Mastodawn

Experimental contiguous USA stream water temperature forecast with TempEst-NEXT:

This week, stream temperatures are expected to hold relatively steady compared to the volatility of the last few weeks. Streams in most of the country are expected to warm moderately over the week, with some areas of cooling in the Northwest. The West Coast is and will remain cooler than average, while the northern half of the eastern US is a bit on the warm side. Predicted temperatures are still in the single digits Celsius (30s-40s Fahrenheit) in the mountains and far north, but are mostly in the teens (50s-60s) elsewhere, ranging up to the high 20s (low 80s) in the Southeast and Arizona. (This forecast is for a total of 913 small [HUC-12] watersheds randomly selected from around the country.)

Warning: this is an experimental stream water temperature forecast for the upcoming week. Results are not guaranteed in any capacity. Typical errors are approximately 2.5 C. These data and related items of information have not been formally disseminated by NOAA, and do not represent any agency determination, view, or policy. This research is funded by the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology.

The code used to generate these forecasts is available on GitHub at https://github.com/mines-ciroh/natl-temp-forecast (requires support for ecCodes, for which Linux is recommended).

#hydrology #forecast #watertemperature #temperature #modeling

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Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Timelapse

Daniel Philippus Apr 6

Experimental national (contiguous USA) stream water temperature forecast:

This week, stream temperatures are expected to increase rapidly in the upper Midwest and cool in the Northeast and West Coast, with modest trends elsewhere. Most of the west is a bit warmer than average and there's a hot zone in the northeast, with the rest of the country largely on the cool side. The trend over the week is largely a return to average, especially in the upper Midwest and northeast. (This forecast is for a total of 913 small [HUC-12] watersheds randomly selected from around the country.)

Warning: this is an experimental stream water temperature forecast for the upcoming week. Results are not guaranteed in any capacity. Typical errors are approximately 2.5 C (4 F).

These data and related items of information have not been formally disseminated by NOAA, and do not represent any agency determination, view, or policy. This research is funded by the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology.

The code used to generate these forecasts is available on GitHub at https://github.com/mines-ciroh/natl-temp-forecast (requires support for ecCodes, for which Linux is recommended). Actual weekly forecasts are made available on CUAHSI HydroShare at
http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/b8852529788a437a8d697e9b0435b99a. The model is TempEst-NEXT (https://rivertempest.org, manuscript in review).

#hydrology #forecast #watertemperature #temperature #modeling

Daniel Philippus Apr 1

I'm experimenting with running weekly stream temperature forecasts for a sample of streams over the US as a demo of our model, and I thought I'd look for early feedback here. Thoughts?

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This week, stream temperatures are expected to remain elevated across the middle of the country, with many sites hitting around 5 C above average. However, temperatures are low on the coasts, ranging from about average to >5 C below average. Overall temperatures range from a few degrees above freezing in the north to about 25 C in the southeast. Streams are generally expected to cool off over the week, except in the Pacific Northwest. (This forecast is for a total of 913 small [HUC-12] watersheds randomly selected from around the country.)

Warning: this is an experimental stream water temperature forecast for the upcoming week. Results are not guaranteed in any capacity. Typical errors are approximately 2.5 C (4 F).

The code used to generate these forecasts is available on GitHub at https://github.com/mines-ciroh/natl-temp-forecast (requires support for ecCodes, for which Linux is recommended). Actual weekly forecasts are made available on CUAHSI HydroShare at http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/b8852529788a437a8d697e9b0435b99a.

#hydrology #forecast #watertemperature #temperature #modeling

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