I have a feeling that Google aims at using this sideloading scare / FUD to counter alternative stores required by regulators and courts.
https://www.androidpolice.com/usb-condom-setting/
Upcoming Android setting basically puts a condom on your USB port

Don't get juice jacked; practice safe charging with a USB condom that protects your phone in public

Android Police

#IToldYou

"Google used to do very little curation of the Play Store[…] Years ago, you could publish actual exploits in the official store to gain root access on phones, but now there are multiple reviews and detection mechanisms to reduce the prevalence of malware and banned content. While the Play Store is still not perfect, Google claims apps sideloaded from outside its store are 50 times more likely to contain malware."

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/08/google-will-block-sideloading-of-unverified-android-apps-starting-next-year/

Google will block sideloading of unverified Android apps starting next year

Google says it's no different than checking IDs at the airport.

Ars Technica