Pathogen host-jumps pose major risks to health, but how can we predict them? This study shows that #pathogen novelty, rather than #spillover rate, is a stronger predictor of host-jump risk, so we should monitor emerging pathogens with limited spillover histories @PLOSBiology https://plos.io/4ss5WCY

Pathogen host jump risk is not predicted by spillover rate, but rather by novelty
Host jumps pose major risks to health, but predicting them remains challenging due to complex spillover dynamics. This study shows that pathogen novelty, rather than spillover rate, is a stronger predictor of host jump risk, emphasizing the importance of monitoring emerging pathogens with limited spillover histories.


