(Edit to add: I am an idiot, this host was never pkgbasified, but leaving for the edification of others)
Weird #FreeBSD #pkgbase thing. #sysadmin
I updated my hosts from 14->15 with freebsd-update, then ran pkgbaseify and switched to pkgbase. No problem.
My jails & bhyves update, no problem.
# freebsd-version
15.0-RELEASE-p8
The bare metal install?
# freebsd-version
15.0-RELEASE-p4
# pkg upgrade -r FreeBSD-base
Updating FreeBSD-base repository catalogue...
FreeBSD-base repository is up to date.
FreeBSD-base is up to date.
Checking for upgrades (1 candidates): 100%
Processing candidates (1 candidates): 100%
Checking integrity... done (0 conflicting)
Your packages are up to date.
So it finds packages, but there's nothing to update? #headdesk