LorraineDec 12, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-omicron-reproduction-number/fact-check-no-evidence-omicron-ba-5-is-more-infectious-than-measles-or-is-the-most-infectious-virus-known-idUSL1N2YW1T0
This July ‘22 article refutes that but when you’ve got Zeynep Tufekci arguing against something, chances are pretty high whatever she’s arguing against is 100% true

& Reuters was bought by somebody shady af I’ve forgotten the deets
AND this immunity they speak of from prior infections or vaccinations is a #fairytale b/c THERE IS NO DURABLE IMMUNITY

Also July I had some extremely precarious close-calls when all my prior protocols were failing & I knew BA.5 R0 was MUCH⬆️

Fact Check-No evidence Omicron BA.5 is more infectious than measles or is 'the most infectious virus known'

Scientists say there is no evidence that the BA.5 version of the Omicron coronavirus variant is more transmissible than measles, or that it has a basic reproduction number, or "R-naught" (R0), of 18.6, which would be greater than that of measles. While BA.5 appears to be...

Reuters
Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022
Went hunting for R0 info b/c before I saw @MeetJess tweet saw someone mention R22… & i thought, no couldn’t be
Also why is @MeetJess not here? #twitterMigration
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-variants-of-concern-omicron
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate
The next publication of the R value and growth rate on 23 December 2022 will be the final one. Coronavirus (COVID-19) incidence data will continue to be accessible from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Omicron, Delta, Alpha, and More: What To Know About the Coronavirus Variants

New variants are an expected part of the evolution of viruses, and that includes SARS CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Yale Medicine provides some background on key variants that have surfaced during the course of the pandemic.

Yale Medicine
Show threadLorraine

This is how I, the science illiterate reverse engineer pattern maker fashion designer, came up with R0 estimate

In July I opened my door for 30 secs which allowed aerosols of 2 elderly people who had been gabbing right outside my door in🚫😷for God knows how long b/c maintenance rang my doorbell & my spouse wouldn’t let me ignore it. I closed door took off my😷before I realized my fatal mistake 30 more sec later. I came very close to infection 3. I lost my sh*t. I count it as 1/2 an infection

Dec 12, 2022 at 12:58amWeb
Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022

Yesterday, my spouse opened the door to our apartment for 2 seconds. Unlike July, I had windows open, filters on etc

I THOUGHT I WAS SAFE… but I have tell-tale exposure signs. Not anything close to or as bad as what happened in July b/c it was heavily diluted… & probs b/c I had 2 illegal shots of #Novavax #IWantMyNovavax for all

Whatever is #circulating currently, it’s more contagious than BA.5 & my calculations #NapkinMath for that was 10 inhales🚫😷for 18.6

R22 is <then that for certain

Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221211-top-china-expert-says-covid-spreading-rapidly-after-rules-easing

Here’s link to the article saying each person infects 22 people #China

Every publication & university will not put R0 to anything b/c “so-called prior immunity of population is unknown b/c prior infection or vaccine” but it’s a false paradigm/narrative/premise… in other words a f£%ing lie b/c there is absolutely no durable immunity #reinfection #forever

@tomchappell
couldn’t find our original convo, but hey.. R22! And I believe it 100% #experience is #belief

Top China expert says Covid 'spreading rapidly' after rules easing

One of China's top health experts has warned of a surge in Covid-19 cases, state media said Sunday, in the wake of the government's decision to abandon its hardline coronavirus strategy.

France 24
Show threadtxwikingerDec 12, 2022

@Lorrrraaaaine @tomchappell

China is the ideal Petri dish for
the #COVID virus. more than a billion opportunities to test out mutations. It is highly likely in a couple of month we will deal with a totally different virus again.

#COVID19 #Mutations #CovidVariants #Pandemic

Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022

@tomchappell @txwikinger
It’s been a #variant watch since the very beginning but in real earnest this year & idk where the origin of #sarscov2 spawned exactly from, but #China did everything it could to squelch it

R22 is on us, the rest of the world

There’s been over 600 mutations of #omicron alone just in the month of November 2022

#Delta could come back #recombinant or another old #variant

Skies the limit

Yet STILL NO #MASKMANDATE of N95 or better #stupidity

Show threadMagmuni-muni (ResearcherGrace)Dec 12, 2022
@Lorrrraaaaine @tomchappell R0 of 22?! I remember gasping when I saw that R0 had gone up to 3 during one of the variant surges. Measles is 12 - 18, this is madness that we're letting a virus mutate so effectively when we have the tools to control it.
Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022

@tomchappell @magmunimuni
💯
🚫🚰🦠easy
Idk how I found out about measles contagiousness,but it was pre-Covid. Remember being on subway🚇visualizing how people could leave,someone could unknowingly come on & catch it. Might not have understood airborne at time b/c surfaces on trains were always more my phobia. When I went to FIT in 2014 got MMR booster so wasn’t concerned

just looked…measles ONLY lingers for 2 hrs…#Covid #SARS2 is WAY worse #relativeHumidity is not well understood

Show threadBroadwaybabytoDec 12, 2022
@Lorrrraaaaine @tomchappell holy crap R22?! I mean I could totally believe it but things are going to get so ugly. I want to build a commune with all the #covidcautious folk and we can become self sufficient and live our own #zerocovid life because I’m sick of being a complete hermit just to avoid further disability (and I’m more afraid of increased disability than death)
Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022

@tomchappell @broadwaybabyto
NorthEast & cold winter places will feel this the worst b/c relative humidity is so low
A Covid cautious commune would be so lovely🌈
I’d willingly wear my #microclimateAir +😷 to travel & share air with someone if they were as cautious as me I thought the other day🖤

Nobody understands R22. Couple days ago before I understood the #gaslighting they did to us on R18.6 ,in my head R25 flashed & thought,nah too crazy

Now thinking R30 not out of the realm

Show threadLorraineDec 12, 2022

@tomchappell @broadwaybabyto
Never thought much about death until I watched my dad die practically on my 40th birthday

What I saw changed my perspective & freaked me out permanently
My uncle died 6 months to the day later. Both had pancreatic cancer but different types

Process can only be described as a disability. These were 2 of the most independent & stubborn men I’ve ever known & to see them both reduced to that was a horror

Increased disability is def worse than death🥺

Show threadNjordJan 30, 2023

@Lorrrraaaaine @tomchappell

If Covid in China has an R value of 22, then, the actual R0 is undoubtedly much higher, since China did vaccinate to at least some degree

Show threadLorraineJan 30, 2023

@Njord @tomchappell
My #napkinMath friend! Best term introduction ever:)

Think what’s important to note here is the amount of time it takes to get infected has gone from Wild strain approx 10-15 minutes to now far far less than 1 minute #viralDose

observation of acquaintances it appears there is some sort of very temporary #immunity but my belief is they’ve constant infections until very mutated #variant makes them visibly ill again

this is no way to live💔

Show threadSamSep 21, 2023

@Njord @Lorrrraaaaine @tomchappell Precisely. What they are reporting is some version of an R, rather than the R0.

Early in the pandemic estimates of the “R0” were similarly tainted by control efforts. Those ranged from 3 to 7.

When the virus came to the U.S. and before any controls were put in place the actual R (close to R0) was about 14-15.

The virus has mutated dramatically and hybridized profusely since then.