When the future is too uncertain for forecasts, try scenario planning.
Start by finding the biggest unknowns that could change your strategy. Then build 2–4 realistic but very different scenarios around them.
Test your current plan against each one. Look for weak spots.
Find actions that work no matter which future happens.
Don’t just bet on one “most likely” outcome. Learn from past surprises to check your own biases. (1/2)