simon poulterNov 2, 2022
The next wave of 'disruptive' innovation will be to claw back control from big tech, rebuilding services and economies at scale for real people encountering climate change & relative poverty. People disrupting profit. #superforecaster #bigtech
personJul 28, 2022

What can we learn about making good #predictions from the 1800s? A few things...

https://person-al.github.io/%F0%9F%8C%B3/2021/08/19/predicting-the-effects-of-a-new-medium-is-hard.html?ref=mast

#Superforecaster #superforecasting #futurism #technology

🌳 predicting the effects of a new medium is hard

Bottled Authors: The Predigital Dream of the Audiobook is a delightful 10 minute read on the beauty of imagination. Set in the late 1800s, the primary goal is to survey the audiobook predictions of folks hearing audio recording technology for the first time. But reading it raised a different question for me: How can we reasonably predict what a brand new medium will do to the media we create with it?

Let’s get Person-al
May 27, 2021

Science4All - son avis sur ... les champions de la prédiction #Bayes #Superforecaster https://www.arfy.fr/dotclear/index.php?post/2021/05/27/Science4All-son-avis-sur-----les-champions-de-la-prediction-Bayes-Superforecaster De la logique, du bon sens ? Ou "une Mme Michu" bien meilleurs que des prévisionnistes de la CIA =)

Cette femme prédit mieux l'avenir que la CIA !

La vidéo:

Science4All - son avis sur ... les champions de la prédiction #Bayes #Superforecaster

De la logique, du bon sens ?  Ou "une Mme Michu" bien meilleurs que des prévisionnistes de la CIA =) Cette femme prédit mieux l'avenir que la CIA ! La vidéo: