1/n

#WarInUkraine D+443 (May 12) PdS1 - #Donbass Theater

Could the carrots 🇷🇺 be cooked in #Bakhmut?
If so, this would be a turning point of #WarInUkraine!

In any case, on the rest of the front, the offensive fires 🇷🇺 are put out

2/n

Machine to go back in time,
If you missed the CDXLII diary of #WarInUkraine, here it is👇
https://mastodon.world/@applepie110101/110350478954661142
https://twitter.com/applepie110101/status/1656665130615341064

3/n

1/northern segment, #Kupyansk-#Svatove-#Kreminna

There is no longer any sign of offensive activity 🇷🇺 on the entire segment, which has entered an anxious wait

In the directions #Kupyansk, #Svatove, #Kreminna, N.T.R.

4/n

N.T.R. = no offensive, but artillery exchanges👇, reco, special operations
https://t.me/z_arhiv/21211

5/n

On this segment, @Pouletvolant3 👇 maps allow us to observe 3 lines of defense 🇷🇺 :
-on the north-south road axis (P-07 and P-66),
-the wetland of the Krasna river
-a line of anti-tank fortifications just east of the road axis

6/n

2/central segment, #Bakhmut-#Siversk

(i) In the ramparts,

271st day of siege,

🇺🇦 regained ground south of Tchaikovsky Street 👇for Wagner had to play fireman and supplement the troops 🇷🇺 flanking his flanks, especially to the southwest

7/n

The garrison 🇺🇦 crossed Tchaikovsky Street in the other direction, regaining control of the medical college 👇

8/n

For the first time, Russian occupation of #Bakhmut DIMINISHED to 88% 👇 and the glorious #AFU took back 1 sq km in the ramparts👇

Are the carrots cooked for Wagner in #Bakhmut

9/n

We may be at an inflection point in the conflict:

-#Prigozhine is nervous👇, which may mean he has not met his goals on time
In this post, he ironically invites #Shoïgu to come and see the difficulties on site

10/n

-#Prigozhin claims 80K shells/day! This is consistent with his scheme of assault sections, which only works if the city is razed beforehand; however, grandpa #Putin has signed the end of the recreation
In fact, granting Wagner's request would mean producing 29M shells/year

11/n

However, 🇷🇺 only produces 3 or 4 M/year!

-the breakdown of the command 🇷🇺, of which he is the actor, explodes in his face with a bad coordination on weakened flanks

SW entrance #Bakhmut, 🇷🇺 were at 625 m (its capture means that of the city)

12/n

(ii) Outside the ramparts,

Last night, it was scary on the web 🇷🇺 !

One could see maps like this one👇, showing multiple attacks on the flanks
Or, better, maps like this one announcing an offensive with encirclement of #Bakhmut 👇

13/n

And fear is contagious judging by the lines at the border 🇷🇺🇺🇦👇

What happened?
I've already pointed out the friability and fragility of the protrusions 🇷🇺 on the flanks of #Bakhmut, especially the one to the north whose perimeter is twice its base