@albnelson This is just what the way the markets are thinking, not reality. Not yet.

That said:

No "troops on the ground yet" gives him room. Iran would have to go along, of course. But they have reasons to pretend to - good reasons - and unlike this fuck, they're patient.

(Reasons: for them, staying in power is a massive victory, so they have more claim to "we won" than he does; anyone trying to overthrow them is now _way more clearly_ an "agent of the Great Satan"; Tehran being kinda fucked up gives them an external excuse to start the relocations out that have to happen due to the collapse of water supplies. Those are three that come to mind, and each of those are invaluable by themselves.)