Mastodawn

Cobra Coms Feb 15

When someone tells you that AGI is inevitable and the permanent economic displacement of most humans is a foregone conclusion, what they're really telling you is that they believe the current leaders of the AI industry will execute flawlessly, indefinitely, against challenges they can't yet foresee, in an environment that's changing faster than perhaps any in history.

This seems unlikely.

https://www.joanwestenberg.com/the-empire-always-falls/

The empire always falls

A citizen of Rome in 117 AD, under Emperor Trajan, would've found it difficult to imagine the empire not existing. The roads, the aqueducts, the legal system, the trade networks stretching from Britain to Mesopotamia: all of it seemed to be a near-fact of nature, like gravity // the Mediterranean itself.

Westenberg.

@Daojoan
Also if someone tells you the permanent economic displacement of most humans is a foregone conclusion without any plan whatsoever for how those humans will eat...

@Daojoan
“This seems unlikely.”
Always love a good understatement… 🤣

Else, Someone Feb 15

We are still arguing over how intelligent animals are. We can't even agree on what goes into intelligence.

There's no chance we know enough to intentionally engineer intelligent systems.

A far more likely explanation is the people making predictions about AGI are all desperately selling a fantasy to investors so they can get rich.

Look at elon musk's history of making grandiose promises that regularly fail. AGI is just as real as Tesla delivering self driving cars, or SpaceX putting humans on mars, when we haven't even accomplished a much easier robotic sample return mission.

Wulfy—Speaker to the machines Feb 15

AI leaders will not

Machines will.

(If) #AGI comes, humans will be to AGI
What Chickens are to humans...

... Enjoy your KFC

Jennifer Kayla | Theogrin 🦊Feb 15

When you tell those in charge of entrenched, seemingly eternal projects that collapse is just around the corner, observe their reactions.

Those closest to the epicenter, and projects closest to collapse, will simply dismiss you out of hand; those a little farther away will become angry.

A person who thinks, asks why, and takes things into proper consideration is a far better person to have in charge. They're also going to probably take off before things become truly unfixable...

Amorpheus Feb 15

@Daojoan Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future, too. (Marcus Aurelius)

endolexi Feb 15

@Daojoan tbh I sometimes think 'smart investors' don't believe in eternity at all. They try to make as much money as quickly as they can while the getting is good. Wasting resources on reforming / adapting huge organisations to new conditions will never be as attractive as just jumping ship and exploit the next possibly big thing you can run into overdrive, extract all value, then drop it. Repeat until earth is a barren husk, at which point you hope to have reached for the stars.

The Eternal Empire is called Exploitation.

endolexi Feb 15

@Daojoan (oh and of course they don't care if something is clearly an uneconomic scam (AI) or pyramid scheme (crypto): as long as they are near the top of pyramid and jump off before it collapses at which point the next pyramid should already be waiting.)

@Daojoan you say in this article that we haven't seen the current mileu make an empire-ending mistake, but I think we have. A number of past empires outran their water supply and we are quickly outrunning ours. Maybe that is a human failing in every time - a disbelief that the tap can run dry. But high water use coupled with diminishing climate-friendliness will clean our clock real quick one of these days.

Hot investment tip - one of these days, the most precious metal will be heavy iron in the form of farm tools - stock up now!

Rome will fall…

@Daojoan Recommended Reading: More Everything Forever by Adam Becker

https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/adam-becker/more-everything-forever/9781541619593/

More Everything Forever

This "smart and wonderfully readable" (New York Times) exposé shows why Silicon Valley’s heartless, baseless, and foolish obsessions—with escaping death...

Hachette Book Group

gkrnours Feb 15

@Daojoan if we thibk about it for three seconds, the day AGI exist, every filthy rich people will replace big part of the economy with it and keep it all to themselves.

They are currently selling spades to gold digger. The day they get a robot that can detect gold, extract it and turn it into jewelry, they'll buy the land and maybe sell the jewelry.

-PeteR JoCepH Feb 15

Rupture. Of. Dream-Momentary.

Scott VE3QBZ Feb 15

@Daojoan New website is really spiffy!

Analog AI Feb 15

@Daojoan however, TESCREAL religion that tech bros subscribe to posits making decisions based on plans at the minimum 50 to 100 years out; so they are able to suspend disbelief for this keep kind of thing

Gytis Repečka Feb 15

@Daojoan Luckily, AGI is not arriving anytime soon, or maybe ever

Post by Gytis Repečka, @[email protected]

Artificial Intelligence (AI) hype is mainly associated with Large Language Models (LLM), which became available due to neural networks trained on very large …

social.gyt.is

Nicole Parsons Feb 22

Every fascist thinks their grift will last forever.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany

They sow the seeds of their own self-destruction almost immediately.

The supposedly "thousand year Reich" lasted 12 years.

The Nerd Reich is unlikely to last even that long.

Why? Because the Big Oil money laundering that is keeping the bubble inflated will dry up eventually.

Nazi Germany - Wikipedia

Palm Oil Detectives Feb 23

@Npars01 @Daojoan It only ends when millions of people resist together and put their very lives on the line in order to stop it!