Max Leibman“Oracle is already underwater on its ‘astonishing’ $300bn OpenAI deal”
Of course it is. *Nobody* is making money on AI.
(Except Nvidia.)
(For now.)
https://www.ft.com/content/064bbca0-1cb2-45ab-85f4-25fdfc318d89
Kevin Karhan 
@maxleibman precisely…
Thomas Sturm@maxleibman This graph is fascinating. Oracle's profit will be entirely eaten by buildout costs if OpenAI's revenue share does not go up by 2027.
If this AI stuff doesn't make huge profits within a year or so, it will literally destroy Oracle.
@maxleibman OpenAI's revenue share would have to double 2026-27 and again 2027-28 to make this make any sense.
That's fucking ridiculous.
Lord Kelvin@kelvin0mql @maxleibman Oh absolutely.
@maxleibman @tsturm
Related...
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:2wnho4op6zqokqe3ycffdjik/post/3m62vubgvws2c
Related...
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:2wnho4op6zqokqe3ycffdjik/post/3m62vubgvws2c
@kelvind.com
#AI & the #Cloud are NOT like a vagina. Good to be in it, but it's not better to be ALL IN it. It's worse if you're all in. #Oracle has a problem in this regard, because it's thinking with its dick - #LarryEllison - & this is yet another situation where being an enormous dick isn't an advantage.
Maxi 12x 💉@tsturm @maxleibman Oh noes, my poor Oracle Cloud "Always Free" VServer! /o\
Sadie
Aatch@tsturm @maxleibman man, I wish this would kill Oracle, but it won't. They'll just do some Enron-level creative accounting and come out the other side with more money, somehow.
@aatch @maxleibman I’d expect them to survive, but if this doesn’t go *just* right, a lot of people will lose their last shirt over this bullshit.
Pick Nick 🇨🇦Ellison is going to have to sell a couple of yachts.
GhostOnTheHalfShellI think the correct fate for him is to have one of those flock surveillance cameras stapled to his forehead, you know so he can be on his best behavior like the rest of us.
He had a reputation in Silicon Valley many decades ago and nothing about his personality has changed in the time since.
Silar@maxleibman let them drown.
Scott Grimmett
Dannyboyguyman
MeaningfulBits@maxleibman if we can somehow take out Larry Ellison and AI in the same blow we might just come out ahead.
Anthony DavidToo bad, so sad.
Burning Joint USANVIDIA is only, "making money," because they know how to cook the books to make an investment look like an asset instead of a liability. They own the debt, so that goes in the assets column. When OpenAI and Anthropic can't pay, that debt they own will depreciate pretty, pretty, pretty rapidly. Could happen a lot faster than people think.
karamazov1879@maxleibman По совковски через жопу!
I wonder what will happen to all the communities that committed to supporting data centers. So much political corruption to no end. The communities pay the price.
Musta dawned on me thusly@maxleibman it’s hard to find a sector where the tool makers make more than the tool users. The sector is economically upside down.
crazyeddie@maxleibman Does NVIDIA actually make any money off the valuation of its stock and its current sale price?
And the money coming in for AI isn't coming in from selling it. It's coming in from investors handing money to NVIDIA in order to spend it on AI. The CEO's then take a HUGE cut of it for whatever it is they do...
So... IS NVIDIA making money on AI? Or can we say even that's not happening?
@crazyeddie Nvidia sells the GPUs that underlie the LLMs that are losing everyone else money, and they do so very profitably.
However, you’re not wrong to question whether they make money, because they are getting involved in some increasingly speculative and circular financing arrangements to keep selling those GPUs.
However, you’re not wrong to question whether they make money, because they are getting involved in some increasingly speculative and circular financing arrangements to keep selling those GPUs.
@maxleibman Right. It's still morning and I forget they're actually doing the hardware research and that has value outside AI. That one company in Taiwan also that actually builds them.
So yeah, they're still pulling in actual earnings.
Site Reliability Enby@crazyeddie @maxleibman
Yes. They just beat earnings.
"In a gold rush, sell shovels."
NVDA are making more off it than anyone else. Yes, it's still a bubble and their stock is going to shit the bed when it pops, but right now the earnings result means the music continues for another 3 months.
Yes. They just beat earnings.
"In a gold rush, sell shovels."
NVDA are making more off it than anyone else. Yes, it's still a bubble and their stock is going to shit the bed when it pops, but right now the earnings result means the music continues for another 3 months.
DJ PurrperlThis is a very concise summary:
https://luzeed.org/p/grimacing/896972860399180902