'Hondt is far from okay. AMS
1/ is gameable, as Alba tried to hack it
2/ punishes independents
3/ creates members with unequal status
4/ invites tactical voting based on multi-layered guesses about the behaviour of other voters
5/ blocks new parties, by not offering transferability
6/ is confusing for voters, who often don't fully understand how the two votes interact.
STV has none of those problems. STV has no #wastedvotes
1) they thought they could, and failed catastrophically
2) fair
3) dubious, in that it's one seat one vote on legislation.
4) if the tactical voting doesn't work AMS hardly invites it
5) fair, but they have to get enough votes either way
6) Nothing can fix that, and I haven't seen any objective measure by which it's more confusing than STV. It's as simple as: vote for a local candidate you like and vote for the party you want.
STV can give you the "nobody's first choice" problem.
@petealexharris The "nobody's first choice" problem is a theoretical construct with no real life application.
If a bunch of people gather in a room to select one or a few people, there is no demand that the chosen "must be somebody's first choice". People look for an outcome which overall commands majority buy-in, and repeatedly choose that over anyone's first choice.
That's why the political parties themselves use transferable votes (or multi-round voting) when choosing leaders.
1/ failure of one dysfunctional party does not disprove the hack
3/ List MSPs have 7 times more constituents to represent. Not equal.
4/ see 1
5/ getting enough votes is v hard when votes can be wasted. STV has no wasted votes
6/ untrue. STV rewards a vote for who you like/want. But in AMS, both votes offer tactical reward.
@petealexharris What conference would that be?
But I'm very surprised that you don't see how dual-vote AMS creates a way of gaming the system.
Some of the Green list vote is from that hack, as SNP supporters maximise pro-indy seats. Alba's failure to exploit the hack is a failure of Alba's acceptability to SNP supporters, rather than of the hack. Alba's plea for votes to ally with the SNP they hated was mad.
A new list-only, pro-indy, SNP-friendly, SNP-liked party w/o baggage could do v well.
@2legged @petealexharris @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy
7/ Gives far too much power to party managers, who get to decide how to prioritise their candidates on the list.
This is why a multi-member constituency/single transferable vote system, which we're already familiar with because it is what we use in "local government" (Scotland has no local government) elections would in my opinion be preferable.
I agree, @simon_brooke. STV gives power to the voters rather than parties.
But there is a big caveat: no micro-constituencies. STV requires at least 5 seats per constituency to work well.
Ireland's STV era began in 1921, with mostly 7β9 seaters. But two great gerrymanders (in 1935 and 1947) left 5 seats as the largest, and made 3-seaters common.
In 2013, the Constitutional Convention recommended making 5 the minimum, but the government said no. π‘
@simon_brooke There are really only 3 purposes for micro-constituencies:
1/ reduce travel in sparsely-populated areas
2/ #gerrymander
3/ system malfunction
Ireland has no type 1. Type 2 (#gerrymandered) have been common. But there are a lot of micros created by the intersection of the 5-seat upper limits, and don't-cross county boundaries princile. E.g. in 1997, 5-seat Kildare should have become a 6-seater, but instead was split into two 3-seaters
@alisonw That can happen only when a huge number of voters choose to vote for a slate rather than for wider range of voters. It applies only insofar as votes choose it.
So it's not a hack, it's a voter choice. Systems such #FPTP and #AMS (in constituencies) creates overwhelming outcome without voter support.
And I can't think of an real public elections where this overwhelming-by-slate has happened.
@2legged @petealexharris @simon_brooke @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy
I was on an internal Party executive where one person received over 60% of first preferences. Eight of the ten seeking re-election, including the Chair, lost out because of the order of allocation even though they mostly had high support. Obviously there are no guarantees but it was a learning experience for all concerned.
Personally I'm in favour of Condorcet.
@ISawTheWood @simon_brooke @Indyposterboy I suspect SNP1/SGP2 will broadly be the way to go in the vast majority of Scotland but Iβm still trying to work out the best option for down here in the staunchly Tory (with added leanings towards Reform) deep south west.
I suspect SNP1/SGP2 will still make most sense but Iβm still trying to work out if that really is optimal for here. Iβm concerned it might not be. Anyone got the numbers for a proper analysis?
@adrianww @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy Although I am now fundamentally a @ScottishGreens voter, I will probably actually vote #SNP constituency/#Green list, protesting bitterly as I do so. Galloway has historically been an SNP/ #Labour/ #Tory three way marginal; Yoon votes will probably bleed from both Labour and Tory to #ReformUKLtd and to block Reform we've really got to vote SNP.
Painful though that will be for me.
@adrianww @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy @ScottishGreens I was an #SNP member (and sometimes activist) for thirty years from 1979. But I left the party when they insisted in supporting the #monarchy until after #ScottishIndependence .
Since then they've been following the New Labour strategy of always triangulating right on the theory that the left have nowhere else to go, but... We do, actually.
@kathimmel @adrianww @ISawTheWood @Indyposterboy @ScottishGreens
Well, so did I. The SNP do NOT deserve to win this election, they have not done well in this last term in government, they need to be told clearly that we're not happy with them, that we want a lefter, greener, more principled and (hopefully) more competent government. But we must block the rise of #ReformUKLtd, especially here in Galloway.
So I probably shall vote SNP constituency, Green list, although I shall moan about it!
@Indyposterboy
I wasn't suggesting there is an alternative, only that it feels like history repeating itself.
I'm hoping the outcome is the same, and that a lot more voters find their courage this time.
@Indyposterboy Also as an aside, I keep hearing "It was a once in a generation vote" well the generation who voted and said no have almost entirely kicked the bucket, and most of the "campaign" promises from the No side have been broken over the last 12 years.
I still feel that rules should have been set in place to limit on who could campaign, I don't feel any political from Westminster should have been able to campaign here for the No side, or the yes side, It should have just been the MSPs
Thanks, this is useful. Though I don't have any of the bad corporate accounts so I can't share it further than here. Good to know there's a way to support the Greens for committed SNP voters like me.
@Indyposterboy Got to ask - where are the Welsh Greens? We have the Senedd votes coming up in May.
I'm not a nationalist but I am a socialist, and would love to see some guidance on tactical voting here in Wales.
I stopped voting labour when blair floated to the surface. From that point on, I simply wrote 'None of the above' on my voting slip π.
I'm voting Green, this time, but something like this regarding the Greens and Plaid Cymru, who both have a left wing agenda, would be a good move π΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώπ!
Colin Dunn
Simon Brooke
Cuilfail
Claire McNab
Wen
Pete Alex Harrisπ¦‘πΈοΈπ²/βπͺβ«
Adrian W
AlisonW
kat donegan π΅πΈβ
Fitheach
Trebach
Sydney / Prophet π³οΈββ§οΈπ΄σ §σ ’σ ³σ £σ ΄σ Ώ
Fardels Bear
Oyu F'ka