Parents For Future Aug 1, 2024
Atlantische Umwälzströmung AMOC: "Der Zeitpunkt des Zusammenbruchs wird auf 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) mit einem Mittelwert von 2050 geschätzt"
▶️ https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
#AMOC #Collapse #ClimateCrisis #EndFossilFuels
Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse

Show thread_noelamac_

@parents4future

oh my… 😳

„The [AMOC] collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 ± 17%“

Even if it was „only“ 5% probable it would mean we need to do everything to prevent it. With these probability percentages and near-present possible timeframes… where are we heading?

#ClimateChange #amoccollapse #collapse #overshoot #climatecris

Aug 1, 2024 at 9:16amWeb
Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Aug 1, 2024

@_noelamac_ @parents4future
Realistically, no government in Europe can reliably do anything to *prevent* it at this point, so every government of northern Europe should be taking active steps to mitigate the problems is is DEFINITELY going to cause.

Transport infrastructure, city planning, power grid, home insulation, everything.

24 years out is BARELY enough time to get this done.

It's not possible to exaggerate this, and it's not going away if we ignore it.

Show thread_noelamac_Aug 1, 2024
@petealexharris @parents4future If we think governments aren’t capable of doing anything to prevent it, or at least try, which means actually accelerating GHG emission reductions; how can we then expect them to perform the even more difficult and practically impossible task of adapting to the effects of AMOC collapse, i.e. irreversible and gradual slowdown of the AMOC current?
Show threadThe Penguin of EvilAug 1, 2024

@_noelamac_ @petealexharris @parents4future They won't. The only collective action they could achieve in that timescale to hit any target would be to start WW3, which they do seem to be working on.
That and maybe panic level upper atmosphere seeding games which might be even worse.

Either way several billion people are going to die, and this looks like the only way society will manage to significantly reduces the carbon footprint 8(

Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Aug 1, 2024

@_noelamac_ @parents4future

Don't get me wrong, of course they should act to drastically reduce carbon emissions, because there's more than the AMOC to worry about.

I'm saying even supposing they do, and the rest of the world helps too, the chance to turn it around before disruption of the AMOC was probably years ago.

We aren't going to see a lot of cliff-edge tipping points coming at us, but this one, there's no excuse not to plan for it.

Show threadCuriousAug 1, 2024
@_noelamac_ @parents4future aww crap, I studied this in the 90s and have been off working on preventing biodiversity decline. Do you have a reference on this I need to read up, I'm 30 years behind
Show thread_noelamac_Aug 1, 2024

@curiously @parents4future

This presentation from Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf.

„Prof. Rahmstorf discusses the danger of a major ocean circulation change with massive climate impacts around the world. „

#amoc #climatechange

https://youtu.be/HX7wAsdSE60?si=4QxliEnpZp1JGH6H

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Show thread_noelamac_Aug 1, 2024

@curiously @parents4future Or the article mentioned in the same video:

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

FEATURE ARTICLE • Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point? | Oceanography

Show threadCuriousAug 1, 2024
@_noelamac_ @parents4future thanks for the refrence, I know the impacts from a postgrad in the 90s but that was theory, the modelling is so much more advanced now. Given the timeline biodiversity loss gets overrun by the climate drivers. Hmm we've got some serious work to do and fast, very very fast. It's two sides of the same problem, have been trying to slow the biodiversity loss to slow climate change and has become slowing climate change to prevent extensive biodiversity loss. The acceleration in 30 years is beyond sobering
Show threadPoul-Henning KampAug 1, 2024

@_noelamac_ @parents4future

I bet it is going to happen on january 19th 2038 at 03:14:08 UTC.

Show threadDemallienAug 1, 2024
@_noelamac_ @parents4future just adding a link to describe what AMOC actually is for those like me that dont know. But summarising Wikipedia it is an ocean current that if it drops will cause Europe to get cooler. Complex models say it probably won’t stop. Simpler models, presumably like the one used here think it should stop around 2057.
Show thread_noelamac_Aug 1, 2024
@demallien @parents4future IMO the article linked in the starting post sufficiently explains what AMOC is.