In 1911, #Jerusalem’s population was 67% #Jews (indigenous & #European transplants), 15% #Christians, & 12% #Muslims

#Zionism as a movement didn't gather steam until AFTER #WWI.

In 1913, #Zionist diplomat Nahum #Sokolow pitched to #British that the movement aspired to "till the soil of #Palestine," but the British rebuffed him because #Arabs & #OldTurks in #Turkey, a friendly power, opposed the #Jewish #nationalist movement

Soon afterward, #Europe descended into WWI

https://www.amazon.com/Balfour-Declaration-Origins-Arab-Israeli-Conflict/dp/1400065321/
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Amazon.com

⬆️ November 1914: Anwar #Pasha of #Turkey aligns with #CentralPowers (#Germany and #Austria-#Hungary) and enters the #GreatWar.

Early 1915: #Russia tells #EntentePartners it wants #Constantinople (now #Istanbul) & #Dardanelles; #Britain & #France reluctantly agree.

#Balfour, #Churchill, & #Kitchener favor annexation of #Arabia, #Palestine, #Mesopotamia (#Iraq) from #Ottomans; #EdwardGrey opposes.

A separate #intrigue was playing out between Turkey, #Arab leaders, & #Hussein (Sharif of Mecca)
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⬆️ Grand Sharif #Hussein secretly dispatched emissaries to main #Arab leaders

1915: #Hussein learns of #Turkish plans to depose him, and to assert #Ottoman control over #Hejaz

#AlAhd & #AlFatat join forces; conceive the #DamascusProtocol, foundation of #ArabRevolt

Implicit in the Damascus Protocol, Grand Sharif Hussein would preside over the "Great Arab State" containing #Palestine.

#Britain Makes Hussein an offer for an independent #sovereign #Muslim State & full control over holy sites!

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Focusing himself more on the #DamascusProtocol than the actual British offer, #Hussein accepted the British offer

#Britain reaffirmed support for independent #Arabia with vague borders & #Arab #Caliphate per #Kitchener's original letter in which it would, in exchange for support from the Arabs (prior to the outbreak of the #GreatWar) guarantee independence, rights & privileges against all foreign aggression, in particular, that of #Ottomans

That offer was NOT based on the Damascus Protocol
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⬆️
#Hussein was LIVID.

He was under the impression that the #British had agreed to the #DamascusProtocol document, prepared by #Arab secret societies #AlFatat & #AlAhd, declaring that Arabs would revolt in alliance with #UK. In return, UK would recognize Arab independence in the area specified by the Damascus Protocol, as they were ESSENTIAL to the well-being of any future #Arab State

But British had offered VAGUE borders. Immediately after outbreak of #WWI, #McMahon took up the border issue

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⬆️

With #Turkey entering #WWI against the #British & #Allies, the whole calculation had changed.

#McMahonHusseinCorrespondence that ensued had 2 main reasons:

1. Counteract #Ottoman #jihad against Allies
2. Maintain support of #Muslims in British #India over which the Ottoman #Caliphate had great sway.

It refined the vague borders of the original #Kitchener letter and carved out specific areas from a future #Arabia.

The dispute on this carve-out is the #cruxOfTheMatter in the conflict.

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⬆️

The dispute regarding the extent of the coastal EXCLUSION in the #McMahonHusseinCorrespondence is at the heart of the #Israeli-#Palestinian conflict. #Zionism is just an adjunct to the conflict, not the primary reason.

#Britain excluded #Districts of #Mersina & #Alexandretta, portions of #Syria west of the districts of #Damascus, #Hama, #Homs & #Aleppo.

They reserved the right to administrative control in the #Vilayets of #Baghdad and #Basra because of their interests in #British #India.

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⬆️

They reserved areas where #Britain had existing treaties with #Arab chiefs (Aden to Principalities on East Coast)

They reserved territories in which Britain was free to act without detriment to the interests of their ally, #France.

SUBJECT to above modifications, the #British accepted rest of the limits, frontiers, and borders advocated by #DamascusProtocol.

Nov 5, 1915: #Hussein refused to budge on #Arab claims to land west of #Damascus, #Hama, #Homs & Aleppo, including #Alexandretta

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⬆️

This gave rise to #Britain's #ForwardPolicy, which meant the larger effort to:

1. attack #Alexandretta (now #Iskenderun, a port and naval base on the Mediterranean coast in southern #Turkey), and

2. “roll up #Syria,”

refashioning the #MiddleEast to suit #British imperial interests.

Proponents of the Forward Policy exhorted #London to deal with #Hussein's demands head on.

Speed was of the essence. They believed “if we don’t gain the #Arabs now we might well lose them altogether.”

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⬆️
A separate drama played out in #India.

November 12, 1915: "Greatly disturbed by the assurances given by #McMahon to the Grand Sherif" #Hussein, Lord #Hardinge in India wanted McMahon to backtrack on #Mesopotamia (#Iraq).

“get McMahon out of the hole into which he has fallen… I devoutly hope that this proposed independent #Arab State will fall to pieces if it is ever created. Nobody could possibly have devised any scheme more detrimental to #British interests in the #MiddleEast than this.”
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⬆️

Dec 17, 1915: #McMahon nevertheless received "Green Light" to deal with #Hussein pursuant to the #ForwardPolicy after #Kitchener and #Grey prevail over #Hardinge and Austin #Chamberlain (SoS for #India).

Hussein wanted #British as much as they wanted him, and he too was willing to POSTPONE settling the #BorderIssue.

The deferred question of #Syrian, #Lebanese, & #Palestinian borders, and British role in #Mesopotamia (#Iraq) remained a stumbling block.

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⬆️

The #ThievesBanquet

1. 1915: #Russia wanted #Constantinople (#Istanbul); Invited #Britain & #France to carve out the #Ottoman Empire among themselves

2. #Britain wanted #Suez Canal and land route from #Egypt to #Mesopotamia (#Iraq) and #Persia (#Iran), thence to #India

3. #France wanted #Syria, #Lebanon, & parts of Mesopotamia

Neither #US, nor #Jews in general, nor #Zionism had anything to do with this #GreatPower politics that played out in the #MiddleEast during the #GreatWar (#WWI)

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⬆️

#SykesPicot Agreement to redraw the map of the #MiddleEast

Both #Britain and #France coveted #Palestine

Both agree to government by #InternationalCondominium

#Russia endorsed Sykes-Picot Agreement, which then became a tripartite agreement

ALL 3 parties kept the Sykes-Picot Agreement secret from Grand Sharif #Hussein, which created much ill-will and distrust

Sykes-Picot Agreement was never Implemented after #Bolsheviks renounce claims on #Constantinople & expose the secret treaties.

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#SykesPicot Agreement suffered an inglorious fate, and rightfully so.

THEN, #Britain kicked up a new storm — #Zionism gathered strength!

#WWI changed everything, including #British attitude toward both #Zionism and #Ottoman Empire.

"Turkey gave BRITISH Zionists a reason to hope. When Ottomans entered the War on the side of #CentralPowers, they called into question the future of their own empire, which meant the future of Palestine as well. It took a moment for the implication to sink in."
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"Assume that #Britain won the #GreatWar, against #Turkey as well as against #Germany & #Austria-#Hungary.

The #MiddleEast would drop into the melting pot at last.

And then perhaps the ingot of #Palestine could be pried loose from the great slab of Turkey’s Middle Eastern empire"

Ever since the ascendancy of the #Ottoman Empire & their conquest of #Arabia, Palestinians have suffered despotic Ottoman rule with vague borders, and governed from #Jerusalem & #Beirut under onerous #TurkishYoke
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⬆️ #British #duplicity and the #ArabFacade

#Curzon assumed #Turkey's defeat in the #GreatWar and instructed his committee to "construct a state with an '#Arab Façade,' ruled and administered under British guidance [but] controlled by a native #Mohammedan and as far as possible an Arab staff"

Balfour observed that Arab Façade had a “more or less specious inconsistency with the principle of ‘self-determination.’” Since Arabs were incapable of self-government, a Façade was all they could expect

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⬆️ [Higher up in 🧵] >> Early 1915: #Russia tells #EntentePartners it wants #Constantinople (now #Istanbul) & #Dardanelles; #Britain & #France reluctantly agree.

For centuries, Russia wanted access to warm water ports in the Mediterranean and fought with #Turkey for that access. It finally got one in #Syria after military intervention following #ArabSpring to prop up Bashar #Assad.

Assad's collapse threatens that Russian naval port as well as an air base.

⬇️

Intelligence update via @hanse_mina

⬆️ >> For centuries, Russia wanted access to warm water ports in the Mediterranean and fought with #Turkey for that access. It finally got one in #Syria after military intervention following #ArabSpring to prop up Bashar #Assad.

So it is not ironic or surprising that Turkey is the one that was instrumental in helping #HTS rebels drive #Assad out of Syria into seeking political asylum in Russia.

While #Ukraine remains Russia's top priority, preserving its 2 bases in Syria is next highest.

⬇️

⬆️ >> While #Ukraine remains Russia's top priority, preserving its 2 bases in Syria is next highest.

#Russia is now trying to work with #HTS rebels to secure access to those bases.

Soon after #Oct7, in a congressional testimony, #Biden's Def Sec and Sec State, #Austin and #Blinken, both testified that #Israel-#Hamas conflict and the #Russian aggression in Ukraine are "interlinked" ➡️ https://mastodon.social/@rameshgupta/111336260681292839

Russia's interest in #Syria as a stepping stone to #Africa is another link in that chain

⬆️ >> Soon after #Oct7, in a congressional testimony, #Biden's Def Sec and Sec State, #Austin and #Blinken, both testified that #Israel-#Hamas conflict and the #Russian aggression in Ukraine are "interlinked"

Path from #Kyiv to #TelAviv passes through former #IronCurtain countries #Moldova, #Romania, #Bulgaria, & through #Turkey ➡️ https://mastodon.social/@rameshgupta/111434739906526615

Alternate path passes through Hungary & #Serbia ➡️ https://mastodon.social/@rameshgupta/111434764452759087

#Hungary & #Turkey are the #pincers in #Putin's #revanchistDreams
⬇️

⬆️ >> #Hungary & #Turkey are the #pincers in #Putin's #revanchistDreams.

Not sure if it was this realization that #Putin might be using #Erdogan for his selfish ambitions in #Africa — like he was using #Assad — that caused #Turkey to help #HTS overthrow Assad without alerting #Russia and thus remove Russia from Syria 🤷‍♂️

#Orban's affinity to #Putin is still unexplained. But I hope, as member of #NATO, it is also wary of Russia using #Europe as a stepping stone to Africa and will help thwart it
⬇️

⬆️ #Syria as the linchpin, with #Russia as the common power patron.

#Biden was criticized for withdrawal from #Afghanistan, thus signaling lack of resolve, and that in turn, encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine.

#Obama oversaw Russia's annexation of #Crimea and intervention in Syria. He did nothing. Nor #Trump.

Eventually solved by the Biden admin, as success in Syria was a direct result of #Biden's support for Ukraine — It forced Russia to leave #Assad exposed

youtube.com/watch?v=UB2wY0mGsy0
⬇️

⬆️ >> #Iran and #Russia problems were eventually solved by the Biden admin, as success in Syria was a direct result of #Biden's support for Ukraine — It forced Russia to leave Assad exposed.

Behind the domino effect was strategic thinking by two of Biden's finest, Def Sec #Austin and Sec State #Blinken, who immediately after #Oct7 testified to Congress that the #Ukraine and #Gaza conflicts were #interlinked.

Turns out that #Syria was the linchpin (see 🧵 above)

youtube.com/watch?v=UB2wY0mGsy0
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⬆️ There wasn't enough room above to mention this, but the linked video in the previous post is VERY GOOD.

It has a great analysis of #Syria as the linchpin, with #Russia as the common power patron, and how the fall of #Assad has a domino effect on multiple conflicts in #Europe, #MiddleEast, and #Africa.

video link via @JNSLCT

⬆️ "Candid" photos of #Syria's ousted President Bashar #Assad 👀

Because, why not?

https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-underwear-photos-76746e3b2a5f00b79d01f3ff1c43fa81

Candid photos of Assad found after his fall spark ridicule

Personal photos of ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad have surfaced from his abandoned residences, sparking ridicule among Syrians who until days ago were persecuted for criticizing his carefully crafted public image. The intimate and candid photos were reportedly discovered in albums from Assad’s mansions in the hills of Damascus and Aleppo. They offer a stark contrast to the polished, glamorous image that Assad and his father projected as they led Syria for half a century. Syrians have been fascinated by the background glimpses of a seemingly normal family that held the country in an iron grip and bombed their fellow citizens who disobeyed them.

AP News

⬆️ Another domino is about to fall 👀

#Israel and #Hamas are inching toward a ceasefire deal.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-war-ceasefire-egypt-qatar-264087c7a547031a9433ecbbdcd920d2

Israel and Hamas are inching toward a ceasefire deal, negotiators say

After months of deadlock, Israel and Hamas appear to be moving closer toward a ceasefire to end their 14-month war. Top officials from the U.S., Qatar and Egypt have resumed their mediation efforts in recent weeks and reported greater willingness by the warring sides to wrap up a deal. In a key concession, Hamas officials say they are prepared to show more “flexibility” on the timing of an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said Monday that a deal is closer than ever. The agreement is expected to take place in phases and include a halt in fighting, an exchange of captive Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in aid to Gaza.

AP News
@rameshgupta La Turquie a joué un rôle clé dans l'offensive de Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) contre le régime d'#Assad. Bien qu'Ankara nie toute implication directe, beaucoup s'accordent à dire que cette opération n'aurait pas eu lieu sans son soutien tacite. Les services de renseignement turcs auraient même surveillé le terrain et partagé des informations.Cette dynamique soulève des questions sur l'influence d'#Ankara dans la région. #Géopolitique #Syrie #Turquie

⬆️ @homohortus

[Verbatim translation of above]: #Turkey has played a key role in the #HayatTahriralSham #HTS offensive against the #Assad regime. Although Ankara denies any direct involvement, many agree that the operation would not have happened without its tacit support. Turkish intelligence services have even reportedly been monitoring the terrain and sharing information. This dynamic raises questions about #Ankara's influence in the region. #Geopolitics #Syria #Turkey

⬆️ @homohortus

The decapitation and decimation of #Hamas and #Hezbollah, the ejection of #Russia from #Syria, and the isolation of #Iran — ALL of these happened under #Biden's leadership and with no small measure, by the hard work of Anthony #Blinken, who has made more than a dozen trips to the #MiddleEast since #Oct7.

But this will not stop #Trump from taking credit for reining in Iran and stopping other events of world-changing significance.

https://mastodon.social/@rameshgupta/113637537621508859

@rameshgupta Sous la présidence de Trump, des mesures significatives ont été prises pour renforcer les relations entre les États-Unis et Israël. 🇺🇸🤝🇮🇱 Il a reconnu Jérusalem comme capitale d'Israël et déplacé l'ambassade américaine là-bas, dynamisant ainsi sa base évangélique. ✝️📍 De plus, il a négocié les Accords d'Abraham, retournant l'AS de MBS : En échange de la reconnaissance d'Israël, les US ont vendu des armes à Riyad. #Trump #Israël #AccordsdAbraham #Diplomatie #MoyenOrient

⬆️ @homohortus

>> Under Trump, significant steps have been taken to strengthen US-Israeli relations. 🇺🇸🤝🇮🇱 He recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US embassy there, boosting his evangelical base. ✝️📍

#Trump is transactional, not geopolitical strategist.

Trump's close alliance with #Netanyahu is the reason why the latter repeatedly humiliated #Biden. See my posts tagged #ingrate eg ➡️ https://mastodon.social/@rameshgupta/112844098704260580

This closeness could also be dangerous (#Modi) ➡️ https://mastodon.social/@rameshgupta/111376788032217265

@rameshgupta 🇮🇳🤝🇷🇺 L'Inde renforce ses liens avec la Russie, notamment par des accords énergétiques records. Cette dépendance croissante pourrait compliquer ses relations avec l'Occident, surtout dans un contexte géopolitique tendu. ⚡️🌍 La priorité donnée aux gains politiques intérieurs peut mener à des résultats volatils. Restons vigilants face à ces enjeux ! #Inde #Russie #Géopolitique #Énergie #Stabilité 🌏🔍

⬆️ @homohortus

>> India is strengthening its ties with Russia, including through record energy deals. This growing dependence could complicate its relations with the West…

Historically #India has had closer ties with #Russia than #US, despite its official membership in the #NonAlignedMovement #NAM as a state that didn't formally align with the US or USSR and sought to remain independent, but that is changing. Obviously all countries do what's best in their self-interest

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Non-Aligned-Movement

Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) | Definition, Mission, & Facts | Britannica

Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), international organization dedicated to representing the interests and aspirations of developing countries. The NAM was founded and held its first conference in 1961 under the leadership of Josip Broz Tito, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Jawaharlal Nehru, Kwame Nkrumah, and Sukarno.

Encyclopedia Britannica
@rameshgupta Le non-alignement, initialement une posture de neutralité durant la Guerre froide, a évolué vers un soutien implicite à l'URSS. Ce mouvement, né de la volonté de plusieurs nations de ne pas se ranger derrière les blocs, a été influencé par des leaders comme Nehru et Nasser. Aujourd'hui, il est crucial de réévaluer cette dynamique pour comprendre les enjeux géopolitiques actuels. 🌍✌️ #NonAlignement #GuerreFroide #Histoire #geopolitique

⬆️ @homohortus

>> #NAM Non-alignment, initially a posture of neutrality during the #ColdWar, evolved into implicit support for the #USSR. This movement, born from the desire … not to align themselves with the blocs, was influenced by leaders such as [#India's] #Nehru and [#Egypt's] #Nasser.

Also #Yugoslavia's Josip Broz #Tito, who served as the leader of the #NonAlignedMovement.

#US doctrine was same during Cold War as it was with #GeorgeWBush: "You're either with us or with #terrorists"

@rameshgupta 📜 La Doctrine Truman visait à contenir l'influence soviétique par l'aide économique et militaire aux nations menacées. 🚀 La Doctrine Bush, elle, mettait l'accent sur les frappes préventives et élargissait la définition des menaces. 🦅 GW Bush, comme Poutine et Netanyahou, est un sur-terroriste d'État. #DoctrineTruman #DoctrineBush #PolitiqueÉtrangère #Terrorisme
@rameshgupta La "stratégie de décapitation", inspirée par L'Art de la guerre de Sun Tzu, vise à affaiblir un ennemi en ciblant ses dirigeants. 🎯 En éliminant les leaders, on désorganise les structures de commandement et on réduit l'efficacité opérationnelle des groupes adverses. Cette approche démontre que frapper au cœur du leadership peut être plus décisif qu'un combat direct. ⚔️💡 #Stratégie #Décapitation #ArtDeLaGuerre #SunTzu #Leadership #Militaire

⬆️ @homohortus

>> The "decapitation strategy"… aims to weaken an enemy by targeting its leaders. 🎯 Eliminating leaders disrupts command structures and reduces the operational effectiveness of opposing groups. This approach demonstrates that striking at the heart of leadership can be more decisive than direct combat.

#Hamas, #Hezbollah, #Syria, and #Iran are neutralized, while #Ukraine still stands.

On US domestic front, not prosecuting #Trump effectively was #Biden's singular biggest mistake

@rameshgupta Les opérations militaires israéliennes ont neutralisé 80 % des capacités du Hamas, entraînant une perte de leadership à Gaza. Le groupe adopte désormais des tactiques de guérilla. Suite à un cessez-le-feu, le Hezbollah revoit sa stratégie, abandonnant ses liens avec le Hamas, ce qui fragilise l'« axe de résistance » incluant l'Iran. Cette situation complique les ambitions iraniennes, déjà menacées par la chute potentielle du régime d'Assad. #Gaza #Hamas #Hezbollah #Iran #Conflit