Mastodawn

Charles Gaba Jul 2

📣 Now that the #MAGAMurderBill is back at the House, I'm updating my House District-level healthcare enrollment pie charts w/the latest data, 2024 partisan lean & the population at risk of losing coverage highlighted. Next up: #CALIFORNIA (districts 1 - 18: acasignups.net/cd-pie-chart...

House District Enrollment: Cal...

House District Enrollment: California (01 - 18) (now w/high-res PDFs!)

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels. With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage. USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT. You can find the data sources & methodology explanation links here. (Note: I've broken California's 52 House districts into 3 pages. This one includes districts 1 - 18; use the dropdown menu to select districts 19 - 36 or 37 - 52). UPDATE 4/21/25: Scroll down for high-def printable PDF versions of each district! UPDATE 7/1/25: I've updated the web versions of the graphics with the most up-to-date enrollment data I have access to. The black sections w/the ⚠️ symbol are those most at risk of losing healthcare coverage due to H.R. 1, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (aka the #MAGAMurderBill).

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Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA01 Doug LaMalfa (R): Trump won by 24.9% ~35,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~86,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA02 Jared Huffman (D): Harris won by 45.2% ~44,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~64,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA03 Kevin Kiley (R): Trump won by 3.8% ✅ ~45,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~79,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA04 Mike Thompson (D): Harris won by 31.2% ~35,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~92,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA05 Tom McClintock (R): Trump won by 17.7% ~36,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~110,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA06 Ami Bera (D): Harris won by 13.9% ~34,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~97,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA07 Doris Matsui (D): Harris won by 29.7% ~34,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~95,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

#CA08 John Garamendi (D): Harris won by 43.6% ~34,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~117,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA09 Josh Harder (D): Trump won by 1.8% ⚠️ ~41,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~49,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA10 Mark DeSaulnier (D): Harris won by 33.8% ~40,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~60,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA11 Nancy Pelosi (D): Harris won by 67.7% ~35,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~81,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA12 Lateefah Simon (D): Harris won by 73.9% ~38,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~156,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA13 Adam Gray (D): Trump won by 5.4% ⚠️ ~37,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~62,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA14 Eric Swalwell (D): Harris won by 35.4% ~38,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~64,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA15 Kevin Mullin (D): Harris won by 47.9% ~34,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~49,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA16 Sam Liccardo (D): Harris won by 48.5% ~32,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~44,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA17 Ro Khanna (D): Harris won by 37.9% ~32,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~121,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

#CA18 Zoe Lofgren (D): Harris won by 29.5% ~31,000 ACA exchange enrollees at risk ~61,000 Medicaid expansion* enrollees at risk *aka MEDI-CAL

Charles Gaba Jul 2

That's it for tonight...I'll post updated versions for the remaining 34 CA districts tomorrow & potentially CO & CT. Again, prior versions are available at the link for *every* House district, those are just slightly outdated & don't highlight the at-risk categories. acasignups.net/piecharts

Bringing Pie Charts to a Knife...

Bringing Pie Charts to a Knife Fight: Medicaid, ACA & Medicare enrollment by House District! (updated)

Originally posted 2/26/25 Political battles are usually won based on appealing to emotion, not to facts, policy or logic. However, you should still have those facts at your disposal for two reasons: First, they still help you craft appeals to emotion. Second, they also help you craft the actual policy. Besides, I'm a data guy; my primary job is to help put facts & policy into easily-understandable context. Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels. As noted in the methodology for each, there's a small amount of fuzziness in some of the numbers for a couple of reasons, the main one being that the "as of" date varies depending on the type of coverage--Medicaid/CHIP total numbers are as of last October, while ACA Expansion Medicaid is as of last June; Medicare data is as of September 2024; and ACA exchange QHPs/BHPs are as of January 2025.

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