Rolf Groeneveld
Jeroen van der SluijsKaalstaart is een reizend festival voor bètakunst. Onderzoekers stellen een vraag, kunstenaars antwoorden met hun werk. Mijn #postnormalscience vraag: "Hoe kan kunst er aan bijdragen dat de wetenschap uit haar ivoren toren van zekerheden wordt gelokt?" https://kaalstaart.nl
Stakeholders are more than opponents who might throw sand in the gears; they might actually spot considerations you hadn’t thought of. This also raises questions on how we do #costbenefitanalysis under #DeepUncertainty #wickedproblems #postnormalscience (9/9)
Daniele de Rigo7/
[1] Saltelli, A., 2023. What is post-normal science? A personal encounter. Foundations of Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10699-023-09932-x
[2] Breznau, N., Rinke, E.M., Wuttke, A., et al., 2022. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (44), e2203150119+. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119
#DOI #PostNormalScience #complexity #uncertainty #preregistration #reproducibility #PreciselyIncorrect
What is Post-normal Science? A Personal Encounter - Foundations of Science
What is post-normal science? What are the reasons for, and consequences of, encountering it in one’s professional life? Here I share my own experience of readings, practices and discussions with the fathers, supporters and detractors of PNS. After a short description of PNS and of my own experience with it, I review some common criticism levelled to PNS from different authors and conclude reflecting on how PNS—difficult to explain and translate into formulae or checklists—provides its practitioners with useful keys to open relevant doors to understanding, and might be especially suited to face the present intersecting crises befalling the use of science for policy.
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[1] Nature Sustainability, 2023. Summers up in smoke. Nature Sustainability 6 (8), 875–876. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01211-8
[2] Gilletly, S.D., Jackson, N.D., Staid, A., 2023. Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production. Applied Energy 348, 121303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121303
#DOI #GlobalChange #ClimateChange #HumanCaused #adaptation #preparedness #EmergencyManagement #uncertainty #HighStakes #UrgentDecisions #ExtendedPeerCommunities #PostNormalScience
Doug BostromPart (most?) of our challenge w/climate change is captured by table 1 in this work.
There is so much to keep track of, so very many knobs needing to be turned in symphony, more or less harmoniously. It's daunting.
There is no hard border between climate disruption research and nearly everything happening between bedrock and the top of our atmosphere, risks are high, there are many pools of uncertainty in outcomes, and we're choosing a future.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617305557?via%3Dihub#b0425
More on @AndreaSaltelli @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs et al [1]:
https://mstdn.social/@AndreaSaltelli/110117558118951102
"existing approaches have offered a dangerously reassuring picture of the risks involved by downplaying uncertainties"
"overreliance on neoclassical economical perspectives – the current dominant economic paradigm grounded on monetary assessments and the assumption of efficient and self-regulating markets – misses out on the #complexity of issues characterising reality"
Andrea Saltelli (@[email protected])
Wow! Excellent press release from the University of Reading for our piece on impact assessment in the EU. @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @SFuntowicz https://research.reading.ac.uk/research-blog/why-its-time-for-new-approaches-to-environmental-and-health-issues-in-the-eu/
Andrea SaltelliNews - University of Birmingham.
"A team of eight institutes, let by the UPF Barcelona School of Management and including universities from Norway, Poland, Estonia and the United Kingdom show how the inclusion of neglected currents of thought such as #nonRicardianEconomics, #bioeconomics and a set of qualitative-quantitative methods from #postnormalscience leads to richer perspectives. Using this palette allows gazing into more possible futures..."
Vast implications of Figure SPM.5 in the #IPCC AR6 summary
A "wise" immediate change of emission patterns (to minimise risk) has become so drastic now that one might wonder if we'll be ever able to achieve it before some #TippingPoint becomes irreversible
Tipping points mean there is #DeepUncertainty: which adds to the urgency of decisions in a policy landscape of disputed values and huge stakes (#PostNormalScience): we may be forced to navigate within effects of unpredictable magnitude
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"Knowledge of the full #timeline casts a very different light, in particular on the difficulties currently encountered in the practice of #MES; far from being the expected growing pains of a young discipline, these difficulties turn out to be long-standing problems that have eluded solution over the last half-century and appear intrinsically unresolvable." [4]
#EcosystemServices #Uncertainty #ControversialMonetarisation #NonMarketValuation #PostNormalScience
[1] Saltelli, A., Kuc-Czarnecka, M., Lo Piano, S., Lőrincz, M.J., Olczyk, M., Puy, A., Reinert, E., Smith, S.T., van der Sluijs, J.P., 2023. Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new? Environmental Science & Policy 142, 99-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2023.02.005
[2] Masood, E., 2022. More than dollars: mega-review finds 50 ways to value nature. Nature d41586-022-01930-6+ https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01930-6
#DOI #Uncertainty #PostNormalScience #ControversialMonetarisation