My latest article contains my predictions for the US House, Kansas Legislature, and Abortion Amendment elections.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/11/my-2024-down-ballot-predictions.html
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#Politics #House #Prediction #Election #US #UnitedStates #USPol #USPolitics
I plan to share my predictions for the US Senate elections in my next article.
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I shared my predictions for the 2024 US Presidential Election in an earlier article.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/10/my-2024-presidential-predictions.html
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Once again, it’s worth bearing in mind that many of these key races are very close.
I would not be surprised if any, or all, of my predictions don’t come to pass.
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The race for control of US House is very close.
Nevertheless, I predict Democrats will win control of the US House.
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I used ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball and campaign finance reports to create my prediction for the US House.
Sabato considers 212 seats to be Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican.
Sabato considers 209 seats to be Safe, Likely, or Lean Democrat.
For the purposes of my US House prediction, I assume these races will be won by the candidate Sabato predicts.
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218 seats are required for a majority in the US House.
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Sabato considers 14 US House races to be tossups.
I used campaign finance data to predict the winners in these races.
Democrats have the cash advantage in 13 tossup races, and Republicans have the cash advantage in 1.
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If anyone is interested, the only tossup race where Republicans have a cash advantage is the race for California 45, where Republican incumbent Michelle Steel is running for reelection against Democratic challenger Derek Tran.
https://www.derektranforcongress.com/issues
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I added these predicted tossup winners to Sabato’s lean, likely, and safe predictions.
Therefore, I predict Democrats will win 222 seats, and Republicans will win 213.
This would give Democrats four more seats than the 218 they need for a majority.
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#House #Prediction #Politics #Election #Republicans #Democrats
This result would have a pleasant symmetry with the outcomes of recent US House elections.
In 2020, Democrats won 222 seats in the US House, and Republicans won 213.
In 2022, Republicans won 222 seats in the US House, and Democrats won 213.
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This ongoing thread can be read as an article on my blog, Meticulous Musings.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/11/my-2024-down-ballot-predictions.html
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#Politics #Election #Republicans #Democrats #House #Legislature #Abortion
This year, I focused on the elections for the Kansas Legislature, where Democrats have an opportunity to break the Republican Supermajority.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/08/key-races-to-determine-balance-of-power.html
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Republicans won a Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature in 2010, and they have maintained it ever since.
The Supermajority allows Republicans to override vetoes from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly with only Republican votes.
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#Kansas #Politics #Election #Republicans #Democrats #Legislature #US
I used campaign finance reports to create my predictions for the outcomes of the Kansas Legislative races.
Republicans currently hold 85 seats in the Kansas House, and Democrats currently hold 40.
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#Republicans #Democrats #Kansas #House #Legislature #Politics #Election
In the Kansas House, I consider races to be competitive if the margin in the district in 2022 was less than 500 votes.
There are 13 of these races.
Eight of these districts are located completely or partially in Johnson County.
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I predict Democrats will break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas House.
Specifically, I predict Democrats will win nine of the competitive races, winning two more seats than they need to break the supermajority.
Therefore, I predict Democrats will flip four seats.
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Overall, I predict Republicans will win 81 seats in the Kansas House, and Democrats will win 44.
This would place Republicans three seats shy of the 84 they would need to retain their supermajority in the chamber.
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#Kansas #House #Election #Republicans #Democrats #Politics #Legislature
The elections for the Kansas Senate are taking place in districts drawn after the most recent Kansas Senate elections in 2020.
So for the Kansas Senate elections, my predictions are based on campaign finance data alone.
Republicans currently hold 29 seats in the Kansas Senate, and Democrats hold 11.
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#Kansas #Senate #Legislature #Politics #Election #Republicans #Democrats
I predict Democrats will break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Senate.
This is a low confidence prediction, because I believe Democrats will win just enough seats to prevent the Republicans from retaining their supermajority.
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I believe Democrats will flip three seats.
Therefore, I predict Republicans will win 26 Kansas Senate seats, and Democrats will win 14.
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This ongoing thread can be read as an article on my blog, Meticulous Musings.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/11/my-2024-down-ballot-predictions.html
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Voters in 10 states will decide whether to approve constitutional amendments protecting abortion rights this year.
I predict voters will approve all 10 of these constitutional amendments.
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Abortion rights supporters have won all of the abortion amendment elections that have been held since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in June 2022.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/10/abortion-amendments-are-on-ballot-in-10.html
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Polls show widespread support for the abortion rights amendments on the ballot this year.
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My goodness, why are people still voting for any Republican at all? Even if the Democrat isn't a credible candidate, it's better to have someone sitting on their hands for the length of their term than doing what Republicans have been doing.
Kansas is, at its core, a Republican state.
Trump will win here by a large margin.
Democrats can win Kansas Governor elections, and I believe they will make gains in the Legislature.
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It does show how deeply ingrained Republican support is in Kansas that Republicans can be so out of step with public opinion on medicaid expansion and abortion rights and still win comfortable majorities in the Legislature, even if they lose their supermajorities, as I predict they will.
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Jason Beets
Winter Trabex