Kimberly Prather, PhDNov 19, 2022
Esteban Moro
Almost 180k new users joined #mastodon yesterday, a new record. This third #twitterMigration wave happened after Musk's Twitter 2.0 ultimatum to #Twitter workers. Each wave is stronger than the previous one. Here is my updated plot showing the three consecutive waves.
Nov 19, 2022 at 12:59pmWeb
Show threadFrankNov 19, 2022

@estebanmoro
Strongly resembles the Corona waves. Do we have a vaccination against it?

Spoiler:
We do. #Mastodon.

Show threadBrandonNov 19, 2022
@ItMightWork vaccinations (more instances) protect against hospitalizations (total system collapse)
Show threadEQV AnalyticsNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro It's like a graph of musk's skyrocketing progressive
emotional decompensation. Or, as he himself would say, "lol"
Show threadTiago PeixotoNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro I would like to see a plot with number of posts... A lot of people just create an account but don't use the platform.
Show threadIgnacio CastroNov 19, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro The number of toots has more than tripled (weekly snapshots)
Show threadRobin VleijNov 19, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro Follow @mastodonusercount for that :)
Show threadmauforondaNov 19, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro the trend is similar though a bit more nuanced https://observablehq.com/@mauforonda/what-goes-on-in-mastodon
What goes on in Mastodon

See values that don't make sense? Sometimes the source has trouble and stops updating for a while. This usually results in major instances like `mastodon.social` or `pawoo.net` dissapearing from the charts. Here's a plot to check how fresh the records in this page are. Other times instances will report wrong values. This usually shows as huge and sudden jumps in the user counts of clearly small or even personal instances. For example, since February 2023 many calckey instances that updated to recent builds

Observable
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 19, 2022
@mauforonda @tiago nice visualization!
Show threadmauforondaNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro @tiago Thanks Esteban, love these updates on user growth here
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 19, 2022
@tiago I know what you mean. But being here is the first step to more activity. We’ll see how it evolves and if the growth becomes more organic (not because of layoffs in other platforms)
Show threadThraneNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro @tiago I think a lot of this hinges on how important it is for mastodon to maintain its "uniqueness" and if there'll be any attempt to accommodate larger more "general" instances for the more causally inclined.
Also the place of large personalities isn't to be underplayed.
Show threadStefanNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro @tiago Use != Post
Show threadLaure-KatrineNov 19, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro I migrated last Sunday. I'd made more posts on here in 5 days than I had the previous 5 years on the bird. But not necessarily about/for myself. Often either to boost other newcomers, to boost how-to posts, or to help others. Admins have done really well at keeping the servers going. I'd like to eventually learn how to run an instance myself. Very pleased to be here, and appreciate the ones that were here before. Very mindful of that.
Show threadAdri PrejnaNov 19, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro Hey man! Some of us just like to lurk!
Show threadRobin BerjonNov 20, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro That's a fair question but keep in mind that the same is true on Twitter. Something like 10% of users produce 80% of the tweets. We might see a flatter distribution here if it's the most vocal twitter users who migrate (as one could hypothesise), but lurkers gonna lurk anywhere!
Show threadEd DeanNov 20, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro Some (many? most?) of us use the platform with hardly any posting. I'm here almost exclusively to read rather than write, same as it was for me on the bird site :)
Show threadTiago PeixotoNov 20, 2022
@etd @estebanmoro This is fair enough. I was just point out that number of accounts created is not necessarily a good proxy of the number of people engaging with the platform.
Show threadMarie WalshNov 21, 2022

@tiago @estebanmoro

We're getting there as fast as we can..
Patience Mon ami

Show threadMrsGNov 22, 2022
@tiago @estebanmoro I rarely post, as I rarely tweeted. I browse. I’m still a user.
Show threadJohn Quays (the II)Nov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro Dear Esteban, how many are we now in Mastodon ?
Show threadJan's insightsNov 19, 2022

@KKE_Voulas @estebanmoro

At the beginning of November, it had 5.7 million users, and yesterday (18.11.2022) it reached 7 millions!

Note: These are Mastodon numbers, not the entire Fediverse....

Show threadMark BoostNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro that’s so interesting. Really nice to see a decentralised platform like Mastodon benefitting from this.
Show threadGeno MDNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro how can server admins maintain their servers long term?
Show threadharrymfaNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro wait until he lets Trump back in.
Show threadNetsonNov 20, 2022
@harrypujols @estebanmoro happened a few hours ago. Blocked the fkr instantly. I seriously considering leaving twitter for good. Would just need embedded videos and a few more high quality UA war tracker accounts here and could close the door for good.
Show threadwitchlectical runeterialistNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro it also corresponds to my instance's sidekiq activity history, which is the number of messages it processed across everything that it saw on the fediverse
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 19, 2022
@anna wow! Are you the admin? How was the experience of 10x increase?
Show threadwitchlectical runeterialistNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro yes, thankfully it hasn't been too bad for w.l since i had already beefed up and tuned the server a couple of years ago and never downscaled, so while we've been weathering it fine, i do keep seeing from smaller instances (behind long delays) all kinds of problems with backed up queues
Show threadScott Hadland, MD Nov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro Truly astounding to see so many people join the #twittermigration… Thanks for keeping the data going. Helps reinforce the decision many are making to come on over here.
Show threadNils BeldeNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro good chart!
Show threadPrakash GudsoorkarNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro @toothpri
Show threadLaviro Sennomo Nov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro shortly after “he who shall not be named” announced he wanted to buy the bird site I jumped to Mastodon. Now that I’ve been here for a few months, and can’t believe I didn’t join sooner.
Show threadUlrich JunkerNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro good diagram. I took the second wave. You cannot trust somebody who treats employees like bots!
Show threadSean_Of_The_IslandNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro wooooooooooooo
Show threadOlivia McCabeNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro These stats are really interesting. Thanks for sharing them 🙂
Show threadStuartBNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro
Crikey!
I remember coming over at the forefront of the G+ exodus!
I think there were 2 of us came over that day!😁
Show threadLilian EdwardsNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro @aquigley my god its like tracking Covid waves
Show threadJen Newmeyer, CFRENov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro To add to this, the spike you see on November 8 might be the day Musk told US citizens who to vote for. That's when I joined.
Show threadEQV AnalyticsNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro Turn this graph upside down and it's the rate at which Twittelon is losing users. Ouch.
Show threadJustin LindNov 19, 2022

@estebanmoro

#Annotations FTW

Show threadDavid ColarussoNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro what I find amazing is that this recent wave had less of an impact on my server's performance than the last one. It's remarkable how adaptive the fedivers infrastructure has been. Also, tip your admins!
Show threadArclightNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro it would be interesting to see how traffic spikes compare in shape to seismic events...
Show threadMatthewHarpinNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro another big one coming when he reopens Trumps account I reckon.
Show threadDrMumPhDNov 21, 2022
@MatthewHarpin @estebanmoro So true. I joined the caravana out of twitter after he opened that door.
Show threadEmnaNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro +1 I just joined now
Show threadJeremy KahnNov 19, 2022

@estebanmoro i was in the leading edge of both first and second waves, since i migrated instances.

Curious if there's an echo of each wave as people move from their "starter server" to a more permanent one. Will have to look into the methodology, nifty

Show threadJeremy KahnNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro have you published your counting technique anywhere? That user count account/instance you have on the plot doesn't have any information public AFAICT
Show threadAndrew DrozdovNov 19, 2022

@trochee @estebanmoro

Pretty sure that bot has their code on github: https://github.com/gallizoltan/usercount

And it's implemented as a scraper of instances.social (also on github: https://github.com/TheKinrar/instances)

GitHub - gallizoltan/usercount: User statistics bot for Mastodon

User statistics bot for Mastodon. Contribute to gallizoltan/usercount development by creating an account on GitHub.

GitHub
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 19, 2022
@mrdrozdov @trochee yes, the data comes from Zoltan's bot. See the code here -> https://github.com/gallizoltan/usercount
GitHub - gallizoltan/usercount: User statistics bot for Mastodon

User statistics bot for Mastodon. Contribute to gallizoltan/usercount development by creating an account on GitHub.

GitHub
Show threadDaniel FentonNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro @mcollina and I would wager there’s a high percentage of non-lurkers in these early adopters
Show threadSteve WeaverNov 19, 2022
@dmfenton @estebanmoro @mcollina I would agree. I was mainly a lurker on the other site, but since I came over here (in the second wave, so 2 weeks?) I’ve posted over 60 times (compared to 173 tweets in 13 years over there). Engagement has been better, and there’s definitely more of a community feel.
Show threadAlien AnomalyNov 19, 2022

@estebanmoro we ‘joined’ years ago, but it was a bit of a desert.

The joyousness of this time seems intoxicating.

Show threadBlake C. StaceyNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro I distrust any data from "bitcoinhackers.org", on general principles.
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 19, 2022
@bstacey I hear you. But I went through the code of the bot, and the data seems legit.
Show threadtech? no! man, see...Nov 19, 2022

@estebanmoro @bstacey it seems legit but it's going to exclude data from sources which block bitcoinhackers from gathering it

which, I mean, given the name, would not be a bad idea

Show threadB. Scott HoadleyNov 19, 2022
@estebanmoro I'm a Twitter wave 1.5 joiner having joined on 31 October.
Show threadKafkaNov 19, 2022

@bscotthoadley @estebanmoro

I’m one of yesterday’s wave. 🎉

Opened an account on CounterSocial the day Musk announced, but even then had sought info about EU based social site.

This week suddenly many articles mention Mastodon - not least on Twitter! - so I joined.

Show threadchaos 🏳️‍🌈Nov 19, 2022

@estebanmoro thank you for updating this info, I’m in awe of these server admins trying to keep up with this #TwitterMigration

(data visualization here is 10/10 👍)