Julian OliverOct 1, 2022
There are cities I have loved living in, for a time, big cities. But in truth I have never believed in cities. Cities are fragile, built atop the most precarious assumption that the environmental conditions & resources that saw them bloom will remain in supply. Cities are not built for the future they themselves have wrought, and are proving too vast, static and immutable to adapt at anywhere near the pace they must to persist. The future of so many cities is husks of concrete, copper & plastic
Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022

Just as it was for our ancestors, the future is nomadic. As I understand it, having extensively studied many < 2100 models for extreme weather & temperatures, arability & biodiversity loss, most alive today under 30 will almost certainly be migrants in their lifetimes, on our current course (can change).

Behind them they will leave husk cities. They will pour into other towns & cities, or disperse to create smaller aggressively-defended subsistence communities grouped around primary resources.

Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022
So yep, as it stands, cities are far from the future.
Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022
It is time to park the 'but surely my gov would never let that happen'. They are proving to not only let it happen, they are actively helping it happen. Governments the world over have little to no remotely tangible plan for rising seas impacting coastal cities. Shanghai is salt at 2C. Miami is gone. Nor insect biomass collapse, nor the "worst drought in 500 years" as Europe has just seen. Instead after the likes of Florida they just rebuild hoping it won't happen again. It will happen again.
Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022

I cited Miami and Shanghai at 2C, but two examples of many.

2C is soon on our current path, not only given the self-reinforcing feedbacks (wildfires, ice surface melt and loss of heat reflection, ocean warming) generally completely unaccounted for in the IPCC models.

Where will all those people go?

Show threadJulian Oliver
Even at 1.5C many places are rusted out by ocean tides. Much Internet infrastructure is on the verge of going underwater, with no real plan (link forthcoming), esp at submarine cable landing points. You can see how cities will go under for yourself with this excellent tool https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/8/12.6541/45.0764/?theme=warming&map_type=multicentury_slr_comparison&basemap=roadmap&elevation_model=best_available&lockin_model=levermann_2013&refresh=true&temperature_unit=C&warming_comparison=%5B%221.5%22%2C%223.0%22%5D
Sea level rise and coastal flood risk maps -- a global screening tool by Climate Central

Interactive global map showing areas threatened by sea level rise and coastal flooding.

Oct 1, 2022 at 11:59amWeb
Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022

"When the three researchers laid the map of the internet’s physical infrastructure on top of sea-level rise prediction maps, they saw a striking overlap: Huge sections of important infrastructure were in the places likely to be underwater within 15 years."

“We live in a world designed for an environment that no longer exists”

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/news-internet-underwater-sea-level-rise

The Internet Is Drowning

Rising seas imperil the delicate web of cables and power stations that control the internet.

National Geographic
Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022
We think of our communication technologies as 'new'. But they are not. It's all old infrastructure, "designed for an environment that no longer exists", that we bolt new stuff onto. We think of modern tech as a sort wave of progress we're all riding, but in reality it's built atop a vast and fragile rusting stack that less and less people maintain and upgrade. Resilience is not built in. 'Modern' is just what we see at shiny end points, and will be near worthless when the layers below fail
Show threadJulian OliverOct 1, 2022

I realise all this is completely unacceptable and blergh to read, but as it stands our best available information gives us no indication otherwise. We are hurtling toward huge upheaval, & well within the lifetimes of most.

It is not 'doomer' nor 'pessimistic', any more than it is to observe an incoming storm. Having the courage to talk about it is essential to face what is coming with agility, determination and knowledge. Where at all possible.

"Optimism without honesty is denial"

- Anohni