Mastodawn

An important but inconvenient fact to remember about NYPD "work stoppages" and "quiet quitting."

When NYPD intentionally makes fewer arrests and does less police work in protest, violent crime goes *down*
🙂🙃

Read that again. Violent crime goes *down* when cops quit.

And we've known why since 1970

Once you understand a few things about US policing, this outcome becomes incredibly obvious and unavoidable.

First, understand that "Law and Order, SVU," is not how policing works, and not what police do.

What most police do, most of the time, is arrest and fine innocent Black people.

This makes it unsafe for Black people to call the cops in any circumstances. A Black person that has recently had a violent and racist encounter with the cops, will not call the cops to save you if they see you being assaulted.

So the more "policing" happens, the greater this depressive effect.

The irony:

As you ramp up "policing," it becomes impossible to catch and arrest any real, violent criminals... because you betrayed and violated all of the civilians in the communities that you were supposed to partner with.🤦🏿‍♂️

You created the pre-condition for ineffective and futile police work.

As an NYC resident, you pay $12B a year for a police force that is not good at what you want them to be good at: solving and preventing murder, theft, and sexual assault.

For example, the most stolen items in NYC are smartphones and bikes. NYPD doesn't even recognize the most recommended bike lock🤡

https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/112451441016741832

1/3

Let me bring it home for y'all using a topical example: ICE.

ICE has always been bad, but recently it's ramped up. It doesn't matter if an *individual* ICE agent is a good person or a bad person. The *system* of ICE now requires them to hit a deportation quota, so they are all targeting civilians.

There are dangerous undocumented immigrants. Very dangerous. Consider the 100 most dangerous undocumented immigrants in a population of 12 million undocumented people. People like "Big Dragon."

But you cannot find them.

Suppose the ICE Dangerous Fugitive Apprehension Team is looking for Big Dragon

https://www.tiktok.com/@adrianembrey/video/7269578282482322731

Suppose the hypothetical Big Dragon threatened to shoot an undocumented taco cart vendor on Wilshire Blvd in LA, in front of over 100 people, 80 of whom were undocumented.

Then the ICE team shows up, looking for people to "come down to DHS and make a statement."

No one is talking. No one is going🙅🏽‍♀️

This is beyond "Stop snitching," and a cultural revulsion to cooperating with police.

This is beyond "Snitches get stitches," and fear of reprisal from the hypothetical Big Dragon or his associates.

This is a rational understanding that giving a statement holds a real risk of detention to CECOT.

Would the other taco vendors have been more likely to call Immigra on the hypothetical Big Dragon:

* In the 1990s, before the creation of ICE?

* In the 2000s, after ICE was created, but before this round of mass deportations?

* Now, in the full fascism and mass deportation era?

If ICE does an NYPD style "work stoppage" and doesn't deport a single person for a period of 6 months...

Do you think that would increase or decrease the likelihood that an undocumented person would be willing to help ICE find and arrest the hypothetical Big Dragon?

Consider a kind, undocumented taco stand vendor in LA. In 20 years he has never even thought of carrying a gun before. He had always assumed that if he ran into trouble, he would just call 911.

Now he realises that he can't call 911. ICE.

And he just saw hypothetical Big Dragon threaten a man...

2/3

TikTok - Make Your Day

If you understood this thread, then you will understand why due to ICE's recent actions:

*Arrests of violent criminals who are undocumented will go down🤡

*Violent crime by undocumented people will go up

*Unlicensed gun ownership among undocumented people will go up

So ICE is *creating* crime.

You can prioritize deporting the 100 most dangerous undocumented people, who commit the vast majority of the violent crimes.

Or you can prioritize deporting the 12 million other undocumented people.

But you can't prioritize both.

Again, to put the numbers in perspective:

Of ~12 million undocumented people, 50,000 are in ICE detention. That's bad.

Of ~20 million Black men, 4 million will be imprisoned at some point in their life. Not a typo. 1 in 5.

Those are horrific numbers.

3/3

Nicovel0 🍉Jun 29

@mekkaokereke and of course most crime against undocumented migrants is committed by unscrupulous employers

sidereal Jun 29

@mekkaokereke I appreciate these posts a lot. You're absolutely right.

Since you're talking about numbers

Trump wants 3K people a day deported, and ICE is already running out of their whole budget for all of 2025 and failing to keep up with those numbers anyway.

So 3K a day x 365 = ~1.09 million. Trump decided he wanted 1 million people deported and worked back from there.

But horror aside, it's not a realistic plan. He's not even giving them the funding they need.

aburka 🫣Jun 29

@sidereal @mekkaokereke that's being addressed in the budget bill, and with no injunctions he can order them to arrest anyone anywhere for any reason. It's gonna get a lot worse.

@aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke A *lot* worse. And they will not stop at immigrants, especially with legal protections erased due to the recent Supreme Court decision and attempts to suspect habeas corpus altogether. Anyone with brown skin, an unfamiliar accent, or even who just looks wrong at an ICE agent will be at risk.

Andreas K Jun 29

@hosford42 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke You missed the point.

They are coming for the whites that are not MAGA too.

@yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke I didn't miss it. Just focused on other things. This whole thing is a disaster for everyone. There are those of us who see it coming, and those of us who are blithely unaware, but no one will be spared the devastation, not even those *on* team MAGA.

Dr. Eric J. Fielding, PhD Jun 29

@hosford42 @yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke News stories are interviewing small business owners who voted for Trump but had all their employees arrested

@EricFielding @hosford42 @yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke

Schadenfreude.
-or-
FAFO

@c_merriweather @EricFielding @yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke Or, I wish to god these people would figure out it's the leopard party before *all* our faces get eaten.

@hosford42 @EricFielding @yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke I hope so, too.

I will say the unspoken:

I am concerned that it may take a violent revolt to get the MAGA/ billionaires/ Christofascists beaten down enough for them to crawl back under their collective rocks. They are a numerical minority of fanatics, who get joy from inflicting suffering; either for ideological (eugenics) or religious ("The Rapture") reasons.

If they "win," the environment and humanity as a whole will suffer.

Note: I am not advocating violence (hello, ICE).

@c_merriweather @EricFielding @yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke Definitely none of us here would ever advocate violence to protect ourselves and our fellow humans from violence. That would be absurd!

aburka 🫣Jun 29

@c_merriweather @hosford42 @EricFielding @yacc143 @sidereal @mekkaokereke at the minimum we're going to need a new Constitution

@aburka @c_merriweather @EricFielding @yacc143 @sidereal @mekkaokereke Some recommendations I'd like to make to the authors:

* No presidential pardons
* No executive orders
* No executive appointments
* Complete separation of control between domestic and foreign forces, as in two completely separate executive branches
* No president (we can have small special-purpose committees or something if we really need rapid executive response that badly)
* No winner-takes-all simple plurality voting system
* No electoral college
* Proportional representation by some means or other for *all* offices
* No more two-party system
* No corporate "speech" (citizens united)
* No campaign finances; a single joint program that gives equal footing to all candidates
* No legal bribery, aka lobbying
* No for-profit corporations or other means for billionaires to come into existence

A Flock of Beagles Jun 29

@hosford42 @aburka @c_merriweather @EricFielding @yacc143 @sidereal @mekkaokereke

while there is nothing inherently wrong with constitutions, i think it's important to consider who would write this constitution, and what process would be used to write it. if the expectation is for the state to remain intact, then many of these items are self-defeating.

it's not possible to legislate away the wealth of the rich any more than it is possible to vote away their wealth. this is why it's necessary to organise at the sites of exploitation, not only for better hours, wages, and working conditions, but also for abolition of the wage system and private ownership of the means of production. that is the fundamental reason for building co-ops, and why unions are an important part of doing that. this is what anarcho-syndicalism is all about!

> anarcho-syndicalism

Honestly, I don't truly know what this term means; I just call things as I see them. I'd be interested to learn more, though, if you have a good resource handy.

#AnarchoSyndicalism

A Flock of Beagles Jun 30

@hosford42 it is the idea that unions and co-ops, working together and building each other, are a means to defeat and abolish capitalist exploitation and also build a better world.

the preamble to the IWW constitution has good examples of some anarcho-syndicalist principles.

https://www.iww.org/preamble/

@burnitdown Awesome! You know what tells you that you're truly on the right track with an idea? When you find out you're not even close to being the first one who thought of it. :)

aburka 🫣Jun 30

@burnitdown @hosford42 @c_merriweather @EricFielding @yacc143 @sidereal @mekkaokereke definitely with you on constitution-writing being a fraught process and the necessity of labor organizing... I don't really think a loose collective of anarchists is going to keep Stephen Miller out of power though 🤷‍♀️

A Flock of Beagles Jun 30

@aburka @hosford42 @c_merriweather @EricFielding @yacc143 @sidereal @mekkaokereke

co-ops are not "loose collectives of anarchists".

if you want to return housing to those who live in it, a housing co-op is a way to do that. a way to build a housing co-op is to start with a tenant union.

Andreas K Jun 30

@hosford42 @aburka @c_merriweather @EricFielding @sidereal @mekkaokereke Ah.

Executive orders are actually fine. Well, for that what they actually are. Orders to the executive branch employees how they are supposed to do their job. Clarifying some details of the laws. Choosing an implementation if the laws allow choice.

Now former administrations have played with EOs that crossed the line into illegality, but it was mostly fine.

#Trumpregime turned them into a vehicle for “leader orders”

Andreas K Jun 30

@hosford42 @aburka @c_merriweather @EricFielding @sidereal @mekkaokereke The issue with the US constitution is twofold.

a) it's old, and it was even then a compromise (never forget you are talking in truth about a federal polity spanning a whole continent.

b) it was developed further mostly by the courts, not politics, so many details are actually not there in the text. You'd need to consult court verdicts (mostly SCOTUS) to see what the effective constitution is.

Andreas K Jun 30

And that leads to the current issue, the conservative counter-revolution, back to the 19/18th century, let by a relative “young” (by SCOTUS standards) SCOTUS majority. So your “back to the past” nightmare will continue for many decades.

Whalejuicesmoothie Jun 29

@c_merriweather @hosford42 @EricFielding @yacc143 @aburka @sidereal @mekkaokereke speak for yourselves, my shits loaded. Words of advice: go find a range and practice, their guys are already tuned up.

@bonafried
Last time I went to a range, I did better than many of the "guys." I have patience, and don't believe in wasting lead.

Maybe it is also time to finish the long bow ... and put bodkin points on the arrows.

Joan Albright Jun 29

@sidereal @mekkaokereke Which is why he wants his Big Stupid Bill to pass.

Nick Silkey🎙️N5ILK 🪓🪵 🪣💧Jun 30

@sidereal @mekkaokereke in a way the numbers feel like they don't matter.

Blame poor brown people for systemic problems.
Ask for lots of taxpayer cash to combat said lies.
Fumble around a lot and generally sew terror as part of the fracas.
If you hit numbers, find a lie to ask for more funding.
If you don't hit numbers, find a lie to ask for more.
I tend to think the numbers don't matter to the forces at hand. The sewed terror is the end.

sidereal Jun 30

@nicksilkey @mekkaokereke 100%

They don’t even have the facilities to lock up millions

Matilda Love Jun 29

@mekkaokereke me i like to ditch the framing of "how does this affect violent crime by immigrants" and look more at the frame of "how many magats are taking this as a sign from their god that they should crank up the violence against brown people"

(yknow, in addition to the obvious violence on ice's part directly)

Philip Mallegol-Hansen Jun 29

@mekkaokereke Heck, even as a white, now US-citizen, immigrant to this country, *I* am starting to rethink whether I need to arm myself explicitly for protection *from* the law.

And if I am thinking that in my position of relative privilege, you bet others are too.

curtosis Jun 29

@philip @mekkaokereke Not to mention people *claiming to be* the law.

αxel simon ↙︎↙︎↙︎Jun 29

@mekkaokereke Idiotic Crime Enablers, then.

Excellent thread.

Misuse Case Jun 29

@mekkaokereke I am not surprised about ICE creating crime: policing seems to create a lot of crime. And that’s not even taking into account cops who are in murder gangs or drug dealing gangs.

Orca 🌻 | 🎀 | 🪁 | 🏴🏳️‍⚧️Jun 29

@mekkaokereke They would choose to prioritize deporting the 12 million other undocumented people for real, though...

Nick Silkey🎙️N5ILK 🪓🪵 🪣💧Jun 30

@mekkaokereke and none of those millions get to freely cast ballots for representation ever again. 👀

A system is what it does. Heckuva job, Brownie. ✌️💙

Riley S. Faelan Jun 30

@mekkaokereke as for #1, not according to Official Statistics. Darth Pumpkin will smear everybody whom his goons arrest as "violent criminals".

wasabi brain Jun 29

@mekkaokereke the presidential report that came out after Ferguson was very eye opening for me. These cities dependent on fining and jailing poor minorities create more poverty, more desperation, more crime through continuous extraction of these communities

Nick Silkey🎙️N5ILK 🪓🪵 🪣💧Jun 30

@virtualinanity @mekkaokereke the eventual rent seeking behaviors inherent in our modern market using humans as slave labor capital will continue as long as it is allowed to exist profitably. ✌️💙

@mekkaokereke yeah can you even imagine an NYPD helping you with a stolen bike, I mean JFC. obviously my living in NYC for 20 years I didnt have any outrageously bad experiences w cops but many experiences with cops nonetheless (some as victim of a crime, some as accused of a crime [yes me! accused! of turnstyle crime!], and some social) that showed directly how checked out, corrupt, violently reactive, and not very bright a significant percentage of them are

Max Xaine Jun 29

@mekkaokereke #AbolishPolice

Tuckers Nuts Resist! 🇺🇦 Jun 29

@mekkaokereke
That's got to be one of the most blatant scare headlines Eye've ever seen Mr Okereke. The NY Post is doing its utmost to lie about and diminish Mr Mamdani, and using copaganda to do it.

@mekkaokereke it’s funny when a perceived threat comes across as a positive.

So you’re saying if someone who generally opposes the police doing actual bad guy shit gets elected there’s going to less police doing actual bad guy stuff?

How is this bad for anyone that isn’t directly benefiting or profiting from cops doing bad guy stuff? Ohh.. right… the bad guys.

"Crime surge when cops quit", another way to look at that is, that the cops would the commit crimes out of uniform. The cops are a gang of the oligarchs.
Their primary mission is to protect their property.
There are cases where police went to court to seek judgement they have no obligation to help the public.

Rachel Rawlings Jun 29

@mekkaokereke Someone tell the Post to actually watch Gotham or The Penguin to realize that honest cops in Gotham City are as much of an endangered minority as trans folks in Tennessee, and they might not want to make that comparison to the NYPD.

Daughter of Discord Jun 30

Ice-T doing copaganda after being so vocally ACAB as a musical artist hurt my soul

@mekkaokereke "As you ramp up "policing," it becomes impossible to catch and arrest any real, violent criminals... because you betrayed and violated all of the civilians in the communities that you were supposed to partner with.🤦🏿‍♂️"

ouch.