Peter Gleick
The US intelligence community long ago gamed out all the risks surrounding a conflict with Iran, including the possibility Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz.
If the Trump administration and Hegseth are surprised now, it's because they've never listened to, and sidelined, the experts.
Mar 11 at 2:10amWeb
Show threadIvan DjansazovMar 11
@petergleick Trump cares more about the haircuts in his administration than expertise. At least the world saw what is the alternative of Democracy.
Show threadStefan Edward JonesMar 11
@petergleick Turns out "The Deep State" is people who know shit and will tell you when you want to do something stupid.
Show threadAnnelies Kamran, Ph.D.Mar 11
@petergleick you'd think *anyone* could look at a flipping map and see that, but no...¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Show threadRastalMar 11

@petergleick US administration under Trump actively went against the advice of the Pentagon, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, State Department Intel and Research and National Security Agency, before this war kicked off.

Trump is effectively suiciding America for Israel and ignoring his own intelligence analysts, and he's doing that on behalf of religious extremists both in his administration and Netanyahu's.

Welcome to what future historians will call #ww3

#iran #iranwar

Show threadarrbeeMar 11
@Rastal @petergleick
Ah, but that advice assumed the "protection of civilians" rules were still in place. Taking a Gaza approach minimises Israel-US casualties and is the quickest way to provide pictures of devastation to justify Trump declaring a win. After which, again like Gaza, Israel can continue their own attacks as they see fit, subsidised by the US.
Of course this is a good way to raise the terrorist threat in the US, but that then gives an excuse to cancel elections & lock people up.
Show threadJDMar 11
@petergleick that's the thing with idiots. They think they know better, than literally everyone.
Show threadToni AittoniemiMar 11

@petergleick I used to think this was a war for oil. Then I thought it was a war for stupidity. But now I think I know what it’s for:

It’s a war for boosting falling church attendance..

Show threadCedar Fen Farm Cedar Fen FarmMar 11

@petergleick

Or they figured they could make another stock killing based on likely scenarios and the stupid assumption they could pull the plug on the war whenever.

Show threadGrassroots JoeMar 11

@petergleick

That's pretty much a given.

Trump can't sit still long enough to hear a proper briefing and all Hegseth hears when briefed are reasons he can't swing his you know what around, and since his is the biggest one anyone has (except his boss of course), no one is going to tell him he can't, so he stops listening/asking and does what he wants.

There was never any chance they'd consider how this could quickly go south before pulling the trigger.

Show threadFlorian 'floe' EchtlerMar 11
@petergleick Option 2: Trump and Hegseth actually wanted this to happen, because it's a huge benefit to their good ol' buddy in the Kremlin 🤷
Show threadJosh Mar 11
@floe @petergleick it’s also a huge benefit to whomever controls the truly massive oil reserves of Venezuela.
Show threadSzymon BęczkowskiMar 11
@petergleick The helper AI was not trained on the intelligence reports.
Show threadWillow "Wolveric" CatkinMar 11
@petergleick From what I recall, there were reports during his previous term that he never bothered reading his daily security reports, so that absolutely checks out...
Show threadBarry Cook 🇨🇦Mar 11
@petergleick - it reportedly takes comparatively little time to lay marine mines, but years to clear them.
Donna and Little Petey say they are taking out Iran’s (known) mine-laying vessels, but they say all sorts of things that have no basis in reality.