"Global yields of wheat are around 10% lower now than they would have been without the influence of climate change, according to a new study.

The study also assesses the impacts that warming and vapour pressure deficit – a key driver of plant water stress – have on crop yields.

The models show that these effects may be the main driver of losses in grain yield, with heat having a more “indirect effect”, as higher temperatures drive water stress. "

https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-wheat-yields-would-be-10-higher-without-climate-change/
#ClimateInflation

Climate change threatens banana exports, key to the Latin American economy

A study indicates that rising temperatures threaten 60% of the area suitable for growing the tropical fruit

https://english.elpais.com/climate/2025-06-07/climate-change-threatens-banana-exports-key-to-the-latin-american-economy.html
#ClimateInflation

Rapidly Increasing Soil Salinity Threatens Global Food Supply: UN Report

"The report, Global Status of Salt-Affected Soils, found that roughly 3.41 billion acres — 10.7 percent of land worldwide — is impacted by salinity, with another 2.47 billion acres classified as “at risk,” reported The Guardian."

https://www.ecowatch.com/soil-salinity-increase-food-supply-impacts.html

[Reminder that nearly half the US corn crop is grown for corn ethanol additives to gasoline.
Maybe grow less food for cars, more for people.]

"Rising global temperatures are set to devastate food crops across the world.

One of the striking findings of the study is that some of the wealthiest countries are likely to be hardest hit.

The only staple crop that might be able to avoid substantial losses is rice, which can benefit from warmer nighttime temperatures."

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/18/climate/food-crops-heat-rain

"While producers struggle to harvest the same amounts of food in the face of droughts, heat waves, and hurricanes, shoppers are more likely to face climbing food prices.

[A study of ] caloric output of agricultural production found that for every additional degree Celsius of warming, the global food system will produce roughly 120 fewer calories per person per day.

[At 3C warming], that’s the equivalent of everyone on the planet missing out on breakfast."

https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/food-prices-climate-agriculture-feedback-loop-research-calories-land-clearing/

"Drought is pushing tens of millions of people to the edge of starvation around the world, in a foretaste of a global crisis that is rapidly deepening with climate breakdown.

More than 90 million people in eastern and southern Africa are facing extreme hunger after record-breaking drought across many areas, ensuing widespread crop failures and the death of livestock. In Somalia, a quarter of the population is now edging towards starvation."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/02/droughts-worldwide-pushing-tens-millions-starvation-report

"By early 2024, Morocco had experienced six consecutive years of drought, leading to a 57% water deficit. In Spain, a 50% fall in olive production, driven by a lack of rainfall, has caused olive oil prices to double, while in Turkey land degradation has left 88% of the country at risk of desertification, and demands from agriculture have emptied aquifers. Dangerous sinkholes have opened up as a result of overextraction."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/02/droughts-worldwide-pushing-tens-millions-starvation-report

"Statistics Korea cited climate as a factor in last month's rise in consumer prices. Radish prices jumped 54 percent year-on-year, and shredded squid rose 39.9 percent, with surging prices in seafood and livestock products contributing significantly to inflation.
 
“Radish and napa cabbage shipments declined due to frequent heavy rains and abnormal temperatures, causing prices to spike. Seafood catches have fallen due to rising sea temperatures.”"

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-07-04/business/economy/Grocery-prices-overheat-as-climate-change-hurts-yields-with-no-relief-in-sight/2345789
#ClimateInflation

"A [new] study directly links dozens of climate extremes to sharp food price spikes, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of food systems to environmental shocks.

Previous studies have examined how high temperatures, which cause waning yields and supply shortages, drive general food price inflation over the long term. However, the new research shows that specific food items also experience much steeper short-term price spikes which feed into inflation."

https://www.ft.com/content/66b06e7d-7fa5-4b53-a4c2-55477af59649

"The cost of a wide range of goods – from vegetables in California to coffee in Brazil – saw dramatic spikes in recent years due to weather conditions that were “so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020,” according to [a new] study.

By driving up food prices extreme weather conditions can also worsen overall inflation, which can lead to political unrest and social upheaval, the researchers noted."

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/21/business/food-prices-climate-change-intl
#ClimateInflation

"Soaring food prices have been a major concern for consumers around the world since around 2021, with prices rising due to extreme weather fuelled by climate change, higher production costs and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – among other factors. "

https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-16-times-extreme-weather-drove-higher-food-prices-since-2022/
#ClimateInflation

"Both extreme weather and food costs have been on the rise in recent years.

Research suggests it’s more than just coincidence that the price increases and weather extremes are coming together. A report published Monday in the journal Environmental Research Letters shows how extreme weather events is correlated to specific food price spikes in the immediate aftermath."

https://time.com/7304646/climate-change-food-prices-extreme-weather/

"A warming planet with intensifying extreme weather is also affecting the price of your steak and hamburgers.

After years of drought, pastures haven’t been producing enough grass to feed cattle. So ranchers have been sending their animals to the slaughterhouse earlier, cutting back herds even as Americans eat more beef. This is sending prices to record highs."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/burgers-and-steak-prices-are-skyrocketing-this-is-why

(Soon: add in the effects of tariffs, nothing to do with climate change).

"U.S. imports of Brazilian beef have plummeted 80% in just three months, as President Donald Trump’s tariff crackdown begins to bite. Shipments tumbled from 47,800 tons in April — when a 10% tariff took effect — to just 9,700 tons so far in July. The looming 50% surcharge, scheduled for Aug. 1, is already reshaping trade flows and forcing exporters to reroute containers to beat the deadline."

https://www.thebeefsite.com/articles/weekly-global-protein-digest-u-s-beef-imports-from-brazil-collapse-amid-tariff-shock

We can eat differently, and better:

"This is a story of exploration, adaptation and improved health, not one of abstinence.

By transforming how we grow food and what we eat – rather than letting climate change dictate the pace of change – we have so much to gain. If you are a proponent for less but better meat, for increased crop diversity or organic food, then the answer is more plants in our diets."

https://theconversation.com/by-changing-our-diets-now-we-can-avoid-the-food-chaos-that-climate-change-is-bringing-256828

"Climate change is contributing to a global shortage of the world’s most consumed fruit.

Bananas are the fourth most important food crop globally, with more than 400 million people relying on the fruit for 15% to 27% of their daily calories, and they’re not the only crop at risk.

Climate models show that mitigation efforts are the best ways we can reduce climate impacts on our food supply."

https://time.com/7310462/banana-supply-climate-change/
#ClimateInflation

"The struggles [of farmers in the south of Europe] mean the price of wine, olives, citrus fruits and vegetables are expected to continue to rise, as droughts, flash floods and high temperatures affect traditional crops in the Mediterranean.

However, the more the climate crisis progresses the harder it becomes to adapt and the more costly it becomes."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/25/we-cannot-do-it-the-way-our-fathers-did-farmers-across-europe-struggle-to-adapt-to-the-climate-crisis
#ClimateInflation

"For every degree of warming, the study estimates year-to-year variability in crop yields will increase by 7% for corn (maize), 19% for soybeans and 10% for sorghum.

They identified “increased covariance of temperature and water stresses as a substantial and previously unquantified driver of future increases in yield variance.”"

https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/crop-failures-climate-change/

"These mounting [climate] risks are leading farmers to bet on regenerative agriculture. Together with climate advocates and scientists, they increasingly see these practices as key to withstanding changing climatic conditions — and to helping farmers stay in business. And Europe is showing how it can be done, they say."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02812-3

#ClimateInflation
Tariff inflation
Deportations inflation

"Grocery prices last month rose at their fastest pace in three years, stoked by Trump’s tariffs, a crackdown on immigration, and extreme weather hurting food production. Prices jumped 0.6% in August from the month prior, according to the latest reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they are up 2.7% from a year ago."

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/20/business/grocery-store-prices-kroger-coupons

"Mr Rinaudo's work as an agronomist — a soil and plant scientist — in the West African nation during the 1980s resulted in the development of farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR), a technique that resulted in trees springing up from lifeless soil.

His work has given the tool of knowledge to others around him, while feeding millions of people in the process."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/tony-rinaudo-wins-luxembourg-peace-prize-regenerative-farming/105666674

""Nobody has tried this before, but with climate change, we have crops that, 10 years ago, we wouldn't have thought would be viable. In 10 years time, rice could be a completely perfect crop for us," Nadine says.

This is the very edge of where rice can grow at the moment.
It will still be some time before we can test taste a UK rice crop - but it's a very real possibility that in the next decade, UK-grown rice could be coming to our dinner plates."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wgeq702dyo

"Beyond potatoes, Maine's other top crops are suffering. Blueberry growers are warning of reduced harvests this year, and Canada's industry — which supplies much of the U.S. — could see losses of up to one-third. Meanwhile, vegetable gardeners across the region are reporting wilting plants and dry soil.

For consumers, this means higher prices at the grocery store. "

https://www.thecooldown.com/sustainable-food/maine-drought-potato-farmers-climate-change-2/

#ClimateInflation

"Serbia has suffered from extreme drought in addition to frost in 2025, compounding the detrimental effects on crops.

The lack of rain has devastated corn crops, and the frost destroyed much of the fruit and vegetable yield, leading to extremely high grocery prices."

https://www.thecooldown.com/sustainable-food/serbia-drought-agriculture-farming/

#ClimateInflation

"One year’s worth of bread has been lost in the UK since 2020 due to extreme weather destroying harvests, a report has found.

Droughts and floods, which have been exacerbated by climate breakdown, have created a deficit in wheat production of over 7m tonnes. Experts at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) calculated this is enough wheat to bake more than 4bn loaves of bread – a year’s supply."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/08/one-years-worth-of-bread-lost-in-uk-to-wrecked-harvests-since-2020-report-finds

Climate Change Linked To 40% Of UK Food Price Hikes

Staples like butter, beef, milk, coffee and chocolate account for nearly 40% of all food price inflation, despite comprising only 11% of an average shopping basket, according to the study.

This trend challenges arguments that minimum-wage hikes or other domestic factors are the main cause of inflation.

Climate impacts added an estimated £360 (€414) to the average UK household food bill in 2022-23."

https://www.esmmagazine.com/supply-chain/climate-change-linked-to-40-of-uk-food-price-hikes-study-finds-298316
#ClimateInflation

"This week, prices spiked again in the futures market as stocks of Brazilian beans in the US dwindled to their lowest level since 2020 and Donald Trump threatened tariffs on Colombia, another big exporter.

But the president's trade war obscures another major factor driving up coffee prices: climate change."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-25/tariffs-and-climate-change-push-coffee-prices-up

FAO report:
"Disasters – from droughts and floods to pests and marine heatwaves – have inflicted an estimated $3.26 trillion in agricultural losses worldwide over the past 33 years – an average of $99 billion annually, roughly 4 percent of global agricultural GDP.

These losses translate to a daily per capita reduction of 320 kilocalories – 13–16 percent of average energy needs."

https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/disasters-cost-global-agriculture--3.26-trillion-over-three-decades--fao-report-reveals/en

Africa has lost $ 611 billion from 1991 - 2023 to "natural" disasters and climate change.
With great impact on the continent's food security.

https://www.leconomistemaghrebin.com/2025/11/19/climat-lagriculture-africaine-a-perdu-611-milliards-de-dollars-entre-1991-et-2023/

h/t @Snoro

#ClimateInflation in the price of food in North America:

"Projected warming by 2035 would drive food inflation up by 1.4 to 1.8 percentage-points per-year on average across North America (for low-end (SSP1-2.6) and high-end (SSP5-8.5) warming scenarios, respectively). By 2060, warming-driven food inflation across North America would reach 1.9 to 3.9 percentage-points per-year, respectively."

https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/climate-change-and-food-prices

" When enough early adopters begin experimenting with regenerative techniques, others can take notice. Perceptions shift. A new normal becomes possible.

Yet these pro-change norms are rarely included in global models. This limits our ability to understand where transformation might take off, or how policy and community support could accelerate it. "

https://earth4all.life/views/why-regenerative-farming-needs-social-change/

"As carbon dioxide increases, so does carbon uptake, and more carbon means more carbohydrates, like sugars and starch. However, critical nutrients such as iron, zinc, and protein all decreased. Our food might have more carbs but fewer essential nutrients."

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-affecting-your-food-and-not-in-your-favour-270323

“Climate change and weather extremes will drive down global caloric yields by about 24% under high future emissions.

“This would result in higher food prices, which in rich countries would feel like inflation. In poor countries, this would exacerbate food security problems and could negatively affect political stability.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2025/dec/18/how-climate-breakdown-is-putting-the-worlds-food-in-peril-in-maps-and-charts

#ClimateInflation

For food security, one must look beyond the staples, and consider regional variability.

"Overall, India is producing record levels of paddy and wheat, but marginal production of other crops affects nutrient intake.

Agricultural districts most vulnerable to climate change are often in arid or semi-arid regions, coastal zones and rainfed areas. Protecting these from crop losses would not only secure food supply and livelihoods but also ensure better health."

https://www.indiaspend.com/agriculture/changing-climate-is-impacting-indias-nutrition-security-974100

CO2 "plant food"? -- Not so fast.

"The results, she said, were a shock: although crop yields increase, they become less nutrient-dense. While zinc levels in particular drop, lead levels increase."

“We aren’t seeing a simple dilution effect but rather a complete shift in the composition of our foods … This also raises the question of whether we should adjust our diets in some way, or how we grow or produce our food.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/19/higher-carbon-dioxide-food-more-calorific-less-nutritious-study

‘Borrowed time’: crop pests and food losses supercharged by climate crisis

"Researchers said the world was lucky to have so far avoided a major shock and was living on borrowed time, with action needed to diversify crops and boost natural predators of pests.

The key global crops, wheat, rice and maize, are expected to see the losses to pests increase by about 46%, 19% and 31% respectively when global heating reaches 2C, the scientists said."

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/dec/20/crop-pests-food-losses-climate-crisis

"Unless urgent action is taken, the number of Somalis in need of humanitarian aid could reach 7.1 million by April this year.

This because the situation is expected to worsen during the peak of the dry season, from mid-December to March. Drought conditions worsened this year after failed rains in Somali regions, with some areas along rivers reporting a reduction in river flow, which has further impacted crop production reliant on rainfall and river water."

https://www.dawan.africa/news/drought-crisis-71-million-somalis-face-dire-need-by-april-sodma-warns

"Climate change is taking a toll on Karnataka's agriculture sector, with localised floods and droughts causing significant crop losses. Over the past five years, farmers have received Rs 7,079 crore (USD 772 million) in compensation for these losses.

Agriculture Department data shows that the number of farmers availing crop insurance has doubled over this period, while compensation payouts have tripled, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of farming."

https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/story/india/karnataka/climate-shocks-trigger-massive-crop-losses-in-karnataka-insurance-claims-soar-3881601

"Extreme weather in the global coffee-growing regions (“the bean belt”) is at least partly to blame for recent coffee price surges.

Coffee plants thrive under specific temperature and rainfall ranges. Suboptimal conditions can harm the quality and quantity of bean harvests.

Climate change is bringing more excessive heat to major coffee-growing regions, according to a new analysis using Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index."

https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/more-coffee-harming-heat-due-to-carbon-pollution-2026

"The model found that, if the world continues to emit a high level of greenhouse gas emissions, over 1.1 billion people globally, including more than 600 million children, will have been exposed to at least one severe food crisis by 2100.

[In] Africa with more than 170 million people [are] predicted to be exposed to food crises - the worst of which would be starvation - in 2099 alone – a number equivalent to the current combined population of Italy, France, and Spain."

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-could-expose-1-1-billion-people-to-hunger-by-2100-but-theres-good-news-too-ai-modelling-study-274478