Spaceflight ๐๐ 2024 launches ๐
๐บ๐ธ #SpaceX 134, others 20
๐จ๐ณ #China 68
๐ท๐บ #Russia 17
๐ฏ๐ต #Japan 7
๐ฎ๐ณ #India 5
๐ฎ๐ท #Iran 4
๐ช๐บ #Europe 3
๐ฐ๐ต #NorthKorea 1
391 booster #landings so far
https://www.spacex.com/launches
History visualized : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_first-stage_landing_tests#Landings_of_Falcon_9_first-stage_boosters
How many do you expect in total until the end of ๐ 2026 (worldwide, all models) ?
> 600
> 650
> 700
> 800
Poll ended at .
We're now at ~ 400 landings. #SpaceX (#Falcon9) had near to 140 in 2024. Added to 400 for 2 years would be ~680. #Starship, #NewGlenn and #Chinese #reusable rockets not counted and given there wasn't an increase in launches, this is near to 700. Why are so many not able to calculate the number ? ๐ค
At least seven 7๏ธโฃ new private #rockets, all featuring vertical recovery and #reusability โป๏ธ, are aiming to reach #orbit in ๐ 2025 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3290445/spacex-and-7-dwarves-chinese-space-firms-line-enter-reusable-rocket-race
๐ Commercially operated #rockets were responsible for 70% of global launch attempts in 2024, up ๐ from 65% in 2023 and 55% in 2022 https://payloadspace.com/2024-orbital-launch-attempts-by-country
#Starlinkโs subscriber base has grown to nearly 5 million users across 114 countries, representing a 100% increase ๐ in the past year. Starlink is projected to generate $6.6 billion in hardware and subscription revenue in ๐ 2024 and reach $3.8 billion EBITDA https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2024/12/03/spacex-350b-valuation-would-make-the-worlds-most-valuable-startup
The #FCC has granted #SpaceX permission to fly 12,000 #Starlink satellites, and the company has filed paperwork with an international regulator to loft up to 30,000 additional spacecraft.
To put that into perspective, as of Nov. 7, 2022, only 14,450 satellites have been launched in all of history with 6,800 currently active according to the #ESA. https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites.html
#Qianfan #Starlink #Geely #Kuiper #OneWeb #Eutelsat https://www.statista.com/chart/33246/satellite-constellation-projects
Where #Starlink is available https://www.statista.com/chart/34152/countries-by-availability-of-starlink-satellite-internet
#Starlink awaits governmental and regulatory authorisation to begin commercial operations in #India's ๐ฎ๐ณ #telecommunications market, the second-largest globally https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/elon-musks-starlink-may-offer-80-90-times-more-than-capacity-of-rivals-reliance-jio-ses-eutelsat-oneweb/articleshow/119146278.cms
Elon Muskโs Starlink may offer 80-90 times more than capacity of rivals Reliance Jio-SES, Eutelsat OneWeb - The Times of India
India Business News: Starlink, led by Elon Musk, is poised to offer significantly higher data throughput in India compared to its competitors. With infrastructure already
#Amazon is under time pressure โฑ๏ธ. The license issued by the US regulatory authorities for the operation of #satellite internet in 2020 requires half of the satellite network to be completed by ๐ July 2026. The rest must be in orbit by July 2029 โณ. More than 30 additional launches are planned with other companies, such as #Arianespace and #BlueOrigin. Even the competitor #SpaceX is helping out https://www.heise.de/en/news/Amazon-launches-the-first-internet-satellites-for-Project-Kuiper-next-week-10338214.html
#ULA : "Weather is observed and forecast NO GO ๐ for liftoff within the remaining launch window at Cape Canaveral". No new date has been scheduled https://www.cnet.com/science/space/amazon-scrubs-wednesday-rocket-launch-for-its-starlink-satellite-service-rival
#ULA #Kuiper launch rescheduled to Tue Apr 29, 2025 01:00 CEST https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6772
#Amazon said it had established communications with all of the satellites, and the sequence of turning them on was โproceeding as planned.โ The #FCCโs approval of the constellation came with a requirement that at least half ๐ the #satellites needed to be deployed by ๐ July 30, 2026. Industry analysts say the company could get an extension if it has demonstrated substantial progress by then https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/28/science/amazon-kuiper-launch-ula.html
At the end of March, #Starlink consisted of more than 7100 satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ. Over five million people worldwide use the system. #Amazon launched two test satellites into space in ๐ 2023. The plan was to launch the first regular satellites into space in the first half of ๐ 2024. #ULA is set to complete up to five more #satellite transports for the company this year https://www.heise.de/en/news/Amazon-launches-first-Kuiper-satellites-into-space-10366771.html
#Reuters ๐ June 6, 2025 #Starlink ๐ฐ๏ธ has received a licence to launch commercial operations in #India ๐ฎ๐ณ from the telecoms ministry https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/musks-starlink-gets-key-india-licence-telecoms-ministry-sources-say-2025-06-06
Let's assume #Europe ๐ช๐บ is successful and reaches a cadence of 10 launches per year ๐ with the #Ariane6 rocket. One-tenth of the annual subsidy is $35 million. One-hundredth of the development cost is $40 million.
Therefore, European #taxpayers are subsidizing every launch of #satellites for Jeff #Bezos by roughly $75 million ๐ฐ https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/oops-it-looks-like-the-ariane-6-rocket-may-not-offer-europe-any-launch-savings/#page-2
๐ช๐บ #Ariane6 (GTO 4,500 kg, โฌ100 million๐ฐ๐ฐ) : 1๏ธโฃ successful launch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6#List_of_launches
๐ฏ๐ต #H3 (GTO 4,000 kg, $50 million ๐ฐ) : 4๏ธโฃ successful launches https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3_(rocket)#Past_launches
The first controlled ocean ๐ #landing of a #Falcon9 booster was completed in ๐ April 2014. This was followed a little over a year later by the first successful recovery of a Falcon 9 booster on a ground pad in ๐ December 2015.
So, #reusable โป๏ธ launch technologies were most certainly available during the design and early development phases of #Ariane6 ๐ช๐บ https://europeanspaceflight.com/europe-will-introduce-a-reusable-launch-vehicle-in-the-2030s-says-arianespace-ceo
#Arianespace #ESA #decision #reusability #LaunchCost #comparison
The #price of heavy launches to #LEO has fallen from $65,000 ๐ฐ per kilogram to $1,500 ๐ต per kilogramโmore than a 95 percent decrease ๐. A significant factor in the capacity equation is the potential capabilities of #Starship ๐ https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-launch-are-we-heading-for-oversupply-or-a-shortfall
#European ๐ช๐บ and #Japanese ๐ฏ๐ต #SpaceAgencies opted for traditional, expendable ๐๏ธ rockets instead of pushing toward reuse โป๏ธ.
As a result, both of these competitors for commercial #satellite launches are now about a decade behind #SpaceX in terms of launch technology. If the ambitious #Starship rocket is successful, that gap could widen further https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/with-recent-falcon-9-milestones-spacex-vindicates-its-dumb-approach-to-reuse
๐ฎ Preview :
โข Flight Test 11 ๐ could occur in the October time frame
โข 12 likely will be the first flight of the V3 #Starship in early 2026
โข 13 and 14 probably the first orbital flight, complete with operational deployment of #Starlink satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ
โข 15 to 20 #SpaceX is likely to launch two Starships to conduct an in-orbit refueling โฝ test no earlier than the second half of 2026
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/spacex-got-good-heat-shield-data-for-starship-so-what-comes-next
#Europe ๐ช๐บ has fallen behind #SpaceX and other competitors in reusable launch technology. SpaceX began its first Grasshopper tests in ๐ 2012, landed an orbital booster in 2015, and re-flew a first stage for the first time in 2017. At its inception in late 2019, #Themis was intended to make its first hop tests in 2022. The Themis T1H vehicle will likely undergo only short hops, initially about 100 meters https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/09/after-a-very-slow-start-europes-reusable-rocket-program-shows-signs-of-life
#Rousselโs departure 2023 was seen as a response to the continued failure ๐คฆโโ๏ธ to deliver on promised deadlines. #Arianespace expects to reach #Ariane6โs maximum launch cadence of ten missions per year by 2029. The next four years will therefore be pivotal for the company, making it a less than ideal time for a change in leadership https://europeanspaceflight.com/arianegroup-ceo-poached-by-french-train-maker
โข #ESA and its member states forked over $4.4B ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ to develop #Ariane6. Customer launches are unlikely to pay back development costs any time soon.
โข #SpaceX has invested over $5B ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ in #Starship, and the company is focusing on achieving full reusability โป๏ธ
https://payloadspace.com/rocket-development-costs-by-vehicle-payload-research/
๐ 2022 : People writing about #SpaceExploration are mostly cheerleaders ๐ฅณ for the cause, rather than independent observers keeping a watchful eye ๐ on how our national monies ๐ฐ are spent https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2022/06/23/new-book-paints-bleak-picture-of-nasas-human-spaceflight-program/
๐ Literature review
#SpaceEconomy, Di Pippo
The Space Economy, Anderson
To Infinity, Roettgen
The Cosmos Economy, Gregg
#SpaceMining and Manufacturing, Sivolella
Red Moon Rising, Autry, Navarro
Dark Star: A New History of the Space Shuttle, Hersch
Reentry, Eric Berger
Elon Musk, Isaacson
Breaking All the Rules, Cantrell
The New World on #Mars, Robert Zubrin
Spacefarers, Wanjek
The Long #SpaceAge, MacDonald
#SpaceCapitalism, Nelson
The Dimming of Starlight, Munรฉvar
https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/IEA_Space-Economy_Zitelmann_Digital_V3-.pdf
@euspa* says they have no idea about the #Ariane6 costs ๐ค๐ https://fragdenstaat.de/dokumente/275068-replytoaccdocrequest-2026-1_geschwaerzt/
Such as
โข Standard launch costs for Ariane 6 (per variant)
โข The launch price for #Amazon
โข The amount of #subsidies ๐ฐ per launch, including and excluding development costs
* "charged with advancing the #commercialisation and market uptake of #EU ๐ช๐บ Space data and services" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Agency_for_the_Space_Programme#Overview
Six #Falcon9 missions ๐ in one week https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/10/launch-roundup-101425
Galbinus Caeli@spaceflight Isn't Ariane 6 a 2012 proposal? It's a multi government program. Not something that is going to change course at anything quicker than a glacial pace.
Should it have been canceled and re invisioned in 2015? Yeah, probably. But again, government programs don't change quickly.
@GalbinusCaeli NASA's "commercial" program started in 2011, they could have noticed that ~a decade ago. Now it's a bit late to sponsor startups with peanuts
Thomas Sturm@spaceflight @GalbinusCaeli Yep. Europe was asleep at the wheel for a decade.
๐ฏ๐ต #Japan plans the first flight ๐ of the most powerful ๐ช version of the #Mitsubishi Heavy Industries #H3 launcher as early as ๐ Oct. 21 https://aviationweek.com/space/launch-vehicles-propulsion/japan-sets-launch-plan-inaugural-heavy-lift-h3-mission
Successful launches ๐ 24/25 :
๐ฏ๐ต #H3 Feb 2024-Feb 2025 : 4๏ธโฃ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3_(rocket)#Past_launches (#LaunchCost 4 tons to SSO ~ US$50 million ๐ต)
Next launch : Oct 21, 2025 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/2552
๐ช๐บ #Ariane6 2025 : 2๏ธโฃ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6#List_of_launches (Ariane 62 : 7 tons to SSO โฌ100 million ๐ถ๐ถ)
Next launch : Nov 29, 2025 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7722
๐ฎ๐ณ #GSLV Feb 2024 - Jul 2025 : 3๏ธโฃ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_GSLV_launches#2024 (3 tons to SSO US$47 million ๐ต)
Next launch : 4th Quarter, 2025 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7876
The more powerful, four-booster variant of the #Ariane6 rocket will not be launched until 2026 ๐ฅฑ. The first Ariane 64 rocket had been expected to launch in late 2025, carrying the first batch of #Amazonโs Project #Kuiper satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ https://europeanspaceflight.com/arianespace-pushes-first-ariane-64-flight-back-to-2026/
๐ฏ๐ต 2nd #H3 mission this year ๐ Sunday October 26, 2025 โ 2:00 AM CEST https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEq84QrSEA
Launch of New unmanned cargo transfer spacecraft1๏ผHTV-X1๏ผ aboard the 7th H3 Launch Vehicle (H3 F7)
#HTVX1 is scheduled to arrive at the #ISS on October 29, where it will be captured using the #Canadarm2 #robotic arm. It is roughly 2 m shorter than its predecessor, but has roughly the same payload capacity. HTV-X can fly in #orbit ๐ for another year and a half after disembarking to perform in-orbit #experiments and technical demonstrations for customers https://payloadspace.com/jaxas-new-cargo-vehicle-is-headed-to-the-iss
๐ฏ๐ต 3rd #H3 mission this year ๐ Monday December 22, 2025 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7078/
๐ #H3's first stage performed nominally, but the second stage engine cutoff occurred 27 seconds later than planned, while the second ignition was delayed by 15 seconds and terminated almost immediately. The #satellite and second stage are expected to reenter ๐ฅ within a few orbits https://spacenews.com/japans-h3-suffers-second-stage-anomaly-qzs-5-satellite-lost/
3๏ธโฃ The third commercial launch flown by the #Ariane6 family to date https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/11/sentinel-1d-launch
#Arianespace will complete 18 flights for #Amazon over a three-year period aboard #Ariane 64 rockets. That means Arianespace will require 64 boosters over the next three years just to fulfill its contract obligations to Amazon https://europeanspaceflight.com/no-urgency-to-upgrade-vega-c-booster-says-esa/
Frank@spaceflight better than putting the money in the war...
@DO3EET do you mean "offensive lasers" ? ๐ค https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/germany-space-russia-china-lasers-satellites-b2912954.html
@DO3EET This is no longer merely a race for market share; it is a dual-track competition where private innovation and #military strategy have become inextricably linked https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3342254/us-china-orbital-arms-race-forging-trillion-dollar-space-economy
#NewGlenn won't launch before at least August 15, more likely September https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/06/second-new-glenn-launch-slips-toward-fall-as-program-leadership-departs
The second launch ๐ of #BlueOriginโs #NewGlenn rocket is now expected in late October or early ๐ November https://spacenews.com/escapade-launch-on-new-glenn-planned-for-late-october-or-early-november
2nd #Kuiper launch with #Atlas ๐ Mon Jun 16, 2025 17:25 UTC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLQstWj6xsY
ULA's Atlas V Launches Amazon's Project Kuiper (KA-02)
#ULA's Tory Bruno : "Possible issue with a GN2 purge line that cannot be resolved inside the count. We will need to stand down for today. Weโll sort it and be back."
#ULA #Atlas #Kuiper launch ๐ Mon Jun 23, 2025 14:56 UTC https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6771
Project #Kuiper launch ๐ by #SpaceX ๐ Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:35 UTC https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7380
#Amazon is planning to send another 24 #Kuiper satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ into orbit no earlier than August 7, 2025, bringing the total deployed so far to 102 https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/amazon-project-kuiper-starlink-australian-broadband
#Amazon must have half of its planned 3,236 internet #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ in operation by July 2026. The constellation must then be complete by July 2029. Amazon plans to compete with #Starlink. Against this backdrop, the fact that Amazon has now used a #SpaceX rocket to transport its satellites into space for the second time is not without a certain #irony ๐ https://www.heise.de/en/news/After-weather-related-problems-Amazon-launches-more-Kuiper-satellites-10517685.html
KA-03 * will send another 27 satellites into orbit, bringing our total spacecraft deployed to 129 #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/project-kuiper-satellite-rocket-launch-progress-updates
* ๐ Sep 25, 2025 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6770
#SpaceX wants to deploy next-generation #D2C #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ, which have 20 times the throughput capacity of the first generation. These are to be positioned at an altitude of 326 to 355 kilometers. The total of 15,000 satellites could provide D2C services for over one billion people https://www.heise.de/en/news/SpaceX-plans-new-15-000-satellites-for-mobile-communications-from-space-10672055.html
When #Amazon announced its launch procurement in 2022, it notably bypassed SpaceX in favor of #NewGlenn, #Ariane 6 and #ULAโs #Vulcan, even though none of those vehicles had flown at the time. In late 2025, Amazon #Leo added to its already historic purchase of launch capacity by securing 10 additional #Falcon9 launches from #SpaceX https://spacenews.com/amazon-buys-10-more-falcon-9-launches/
"Given the pace at which #Amazon is launching satellites, I can โsee why they would think it would take other people centuries to launch" https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/fcc-chair-criticizes-slow-pace-amazon-satellite-launches-2026-03-11/
A #MassDriver* is a very long track stretching across the lunar ๐ surface, angled skyward ๐ at its far end, which is lined with hundreds of #electromagnetic coils. These fire in a precise sequence. The bucket ๐ฆ never makes mechanical contact with any surface, guided entirely by the interplay of magnetic ๐งฒ fields, which is why these systems have a theoretical operational lifespan of up to millions of launches with negligible wear https://fastcompany.co.za/co-design/2026-02-24-how-elon-musks-moon-cannon-could-transform-space-travel
Winchell Chung โ๐Apparently lots of Musk fans have never read Heinlein's The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress...
@nyrath what were they supposed to learn from it ?
How a mass driver constructed on the moon was used to bombard Earth cities. The explosions were not nuclear (no radiation) but were of nuclear intensity.
@nyrath similar to using a hammer to either drive in a nail or knock on someone's head ?
More like "Do you think it is a good idea to give Elon Musk the power to rule the world?"
Michael Gemar@spaceflight There simply isnโt nearly enough launch capacity for Amazon to put up that many satellites by 2026. I bet instead that (in the current climate) the regulatory requirements are extended or waived.