These swing voters are sour on Trump, the economy and Iran war
These swing voters are sour on Trump, the economy and Iran war
The article examines how a Texas program transporting migrants to six major U.S. cities influenced voting patterns in the 2024 presidential election, with a focus on shifts among swing voters and heightened turnout among conservatives. It analyzes county and individual-level data to identify mechanisms driving this political change, including heightened crime and immigration fears amplified by media and messaging.
The piece is of interest to psychology readers for its exploration of how perceptions, fear, and political messaging can shape voting behavior and collective responses to rapid social changes, highlighting the role of media narratives in constructing perceived threats.
Article Title: Texas migrant buses boosted Donald Trump’s vote share in targeted cities
Link to PsyPost Article: https://www.psypost dot org/texas-migrant-buses-boosted-donald-trumps-vote-share-in-targeted-cities/
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#politicalpsychology #voterbehavior #mediaeffects #immigrationpolicy #swingvoters
#RawStory 9:55am EST - Mar 4, 2026
#MaxBurns, founder of #ThirdDegreeStrategies, believes [Trump] played his hand 2 early: his recent bombing of #Iran will b crucial 2 tipping #SwingVoters 2 side w/ #Democrat reps. In #TheHill, Burns suggestd change in tone of even most dedicated #MAGA supportrs→telling moment that could decide the race
"Given a choice between launching an unnecessary war & spending money 2 actually improve the lives of Americans, #Trump..chose bombs"
A veteran strategist for the Democratic Party has suggested that one recent move from Donald Trump is the key to winning big at the midterms. Max Burns, founder of Third Degree Strategies, believes the president has played his hand too early and his recent bombing of Iran will be crucial to tipping ...
Appealing to "The Middle" No Longer Works in U.S. Elections
The #2024election showed us that trying to win over the elusive "middle" isn’t the way to victory anymore. When #Harris pivoted to target #moderate #voters, focusing on broad #MiddleClass issues, it left her base feeling unmotivated.
The "middle class" is too diverse for a one-size-fits-all approach, and only 45% of people identify in that bucket; economic needs vary by #race and region, so generic centrist rhetoric doesn’t resonate. Meanwhile, a shrinking pool of true #SwingVoters means the key to victory is energizing the base.
While #Trump rallied his base around clear priorities, Harris’s appeal to centrists didn’t hit the mark and likely led to lower enthusiasm and turnout among her supporters. In an era where most voters are deeply committed to their beliefs, an overly broad approach can make a campaign seem out of touch and uninspiring.
#Election2024 #Polarization #USPolitics
2/5
Interesting paper from 2012 (and how much has changed since then?): "swing voters" might not actually exist, or at least not in any meaningful numbers. This paper makes a case that "swing voters" are an illusion created by the research methods and statistics used by polling organizations.
https://researchdmr.com/MythicalSwingVoterFinal.pdf
#uspol #swingvoters #election #statistics #dataanalysis #surprise #counterintuitive
Who are America’s real swing voters? @damemagazine’s Parker Molloy says that it might be “left-leaning voters who are just about ready to walk away from the political process altogether” — and there’s a lot of them out there. What’s the first step to engaging them? Understanding what most voters DON'T want. “A study by Harvard’s Shorenstein Center found that 2020 election coverage was mostly horse-race nonsense, with barely any attention given to the policies that actually impact people’s lives,” Molloy writes. “When the media treats elections like a reality-TV show, it just reinforces the idea that politics is disconnected from real life.”
https://www.damemagazine.com/2024/09/24/the-real-swing-voters-arent-who-you-think/
#USElection #SwingVoters #USPolitics #Newstodon #NewstodonFriday #FollowFriday
While the media is busy obsessing over the mythical “swing voters” who supposedly can’t decide between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, there’s an equally significant—and just as important—group of voters they’re ignoring: left-leaning voters who are just about ready to walk away from the political process altogether. These people aren’t wrestling with a choice between
@zemsgram @Bellison22
You have to remember that it was just a handful of "#SwingVoters" in a handful of mid-Western states who put #TheOrangeMenace in office in 2016.
Support for #Harris might be greater *nationwide*, but elections are decided by the uninformed & easily fooled. 😞