@vortex_egg

Yes, we need to become comfortable with uncertainty in our increasingly complex environment — in fact that should already have be the case, especially for issues that are complex enough to be 'interesting.'

And even more than being comfortable with uncertainty, we need to get much better at thinking of things in terms of likelihood and probability — even getting clear on the difference between these two terms.

So becoming comfortable with Bayesian thinking will equip us to more effectively deal with both uncertainty, and reasoning, as we try to make sense of the flood of social media, consumer-marketing, politics, and multiple flavors of bullshit.

And by the way, it also helps with the simpler, more straightforward stuff like new science, technology, and data…

#uncertainty #probability #likelihood # Bayesian #reason #reasoning #ToolsForThinking #complexity #sensemaking