Erik Jonker
The possibilities for the Moscow attack are in my view the following,
#moscow #russia #geopolitics @geopolitics
please vote what you think is most likely:
Terrorist attack, Putin was caught by surprise
25.7%
Terrorist attack, Putin was aware, let it happen
25.2%
Ukraine attack
2.4%
False flag attack by Putin
46.6%
Poll ended at .
Mar 22, 2024 at 7:20pmMastodon for Android
Show threadPaul.Mar 22, 2024
@ErikJonker Oef. Moeilijk. Kan niet kiezen tussen 2 en 4.
Show threadLil Meow MeowMar 22, 2024

@ErikJonker

Didn't vote for it but wouldn't be surprised if one day in the future we'll learn that it was a false flag.

Show threadJune CasagrandeMar 22, 2024

@ErikJonker @geopolitics

We can't be sure until we see how he uses it and how it benefits him. If it's a justification for doing something he'd otherwise have trouble justifying, it's more likely it was a false flag. Till then, I'd say they're all about equally possible.

Show thread@frueheneuzeitMar 22, 2024
@ErikJonker @geopolitics I find it irresponsible and quite disgusting to use this horrible event for baseless speculation. And as far as turning this into a poll is concerned: words fail me…
Show threadJoe StickerMar 22, 2024
@stefan_hessbrueggen @ErikJonker @geopolitics Well I will tell you the truth behind this event will never come out as long as Putin is in power
Show threadKim Possible Mar 22, 2024
@geopolitics @ErikJonker not even one day after Speaker says he will hold floor vote about Ukraine aid. Verdict on timing: suspicious.
Show threadTyler DurdenMar 22, 2024
@ErikJonker @geopolitics
False flag. Peskov's comment about them being "at war" was a false start. He knew this will happen but he's sloppy like all of them. They'll use this false flag to send more russians for certain death.
Show threadjoene 🏴Mar 22, 2024

@ErikJonker @geopolitics

Difficult and too early.

I don't think it's the Ukrainian state, because raw terrorism isn't what they do. That doesn't mean it can't be a a far-right Ukrainian militia (would be stupid, but it's not ruled out). A false flag is possible, because Putin did that before in 1999 and even much worse. A terrorist attack by an islamist group is unlikely, because there is no recent conflict between Russia and a islamist entity. Another possibility would be separatists, maybe mixed with islamists (think Dagestani, Chechens are unlikely because of Kadyrov-Putin ties, or one of the other many oppressed minorities). It is also possible that Putin wasn't aware, because the eyes of his intelligence agencies are to much focused on Ukraine right now.

Again, it just too early.

Show threadErik JonkerMar 22, 2024
@joenepraat @geopolitics Agreed, the poll was more a structured list of possibilities, usually it takes some time, maybe even years , to establish who really was behind this
Show threadKristoffer LawsonMar 22, 2024
@joenepraat could also be some opposition radicals, as timing is just after the so-called election
Show threadSvanteMar 23, 2024

@joenepraat @ErikJonker @geopolitics

No, you can categorically rule out Ukraine even tolerating it, because it goes against everything they want

- giving Russia an excuse for mobilization
- looking bad in the view of the world
- looking bad in the view of russian population

Show threadAnneTheWriterMar 22, 2024

@ErikJonker @geopolitics

#ISIS has claimed responsibility for the #MoscowAttack on a theatre today. Early reports say dozens have died, more are injured.

Three (some reports say four) men in camouflage stormed the building with guns, shooting at everyone. At some point, a large fire broke out in the top of the building. Online footage showed the several-story building with large flames on the top floor & ceiling, and a helicopter dropping water onto the flames.

#Russia #Putin #RussianNews #Moscow #Crocus_City_Hall #CrocusCityHall

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/europe/crocus-moscow-shooting/index.html

Show threadPeter BrownMar 22, 2024
@ErikJonker @geopolitics well they don’t look like terrorists. They look like well trained highly disciplined operatives
Show threadMartijn VosMar 22, 2024
From what I understand, US intelligence warned Russia about a possible terrorist attack. That suggests strongly that it's the second option.
Show threadMikeMar 23, 2024

@ErikJonker @geopolitics

IS claimed it

Show threadWalter TrossMar 24, 2024
@ErikJonker @geopolitics My guess: #Putin asked the SVR for a terrorist attack that would enable him to escalate the war against #Ukraine with the support of the public opinion. The SVR made sure such an attack could happen, but it didn't turn out to be of exactly the kind Putin had asked for. In his 5-minute address Putin carefully chose the wording so as to redirect the anger towards Ukraine as much as he could.