Mike Elgan

Are the prediction markets taking bets on who will cause the Kessler Syndrome chain reaction? If so, what's the over/under on SpaceX?

https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/23/starlink_satellite_fails_debris/

Starlink satellite fails, polluting orbit with debris and falling toward Earth

: Spacecraft set to burn up in a few weeks, but it could have been worse

The Register
Dec 23 at 5:36pmWeb
Show threadCadeDec 23
@MikeElgan tricky! it is the "cause" of Kessler Syndrome to have an incident that generates a random chunk of space debris, or is it to surround every potential bit of debris with a cloud of "targets" the debris may impact? It is hard to play the prediction market until this fundamental definition is resolved . . .