I've noticed news articles about the looming 2026 #ACA premium hikes claiming that "average" increases will be 18%. This is based on a @kff.org study from last month, but that's not what it said. It said MEDIAN rate hikes will be 18%. AVERAGE increases? 23.4%. acasignups.net/25/09/03/exc...

Exclusive: Full-price 2026 ACA...
Exclusive: Full-price 2026 ACA premium rate hikes to average 23.4% (semi-final)

IMPORTANT: See here for methodology & state-by-state analysis Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease. As of September 2nd, I've managed to fill in preliminary weighted average 2026 rate filings for all 50 states +DC as well as the final/approved rate filings for 15 states. While it will move up or down slightly as more states finalize their 2026 filings, as of this writing, the weighted average rate increase for unsubsidized enrollees is 23.4% nationally. This is the 2nd highest year-over-year gross rate hike since the ACA overhauled the individual market starting in 2014.

ACA Signups
The avg. rate increases range from as low as an 0.2% *drop* in Alaska to a stunning 36.8% increase in Mississippi. However, that slight drop in Alaska doesn't mean much given that the average full price plan costs over $1,100/month to begin with.
Most of these are preliminary filings; some will drop a bit as final/approved rate decisions are made by state regulators. With that said, right now in actual dollars, IDAHO is set to have the lowest avg premiums at $530/mo while WEST VIRGINIA will have the highest at a jaw-dropping $1,302/mo.
That's $15,624/yr in premiums. Keep in mind that the median household income in West Virginia was $60,798/yr last year, and the avg. household size is 2.4 people. #FunWithMath data.census.gov/profile/West...

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Explore Census Data

And the REAL issue for 92% of the ~24 million Americans with #ACA coverage isn't the *gross* premium increase, it's how much their *NET* (effective) premium changes after the enhanced tax credits expire & the Trump Admin's changes to the PAPI formula go into effect. acasignups.net/ira-subsidy-...

How much more will ACA enrolle...
How much more will ACA enrollees have to pay if the enhanced subsidies expire? (updated)

USE THE DROPDOWN MENU ABOVE TO PICK A STATE. 9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification: Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so: I should also note that I've started cross-posting key entries at Substack as well. It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

ACA Signups
Update: File this under “be careful what you wish for” I suppose… The first time I see a headline accurately describe the actual average gross rate hike percentage using my data and it’s in…a spam email soliciting donations. (Seriously, POC is a great organization; I just found this amusing.)