Jeremy (יעקב) 🇺🇦Nov 7, 2024

A good idea, as you read the deluge of people saying "This obviously means I was right about the Dems" is to make sure that what they're saying accounts for extreme amounts of ticket splitting, with Democrats downballot winning extremely disproportionately:

Nevada and Michigan look to both be sending Democratic Senators with their Trump votes. Democratic Proposals and judges and representatives won across the country (again, in Michigan, our Supreme Court is now 7-2 Democrats, making the last statewide Republican who isn't named "Donald Trump" to win in Michigan Rick Snyder in 2014 over 10 years ago).

So, does the explanation you are reading account for the fact that this seems to have been the country very specifically choosing Donald Trump, and tolerating whatever Republican happened to get carried along in the sweep?

Because virtually everybody I have seen is talking about Democrats this and Republican that, rather than grappling with Donald Trump.

#USPol

Show threadJeremy (יעקב) 🇺🇦

Continuing to use Michigan as an example, let me talk about each one, in line:

1) "Republicans Actually Lost Votes. People Just Stayed Home. 15 Million Democrats!"

Did they? Or did you just count before the populous West Coast had their numbers come in?

In Michigan in 2020, Trump got 2.65m votes vs Biden's 2.80m votes. In 2024, Trump got 2.79m votes and Harris got 2.71m. Trump gained 1.4m votes, Harris lost 0.9m votes.

So, at least in one of the states, this very obviously didn't happen.

2) "Israel! Palestine! Harris lost and Tlaib won!"

The Democrat got the seat in Detroit (and everywhere else they had them, in Michigan, people). But also, the staunchly pro-Israel Jewish Democrat who had specifically fought with Tlaib ALSO won. Even in the same counties.

And the other pro-Israel Democrats, even in swing districts won too: Stevens, Scholten, both in college towns.

2/3

#USPol

Nov 7, 2024 at 6:27pmWeb
Show threadJeremy (יעקב) 🇺🇦Nov 7, 2024

3) "It's identity politics. People HATED identity politics."

Except Trump made "Blacks for Trump" and "Muslims for Trump" more prominent than any previous Republican campaign. Black and Jewish Trump voters (who largely failed to appeal to their demographics) put their identities front and center.

And Trump, to significant coverage, ran identity-based campaigns in Michigan targeting Jews with Harris anti-Israel messages and Muslims with Harris pro-Israel messages. And it worked with one (maybe two, though that's more in-the-weeds MI Jewish politics).

Half of the campaign was people talking about how their White Identity and Christian Identity made them support Trump.

And again, downballot (as mentioned above) Muslim Democrats won focusing on Muslim issues. Jewish Democrats won focusing on Jewish issues (Democracy).

It simply isn't true that identity politics had a backlash because Democrats won with it and so did Trump.

If i see more, I'll add (maybe)

#USPol