The collapse of Twitter is a system breakdown. Mastodon and the fediverse represent something different: _system change_. From for-profit "Big Tech" to nonprofit, open source, community-owned public spaces.
System change is always harder than you think. It always incurs short-term costs, with hoped for long-term benefits.
The next few weeks will be really tough for the fediverse. Stick around, vibe with it, and you just might help us put a huge part of the web back in community hands. <3
Expect some of the following to happen in the coming weeks:
- celebrities with huge follower counts pushing tiny community-run servers to their knees
- instance admin burnout; shutting down of servers
- big new servers that don't "vibe" with common rules or culture being widely defederated
- some notable account violating an instance code of conduct and throwing a fit
- lots of people ragequitting Mastodon for one reason or another
- etc.
It'll be a rough ride. Patience and strength, all.
I saw all that just today! ๐
The US is incredibly politically polarized right now, and Musk has aligned himself very visibly with the authoritarian right-wing (to the extent of posting a homophobic Hillary Clinton conspiracy theory).
That's the sort of thing that pushes people over the edge. He seems to be using every day as another opportunity to piss off millions of users of the platform he bought, positioning it increasingly more as a "Fox News of social media".
@zoran @autiomaa @eloquence Musk is no idiot. What he does makes no sense when you assume it's about running a business or maintaining a community.
It makes *a lot* of sense when Musk has political ambitions. His erratic and nonsensical actions then is "vice signaling" to advertise him as authoritarian leader. And it works - the right wing is totally in love with him right now.
@shanti @autiomaa @zoran @eloquence
a) Nobody knows. Words on paper have no power, it will depend on what happens when he announces to do so.
b) he doesn't have to, as long as presidency in the US and elsewhere depend on his approval, on what direction he sends his 400 Million to.
@zoran @eloquence
Your question picks one metric of success; let's look at another.
When I joined Twitter in 2008 it felt like a gathering place for friends and family. A few people I already knew, and many I could easily talk to. Many things grew out of that dynamic: ideas, relationships, events, business connections, learning.
In 2022 Mastodon offers something more like that. We can see limitations because it's not all that Twitter has become, but it *is* something valuable.
So, two observations:
1. If you're looking for something more "social" from your social networking, and you happen to have some friends who have already come here, it doesn't matter whether they're celebrities or not. There may be reason to spend more time here regardless. Mastodon doens't have to vanquish Twitter to flourish in that way. It's less important to a federated system than a corporate-driven one that it tend toward monopoly.
2. It's not impossible that Mastodon *could* supercede Twitter. The dynamics @eloquence describes could drive some "big names" here in the short term; but in the long term, it will be individuals migrating here for organic reasons that will attract more celebs. Celebs, politicians, businesses will tend to go where the crowds are.
I think the loss of Advertisers on Twitter will ultimately make a bigger difference. Musk may want to turn it into another Fox News, but his advertising base and global political ostracization will affect his pocket book sooner and more deeply than celebrities leaving en mass.
@martinpallmann @eloquence funny enough, it could be an "eternal september" event, so a growth in user numbers may not feel great for all the current users.
Personally I welcome it, however I understand if not everyone will feel the same.
@hans live and learn... might become an issue for the celebs as well which imo may not be a bad thing. The fact that a celeb may not get a million favs/boosts by randomly posting a random word or two might turn out to be a personal growth experience for some of them.
Also, seems that being here only for a bit over a week has made me even more critical towards Twitter and its reactionary culture.
@eloquence Yep, the big rush hasn't happened yet. If you know it's coming people could be preparing services to help those bigger folks migrate over without breaking things.
Offer management and get celebs on their own instance (basically verification) and then could also offer accounts to their cohort fans.
Also, an opportunity to set up some initial network-based instances and promote them over core instances.
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