Países africanos lusófonos têm adotado posição “mista” face à invasão russa da Ucrânia e “Angola beneficiou claramente da guerra”

Nenhum dos países africanos lusófonos apoiou a invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia, mas só Cabo Verde e São Tomé e Príncipe a condenaram de forma consistente. A estratégia dual dos restantes, que mantêm amizade com Moscovo e Kiev, pode esconder uma aproximação maior e crescente ao Kremlin. “Vamos assistir, no futuro, a uma maior presença da Rússia em África e também nos países da CPLP”, prevê ao Expresso o analista Luís Bernardino

Expresso

As the title states, #Angola stands to benefit the most, as #EU countries are looking for alternate energy suppliers. However, the most immediate consequence has been the challenge to food security presented by the blockade of the #BlackSea. This has been a major tool for Ukrainian policy through the "Grain from #Ukraine" initiative. #Mozambique is one of the main recipients.

#Russia #CPLP #PALOP

#Ukraine and #Russia are both vying for influence - including in the information space - and are getting different results depending on histories, memories, strategic imperatives in different #PALOP countries.

#CPLP

#Angola and #CapeVerde are openly getting closer to the West as a result of inner policy concerns, but #Russia has friendly ties with most countries of the region, ties those countries do not rush to strain. Those ties have been helped by recent Russian efforts at strengthening its influence on the continent and getting rid of Western competitors.

#Ukraine #CPLP #PALOP

At the same time, upholding of the #UN charter is of paramount concern for #Africa. All of those countries have condemned the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity - albeit vocalizing this condemnation more or less openly. Only #CapeVerde and #SãoToméandPríncipe have consistently supported #Ukraine at the UN General Assembly.

#CPLP #PALOP

None however have voted in favour of the removal of #Russia from the #UN Human Rights Council. (#CapeVerde has also been the first African country to confirm its participation to #Ukraine's peace summit, to be held shortly)

#CPLP #PALOP

While Russian influence in #Angola is indeed waning - although not as a direct consequence of the war - and Ukrainian efforts have been positively received in several countries, the war has rather been an incentive for several #PALOP countries to try their hand at multivectorial diplomacy.

#Russia #Ukraine #CPLP

Such is the case of #EquatorialGuinea (that signed an agreement with #Belarus last December) or #SãoTomé (which recently signed a defence agreement with #Russia). Those agreements should not be taken as a sign that these nations are allying and aligning with Russia.

#Ukraine #PALOP #CPLP

Travels on the continent, meetings with African heads of state, opening of new embassies will not be enough to sway #PALOP/African countries one way or another. Of primary importance is to address African concerns and adapt to African agency. A fact that #Portugal has failed to learn so far, if we are to believe its recent reaction to the #Russia-#SãoTomé deal.

#Ukraine #CPLP