Okay, here it is. This is the unofficial official timeline of #AI. I'm going to tell you what to expect, and it's definitely not: this all goes away and we return to before.

Are you ready for this? Are you sure? Well, read on.

Before I continue, I'm going to lay out some AI #benchmarks that we'll use to define "how good / scary is this AI?" This is in rough order of difficulty.

#Lovelace #Test for #Emergence: "Can a system produce surprising and useful outputes that weren't explicitely programmed via weak emergence?"

#Loebner Test: "Can a computer fool casual human judges in text conversations?" ( #Modern #LLM AIs are close to this )

#Turing Test (Original Imitation Game): "A man or a computer and a woman are both answering text interrogations trying to convince them that they are the woman. Can the computer perform as well as the man?" (This was the actual orginial #TuringTest.)

Strengthened #Imitation Game: "A man or a #computer and a woman are both answering text interrogations. Can the computer perform as well as the woman?"

#Coffee Test: "Can a #system enter a strangers house with no prior infor and using #perception, imitation, and #reasoning figure out how to make a cup of coffee?"

#College #Student Test: "Can a robot enroll in college, attend classes like an actual student, learn from the instructions things it didn't know before, and graduate?"

#VoightKampff Test: "Can a machine withstand adversarial exper interrogation and still pass as #human?"

#Harnad's Total Turing Test: "Is the system indistinguishible from humans in every aspect?" (This is a #DuckTest.)

Non #Duck Test: "Even with full access to internals, can experts find no evidence that it isn't a genuine human mind?"

Pre #2020: #Factorizing Tools

These #AI wre #DeepLearning breakthroughs. #Word2Vec, #DeepDream and #AlphaGo solved novel, previously unsolvable, problems.

If you weren't in the field, you might not think these were AI, and #GPT 2 might have surprised you.

#2020 to #2030: AI Toy #Agents

This is the modern AI landscape. Large laguage models and multimosal demos as playthings: #chatbots, #image #generators, and simple task #agents.

#Loebner Test likely to be passed this year or the next couple.

#2030 to #2040: #AI #Assistant

Presistent, context aware helpers. They can handle sceduling, multi task steps, integrate with other tech. Have a theory about how their actions will affect the user and navigate around that.

2032 Original Turing Test passed at 3 Trillion Parameters.

2036 Strengthened Turing Test passed at 15 Trillion Parameters.

#2040 to #2050: #AGI
General purpose #robots and agents with broad #autonomy. Fluent in role plays, can perform any basic physical task, continously learning and interacting with the physical world.

2041 the Coffee Test is passed at 75 Trillion Parameters.

2044 the #Robot College Student is passed at 250 Trillion Parameters.

2050 Voight-Kampff is passed at 2 Quadrillion Parameters

#2050 to #2060: Scary #AGI
Near human to human brain scale #intelligence. Often indistinguishable from human. Potentially #conscious.

2055 passes the Total Turing Test at 10 Quadrillion Parameters.

#2060 and Beyond: This is beyong the forecast horizon. Any prediction beyond this point is entirely speculative.
incredible how AI went from β€˜my neural net beat the world champion at Go’ to β€˜here’s a chatbot that lies to you in corporate voice’ β€” what a journey πŸ€–πŸš€ #AI #DeepLeaning #oops