1/ Operational situation update regarding #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on May the 08, 2023 :
last major update i wrote "#Russian r globally not able to conduct anymore their war". i think it's safe to say now, that they won't be able to regain this capacity in this war.
The frontline remains the same for the last couple of months now. Only infinite small progress in #Bakhmut are to be observed.
Next phase of this war (the 5th round) might start soon now. big changes are expected.
#UkraineMap
2/ I'm not going to do an extensive review of the frontline as nothing has changed for the last couple of months and as in certain areas, there is still this "tango" moves but nothing significant is happening.
in areas like #Kreminna for example, the Russians have managed to keep some key positions to hold the perimeter of the city and in certain places to "configure" to the Oblast limits, but they are picking appart quite often there and even if there command ask them to lead offensives in
3/ the direction of #Nevske #Torske #Zarichne etc. it is more to answer to a chain of command that has no effing clue that this is simply killing their own man, and losing more materials.
so they hold the lines, in the middle of nowhere, just trying to pretend they are the master of some administrative limits.
what is even more pathetic though is that they were actually not even able to really size the real oblast limits.
imagine that #Makiivka never taken in 6 months!
complete failure
4/ Now if we look at the general situation in the interface of #Luhansk and #Donetsk and we observed what are the hot points, and the main trends, it's even worse as not only the russians failed to accomplished some "minimal requirements" like reaching #Seversk or #Sloviansk
but they are doing so ridiculousely tiny progress day after day in #Bakhmut that they don't realize it's a mega tomb.
I mean the volume & strength Ru have lost there for "this" was last seen maybe not in the last 50 years
6/ going more into details now in #Bakhmut
it's quite difficult with all the back & forth to really be sure of what is the actual situation.
we do have registered though through geoloc vids some Ru advances in the north part of the last quarter in direction of #khromove (purple limits)
(all red arrows are confirmed geolocs, but in between and due to delay we are not sure of actual positions)
but apparently from all sources i read, Ru are advancing again...
anyway that"s it UKR have managed
7/ to keep the city past a certain date and read my previous threads in the week, it is more than confirmed that this battle and the sacrifice of men in this place has not only allowed to prepare a SUPER Strong defense on the way to #Kramatorsk and the entire arc of defense, but globally helped the entire UKR army to prepare past winter, for it's big counter offensive.
and that was not a small task for such a small country facing such a giant opponent.
(David vs Goliath vibes here)
8/ now quick words regarding the situation in the area between #Niuyork and #Avdiivka
Around the temporarily-occupied city of Donetsk, Russian troops led unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Avdiivka, Pervomayske and Maryinka in general
they are not able to capitalize on past gains on the north East of Avdiivka & despite tremendous effort there, there are now in the same situation as they are around #bakhmut for example.
each day they are weaker and weaker and only manage to
9/ sustain their attacks because they are still in possession of enough "man power" (and it is true that they could go on like that for still some times as these men are just sending wih minimals materials)
on the south part of #Avdiivka it's another story, Ru have lost tremendous amount of heeavy materials and men in direction of #Opytne #Severne #Pervomaiske
same thing,i thought they would at least, reached (during winter) the north defensive arc made by the lacs so up to #Umanske .. no
10/ so that's about it for now, i'll be back later on to complete with some more infos and some numbers.
there is some really really tiny moves in #Mariinka or near #Vuhledar but frankly, as this does not represent any kind of danger and there is no tactical changes in the area, there is no need to debrief that right now...
Ru are just sending more men and materials to die.
not understanding that they are wasting there ressources in small batches of men/materials day after day...
11/ allez on y va pr les chiffres (meme si j'ai une ENORME flemme les amis.. mais je me motive sinon je vais jamais le faire)
so let's start with the recap of the week (Sunday recap) et today's last officials alleged numbers
13/ now material & men rate of attrition
NB. the drones are all mixed in UKR accounts and they have mixed with loitering mun. Also these numbers were presented before they started to build "en masse" their existing tactical/op drones. so the numbers r not as it appears..
same for the "men" this countdown in weeks is about their own numbers.
if we take my numbers, u could add 20%
but globally let say that they are heading real big problems (break down) in about 4 to 10 months / diff materials
14/ and the recap for assessed real losses on the battlefield since day one.
en résumé : la Russie est dans la m.. (voilà pour de l'analyse de fond :)
Russia in this format will be oblige to perform a 200k to 250k sup mobilization if they want to "try" to achieve their primary goal (reaching East oblast limits) but as they will lack the needed materials, they won't be able to achieve it.
but the same amount of men on top of 250k+ right now there, defending, could really block UKR for months
15/ so as said several times, (even putting it on top of my spreadsheet) i really believe the "material-istic" war will be over by 2024 max... but in term of "nuisance" Ru could be "there" couple more years.. (as long as they only play "defense" of a small & very fortified areas along their own border (like on a small strip in "pre-occupied" (from 2014) areas.
but one more time, with ammo logistics gaining volume from western countries, by end 23 early 2024, all their big "guns" will be gone..
19/ now just a quick note about the #economy of #Ukraine and what they are forced to endure
just read the total amount of expanse they are forced to put in "defense spending"... and remember this is one of the Russian goal.
to be able to wait for future new gouvernements to stop helping UkR, driving them to total failure of their economy and therefore of their ability to produce armement.
so we just need to accelerate our help. not stalling. same goes for air defense (F-16)!
20/ ok and let's wrap this up with the usual... "Killed in Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1654465275629281281
(count at least 15%-20% more of assessed Ru losses here)
“⚡️ Mobilised Lieutenant Colonel Тесля Антон Васильевич (Teslya Anton Vasilievich), commander of the battalion of mobilised reservists No. 1823, Serpukhov, was killed probably near Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine in November ’22. H/t @sitizen_toxi https://t.co/EyEKVBIDmi”
21/ just some reminder from the past week
https://elk.zone/mastodon.world/@HeliosRunner/110314940725598970
https://elk.zone/mastodon.world/@HeliosRunner/110311967240824382
Attached: 4 images Hello Chaleur! "il va y avoir du sport mais moi je reste tranquille" (je reviendrai vous expliquer ;)) Massacre en cours sur l'#artillerie #Russe (qq semaines que cela s'intensifie et qu'il y a de plus en plus de résultats!) Je ne sais pas si vs rendez compte mais on est sur le meme volume pr préparer la contre offensive que sur #Kherson c'est intenable pour les Russes si on reste sur cette tendance... 100 jours (3 mois) ce serait min (moy) 1500 systèmes détruit.. (voir etat final) A plus!
Attached: 1 image 1/ Partial Operational situation update regarding #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on May 1st, 2023 : #Russian are stuck everywhere and even losing some grounds around #Avdiivka (but the situation is fluid there) But they r still counting on to their final push to seize what remains of #Bakhmut. (not much right now) Nothing is certain about the frontline in Bakhmut but recents vids confirms the ru advance. UKR will be there at least couple days more for sure... (yeah it's amazing..) #UkraineMap
@HeliosRunner Merci pour ce point Jerome.
Pour foutre les orcs dehors, ou tout du moins les placer dans une situation ou la retraite* est la seule solution il faudra que la contre offensive UA soit particulierement violente. Ils vont avoir chaud aux fesses les orcs, tres chaud.
*Je ne pense pas que l'autre taré du Kremlin l'envisage d'ailleurs.
back up for J. like JJ
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