Mastodawn

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 8, 2023

#ClimateDiary There is no question that #COP28 will be the most important yet. The #GlobalStocktake will be the “biggest accountability moment in history”, and on its basis leaders will need to make crucial key decisions about fiscal and policy commitments. With less than two months to go, we need to all be as well informed as possible and put pressure on leaders as much as we can. I thought I would start a 🧵that I will keep going in the run up 1/n

https://www.wri.org/un-climate-change-conference-resource-hub/key-issues-watch-cop28

Key Issues to Watch at COP28

COP28 is the biggest accountability moment for climate action in history.

World Resources Institute

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 8, 2023

2/n but a 🧵that is meant as an open, ongoing conversation, where we can all contribute thoughts and perhaps, even, come up with a collective #ClimateDiary action of some kind!

As a start: i would be grateful if people could keep cynical responses - COPs are all useless, they never work, they are captured by #FossilFuel industry (this one is in #Dubai ffs!) etc etc - to a minimum [* EDIT: see post 6!] I am aware of all this and have these thoughts too. But #COP28 is nevertheless important,

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 8, 2023

3/n and we need to at least try to do whatever we can to ensure the best possible outcome - even if this is minimal and will only highlight our powerlessness etc. as a minimum, we have to understand what’s going on.

I am saying this as after #COP26 and in the run up to #COP27 i kept on tweeting about the #RatchetMechanism but seemed to be virtually the only one. It may well be that I was misguided but i couldn’t help wondering whether

https://www.energymonitor.ai/opinion/opinion-when-the-dust-has-settled-at-cop26-it-is-the-ratchet-mechanism-that-will-keep-1-5c-alive/

Pauline von Hellermann

4/n it’s also the case that most of us are just not well-informed enough about processes and details; we have placards that say “system change now”, but would it not sometimes be better to at least understand what specific commitments our governments need to make at what points and ask for those? I am inspired in all this by this photo by #GuyShrubsole during #COP26 But fully acknowledge my take may be naive, uninformed and misguided itself.

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 8, 2023

5/n Anyway, am starting today with this profile of the president of #COP28, Sultan #AlJaber, by Fiona Harvey, brilliant and insightful as ever. And yes, he is what he is. CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc). It’s deeply dismaying, but better to know and understand what we have

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

‘I wasn’t the obvious choice’: meet the oil man tasked with saving the planet

When Cop28 starts next month, Sultan Al Jaber will be front and centre. He is the United Arab Emirates’ choice to head up the climate talks – and he also happens to be head of the national oil company. What’s the problem with that, he asks

The Guardian

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 9, 2023

6/n #ClimateDiary Today, in response to all the thought-provoking replies to this 🧵yesterday, an EDIT to post 2, above: it was not right to dismiss misgivings about #COP28 as cynical; and also to try and steer people! Just wanted to clarify that am not saying that focusing on #COP28 is the only thing that we should all be doing now, on the contrary, we need #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce. Just that for now i feel i want to pay attention & thought i could share things here.

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 9, 2023

7/n Today sharing this #DeepStateRadio podcast, with host David #Rothkopf and @MichaelEMann, about #OurFragileMoment. It’s about much more than #COP28 but provides good context - in particular the role of #BadActors like #Murdoch and the #Koch brothers

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000630044822

‎Deep State Radio: Dr. Michael Mann: Our Fragile Moment on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Deep State Radio, Ep Dr. Michael Mann: Our Fragile Moment - 3 Oct 2023

Apple Podcasts

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 9, 2023

8/n Rothkopf mentions the “On the Road to #COP28” podcast series #DeepStateRadio are doing. I haven’t listened to any of them yet but look forward to doing so. Here the latest, Episode 3, on #GreenGrowth, with Peter #Kalmus and others

https://thedsrnetwork.com/the-road-to-cop-28-episode-3-green-growth-part-1/

The Road to COP 28 Episode 3 – Green Growth Part 1 - Deep State Radio Network

The third episode in Road to COP 28 series is here. This week’s episode focuses on Green Growth and is chaired by Frederick “Fritz” Mayer, Dean of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. Our panel of experts includes author and science journalist Laurie Garrett, NASA Climate Scientist Peter Kalmus, Professor at the University College London Mark

Deep State Radio Network - Experts and Newsmakers Helping You Make Sense of the World

Pauline von Hellermann Oct 15, 2023

9/n #ClimateDiary Have been a bit quiet here with this #COP28 series this week, due to events elsewhere (#Israel #Gaza) and international responses. But the two are linked: by an underlying, deeply worrying crisis in #Multilateralism. Just when we need it most, the international order is weaker than ever. Here an excellent piece on this ny Nathalie Tocci.

https://www.politico.eu/article/multilateralism-broken-diplomacy-united-nations-eu-global-governance/

Multilateralism is broken

The EU is doing little to prevent the tragic death of global governance.

POLITICO

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 9, 2023

10/n #ClimateDiary I've been feeling so despondent about the state of the world and the prospects for #COP28 that I found myself unable to continue this series, or in fact write much at all here. @kathhayhoe: a few months back we had an exchange about #Hope, when I argued that I wasn't driven by hope as much as #DesperateDetermination. But I now recognise just how debilitating true hopelessness is, and that it is indeed a problem. I don't think I've ever had such a low. BUT:

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 9, 2023

11/n I just watched the WRI webinar "Responding to the Climate Crisis in Times of Uncertainty: A Clarion for Climate Leadership", and I am so very glad I did. Informative and inspiring, it brought home to me again just how crucial #COP28 (and #COP29 and #COP30 - all three) really are.

Now is not the time to give up on #Multilateralism. As Tina Stege, the brilliant #ClimateEnvoy for the #MarhsallIslands said: "We don't have a choice".

https://www.wri.org/events/2023/11/responding-climate-crisis-times-uncertainty-clarion-call-climate-leadership

Responding to the Climate Crisis in Times of Uncertainty: A Clarion Call for Climate Leadership

Join the ACT2025 consortium for a high-level webinar, where policymakers and advocates will set clear expectations for a positive outcome at COP28 that meets the needs of climate-vulnerable countries.

World Resources Institute

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 9, 2023

12/n I will share the webinar recording here as soon as it's available, and am fully resolved to continue this series. I am not an expert or insider, so may get things wrong, but I believe it's really important to stay engaged, to understand what's at stake, and yes, also just to do your bit, however small, to keep faith in #COP28 and #Multilateralism alive. Just because the more of us take it seriously, the better chances of success we have

Edit: Here the recording

https://www.wri.org/events/2023/11/responding-climate-crisis-times-uncertainty-clarion-call-climate-leadership

Responding to the Climate Crisis in Times of Uncertainty: A Clarion Call for Climate Leadership

Join the ACT2025 consortium for a high-level webinar, where policymakers and advocates will set clear expectations for a positive outcome at COP28 that meets the needs of climate-vulnerable countries.

World Resources Institute

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 12, 2023

13/n #ClimateDiary decided to do a little #COP28 #Glossary here: brief explainers of key terms, familiar to many of you no doubt but perhaps useful to have in one place.

Starting with #GlobalStocktake. The #GST was part of the #ParisAgreement: that every 5 years stock would be taken of where global policies and actions are at in terms of reducing carbon/green house gas emissions in order to stay under 1.5°C warming. This will be the first GST, and it’s important

https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake/about-the-global-stocktake/why-the-global-stocktake-is-important-for-climate-action-this-decade

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 12, 2023

14/n However, as has been evident for some time there is a significant #EmissionsGap - the gap between where emissions need to be at in order to keep warming below 1.5°C or even between 1.5°C-2°C, abs where they really are. This year’s #UNEP #EmissionsGapReport will form the basis for the GST.

https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023

Emissions Gap Report 2023

As greenhouse gas emissions hit new highs, temperature records tumble and climate impacts intensify, the Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again) finds that the world is heading for a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goals unless countries deliver more than they have promised. The report is the 14th edition in a series that brings together many of the world’s top climate scientists to look at future trends in greenhouse gas emissions and provide potential solutions to the challenge of global warming.

UNEP - UN Environment Programme

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 13, 2023

15/n an important distinction needs to be made here between the commitments so far made by countries (##NationallyDeterminedContributions or #NDCs - more on these below) which are currently estimated to lead to 1.7-2.1°C warming by 2100 (which wouldn’t be too bad) and actual trajectories, fossil fuel licenses given etc. So there are several gaps: between where we need to be, pledges (NDCs), and actual practices

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/global-stocktake-unlocking-trillions-climate-action

Global Stocktake: Unlocking trillions for climate action | Lowy Institute

The Paris Agreement’s assessment of climate policies finds some good news, but massive room for improvement.

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

#ClimateDiary 16/n apologies for pause in this #COP28 🧵. Now only 6 days to go until it starts (30th Nov) - stepping up again! To continue with #Glossary a bit more: #NationallyDeterminedContributions (NDCs) are what each country pledges to do - voluntarily. There is no binding obligation; this is how the #ParisAgreement finally happened. You csn read more here:

https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

17/n Each country updates its #NDCs annually; here, for example, is the 2022 UK one. There is also a website where all NDCs are listed; I will add this when I find it! #COP28

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-09/UK%20NDC%20ICTU%202022.pdf

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

18/n One of the (few) successes of #COP26 in #Glasgow was the establishment of an #AnnualRatchet : NDCs have to be “ratched up” every year, and they can’t go back. In theory, the #RatchetMechanism IS a good system

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/15/ratchets-phase-downs-and-a-fragile-agreement-how-cop26-played-out

Ratchets, phase-downs and a fragile agreement: how Cop26 played out

Last-minute hitch on coal almost reduced Alok Sharma to tears as Glasgow climate pact made imperfect progress

The Guardian

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

19/n After #COP26 i really thought that surely the #Ratchet and NDCs were where we should focus - climate activists in each country putting pressure on their governments to improve their NDCs substantially every year. But it turned out that i was alone in this. Like, even a year or so on, when i searched ratchet or NDCs in Twitter, i quickly came to my own tweets! Others explained this lack of interest in disillusion. Maybe but I am still a bit curious why noone ever talks about this.

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

20/n Anyway sceptics were probably right: this year’s #GlobalStocktake synthesis report has shown that, so far, the ratchet hasn’t worked well enough; all governments, all NDCs are falling abysmally short of what’s needed.

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09E.pdf

Here also a good #CarbonBrief Q&A on the Global Stock Take

https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

21/n Another key concern at #COP28 is #LossAndDamage. This was the one area where there was real progress at #COP27 last year in Egypt: for the first time, countries agreed to set up a fund for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters. Loss and Damage is simultaneously essential and deeply inadequate as a #ClimateJustice measure: no amount of money is going to compensate for the loss of entire Islands or cities! But it must be provided

https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

22/n A couple of weeks ago, at a pre-COP28 meeting in #AbuDhabi, there was further real progress, when rich and poor country governments managed to agree on a blue-print of the #LossAndDamage fund. This will be announced officially in #Dubai at #COP28 next week, but it’s really good this is already in place - now we “just” need actual money to start materialising.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/05/countries-agree-key-measures-to-fund-most-vulnerable-to-climate-breakdown

‘Loss and damage’ deal struck to help countries worst hit by climate crisis

Governments draw up blueprint for fund to be administered at first by World Bank after tense Abu Dhabi talks

The Guardian

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

23/n Another big theme at #COP28 is wider #ClimateFinance, beyond Loss and Damage. This includes generating more private #investment; reforming Multilateral Development Banks (#MDBs) to better address #ClimateChange; and strengthening the #NetworkForGreeningTheFinancialSystem (#NGFS)

Not my field at ALL, but I found this article provides a useful short introduction

https://sustainability.freshfields.com/post/102is1l/road-to-cop28-climate-finance-unlocking-private-capital-to-beat-climate-change

Road to COP28: Climate finance - unlocking private capital to beat climate change

At COP28, finance is (once again) at the heart of the policy agenda. COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber has stated that “transforming climate finance” ...

Passle

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 24, 2023

24/n But the biggest - most important but also most difficult - task at #COP28 will be to make real progress on the phasing out of #FossilFuels. This is the crux of the matter- and so many forces stacked up against this, what with it taking place in #petrolstate and all!

For the next few days, this is what I will focus on in this 🧵 - what’s at stake, but also how some parties are deliberately delaying action.

For today, will end with this useful #COP28 scorecard:

https://www.politico.eu/article/cop28-agenda-global-warming-climate-change-paris-agreement-pledges-united-states-uae-island-nations-china-g77-european-union-sauidi-arabia-russia-india/

Who wants what out of COP28

Our scorecard of what the most powerful factions of countries will be fighting over at the climate summit — and the obstacles they face.

POLITICO

Ingmar Lippert Nov 24, 2023

@pvonhellermannn don’t trust the #privateSector with optimising for the environment. They can maximally be expected to optimise for selling #greenness. We have to expect, the private sector will ignore all environmental implications they can get away with, i.e. externalise as much as possible within any #internalisation project. #EnvironmentalEconomics

My @sts #STS take on #carbon in the #finance #industry is @bigdatasoc at https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951716673390

Jonathan Schofield Nov 13, 2023

@pvonhellermannn thanks for this thread, Pauline. Glad to have discovered it.

Re toot #9 in particular, and David Cameron’s appointment today, have you seen https://www.planetcritical.com/p/everybody-wants-gazas-gas by @PlanetCritical?

Everybody Wants Gaza's Gas

The $500 billion windfall shoring up EU supplies

Planet: Critical

Pauline von Hellermann Nov 13, 2023

@urlyman @PlanetCritical ah - thank you for sharing this here. I had vaguely seen it in passing but not actually read yet. Thank you!

Led By Gilded Fools Nov 13, 2023

@urlyman @pvonhellermannn @PlanetCritical

The OK Doomer blog published this about oil and gas in Gaza.
https://www.okdoomer.io/theres-no-lesser-evil-or-even-a-slower-collapse/

There's No Lesser Evil, or Even a Slower Collapse

There's an ulterior motive in Gaza, and it's disturbing.

OK Doomer

mk30 Nov 9, 2023

@pvonhellermannn if i ever feel hopeless, i go out into nature and look at all the living things giving it their all to keep living and growing every single day. the plants and the fungi and the critters never give up, and we shouldn't give up on them either. i consider myself working with the plants and critters on the side of life, against a global biodeath machine. that's what keeps me going: the beauty of life itself. 🌱 💪

Tom Ritchford Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn I'm sorry, but I will not be reading this article, where someone who is fabulously wealth through destroying the planet talks about plans to stop killing the planet - in 25 years.

What advantage is there reading this twaddle except to sap us of our will and fill us full of despair?

Politely asking our lords and masters, "Please, don't kill the biosphere, we live here!" has failed for generations.

Show me this man's obituary, then I'll celebrate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_warfare

Asymmetric warfare - Wikipedia

Tom Ritchford Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn

> “In 50 years, when we might have the last barrel of oil, the question is: when it is shipped abroad, will we be sad?” Bin Zayed asked. “If we are investing today in the right sectors, I can tell you we will celebrate at that moment.”

We will not convince these psychopaths not to destroy our planet with compassion, reason and lawful, non-violent protest.

Alberto Cottica Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn this is also my main concern. "System change" is not an action or a set of policies, it is an outcome of multiple, necessarily specific policies. Which ones to roll out, and how to avoid unwanted side effects (like regressive effects of transitions away from fossil fuels), are all-important questions. And we have very few specific answers.

Jennifer Moore 😷Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn

Haha that is a great little placard!

And yes, I think you're on the right track here, in that specific demands from an informed public are harder for politicians to wiggle out of. "Do this specific doable thing, or justify why you aren't" is a much more pointed demand than "Make things better in an unspecified way".

Harry Jordan Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn I love this mini- sign. Very good specificity…

There’s been a shift in the UK (I don’t know other contexts) Just Stop Oil, Insulate Britain, Stop Rosebank to have the headline demand in the name so that it’s super obvious.

.. but.. my general feeling around protests is that they are about building sufficient pressure that can then give license to the people on the inside to be bold.

(This is just my view, from an activist perspective)

Harry Jordan Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn having a very detailed demand can add a burden on new activists which makes it hard to talk about on the street, and can lead to policy criticism media ‘debate’ that can play into peoples loss aversion, rather than “we need to move faster” which is harder to argue with.

Maybe this is revealing an old mindset (of mine), where the subject matter experts are separate from the activists.. which is not the case (Scientists for XR, etc)

Harry Jordan Oct 8, 2023

@pvonhellermannn it’s also easier to align protest for a common goal, rather than for a specific solution. A slightly nebulous demand, allows people to fill in the blank with their own ideal so you can have radical anti-capitalists and green new deal folks coexist at the same protest. A bit of hand waving helps avoid in-fighting.

And demanding things that are completely off the table internally is always a silly look

CassandraVert Dec 5, 2023

@pvonhellermannn
We'd be in better shape if we all understood what was happening and agreed on what needed to be done. A handful of oligarchs would not be able to overcome that.