Aaron Y. ZelinNov 20, 2022
Dmitri Alperovitch

There is far too little recognition of the fact that the US Intelligence Community’s ability to discover Russian invasion plans and share them with Ukraine is one of the greatest intelligence successes of the last 50 years and has had a critical impact on thwarting Putin’s imperialist ambitions.

They knew the Russian war plans better than most of the Russian military executing the invasion (who mostly had no idea they were going to war) and even members of Putin’s Security Council! Remarkable!

Nov 20, 2022 at 5:14pmWeb
Show threadBenjamin WittesNov 20, 2022
@dmitri word
Show threadKevin BoivinNov 20, 2022
@dmitri we all benefit from timely intelligence briefings International and domestic.
Show threadM_C_B52Nov 20, 2022
@dmitri I fear some top secret documents about US humint activities in Russia have made their way to Putin since early 2021.
Show threadGirl InterruptedNov 20, 2022
@dmitri too bad the FBI couldn’t have applied that knowledge to keeping trump away from the office of the presidency. That will go down as their greatest failure in their 100 year history.
Show threadBob SajaNov 20, 2022
@GirlInterrupted @dmitri but think about the right wing explosion aimed at our Kenya born president keeping God’s white king from running for office?
Show threadKatyNov 20, 2022

@GirlInterrupted @dmitri

😬 Absolutely not a fan of Trump, but I am glad that least on the surface the FBI is firmly against interfering in US elections.

We likely need some legal standards set for candidates such as being able to pass a security clearance check 🤷‍♀️ which we don't have, because the intelligence community doesn't want to touch that with a 10 ft pole

Show threadGirl InterruptedNov 20, 2022
@kasw @dmitri I honestly thought we had that already?
Show threadKatyNov 21, 2022

@GirlInterrupted

Nope. It's up to the political parties to vet their candidates, there's no official screening beyond the qualifications mentioned in law/Constitution (age, citizen, that stuff)

There is no way a lot of politicians would pass a Secret or Top Secret clearance if they were trying to get an actual job that required them.

Show threadSteve PaeschkeNov 20, 2022
@dmitri agreed. A very interesting strategy by the Biden administration to forecast everything the Russians were planning. Had to be frustrating for poor Mr. Putin. #sadputin
Show threadFridrich Strba Nov 22, 2022
@spaeschke @dmitri Yeah, we thank God for a president that actually knows how to read and is able to do some abstract forward-looking thinking and strategising.
Show threadMatthewNov 20, 2022
@dmitri it is remarkable. And the scale of what was made public, too - I wonder how they cleaned the intelligence to protect their sources / methodology before declassifying? The story of all this will be fascinating in years to come.
Show threadMainEngineerNov 20, 2022
@dmitri Do you think we will ever find out how they did it?
Show threadIvan MaasNov 20, 2022

@dmitri yup, the highest levels of the Kremlin have to be generated.

But this also shows latency, after 50 years of the cold war they can take on a corrupt and declining power, but what about china?

Show threadJohn DillworthNov 20, 2022
@dmitri I expect that the U.S. is providing an absolutely shocking amount of extremely accurate intelligence to Ukraine. I think in the years to come we will find out just how much
Show threadEarthtenantNov 20, 2022
@dmitri totally agree. Times have changed. But still when will the end be coming for this senseless war of destruction?
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 20, 2022
@ACommonSenseVoice Only when one or both warring sides decide that further prosecution of the war will not result in any further substantial gains for them. We are likely far away from that point
Show threadEarthtenantNov 21, 2022
@dmitri I am afraid so also.
Show threadXepackobNov 21, 2022
@dmitri one of the few true successes of Biden presidency (obviously team effort but still)
Show threadBrian in PittsburghNov 21, 2022

@dmitri

Quite probably the most spectacular publicly-known state vs state intelligence success of the 21st century so far.

With its impact helped by the astounding fact that even with his invasion plans being published in Western media Putin not only didn't deviate from them but didn't authorize his own people to know them more broadly.

Show threadwindslighttovariableNov 21, 2022
@dmitri
I agree! However, can't help being suspicious about "how easy the intel gathering looks"!
Show threadAkshayNov 21, 2022
@dmitri The US IC does deserve acknowledgment for their ability to foresee, in incredible detail, the #RussianInvasion of #Ukraine. I am also curious about why multiple EU Intelligence services effed this up, in spite of the giant Russian army visible from space. Too strong presuppositions about #Putin?
Show threadJimNov 22, 2022
@dmitri To the extent that the IC even wants that sort of recognition. I would imagine that at best they don’t care, or, more likely, they’re content to have any US involvement in anything about this war be no one’s first thought.
Show threadIsland_MarthaNov 22, 2022

@dmitri

I really, really hope this is true.

Show threadPaul GrabowNov 26, 2022
@dmitri Can't wait to read the details when they unclassify the material......like in 50 years.....