Centuries of net-negative emissions are required to secure a safe climate future, two studies suggest

Two new studies conclude that stabilizing long-term #climate risks will require sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (#CO2) #emissions for centuries. Approaching the problem from distinct perspectives—legal and technological feasibility on the one hand, and economic optimization under uncertainty on the other—the research converges on a consistent message:

--> reaching net zero is not enough.

Both studies were led by researchers from the Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group of the #IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program and underline that achieving the #ParisAgreement goals will demand durable commitments to large-scale #CarbonDioxide removal (#CDR) extending far beyond current policy timelines.

Stabilizing #SeaLevelRise and #permafrost thaw demands long-term carbon removal commitments

https://phys.org/news/2026-03-centuries-net-negative-emissions-required.html

#ClimateScience
#ClimateCrisis
#Uhhps

New on our blog!

Climate Advisory Opinions and the Emergence of General Principles

On 23 July 2025, the International Court of Justice delivered its Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change, outlining the States’ obligations under treaty and customary international law. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights publishe

#ClimateChange #ParisAgreement

https://voelkerrechtsblog.org/climate-advisory-opinions-and-the-emergence-of-general-principles/

Pace of global warming has nearly doubled since 2015, reveals study

An acceleration in human-caused #GlobalWarming could see the #ParisAgreement’s 1.5C limit breached before 2030, a new study suggests.

The paper, published in Geophysical Research Letters, finds that, over the past decade, the planet has been warming at its fastest rate on record.

The authors isolate the trend of human-driven warming in the long-term global temperature record, removing the influence of natural factors, such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar variation.

They find that the world had been warming at a rate of around 0.2C per decade since the 1970s, but has “accelerated” since 2015 to a rate of 0.35C per decade.

The study warns that if the current rate of warming persists, the 1.5C Paris threshold will be breached in the next few years.

“The essential result of this paper isn’t how fast we’re warming, but that warming is now happening faster than before and that the difference isn’t negligible,” an author on the study tells Carbon Brief.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/pace-of-global-warming-has-nearly-doubled-since-2015-study-says/

#ClimateScience
#ClimateCrisis

A tonne removed ≠ a tonne avoided. New research confirms what CDR scientists have been saying: removals and emissions aren't climate-equivalent. Different timescales, different feedback loops.

CDR is essential for Paris goals. But it complements deep emission cuts — it doesn't replace them. The limits are real, and we need honest accounting.

https://www.carbon-drawdown.de/blog/2026-2-24-cdr-must-shift-from-speed-amp-scale-to-prove-amp-learn

#CarbonRemoval #CDR #ClimateAction #ParisAgreement

The UN just issued the first-ever carbon credits under the Paris Agreement's Article 6.4 mechanism.

60,000 credits from a clean cookstove project in Myanmar — more conservative calculations than the old Kyoto CDM. "Our focus is on building confidence in this market from the outset."

It took a decade to get here. But quality over volume is the right call for carbon markets.

https://carboncredits.com/carbon-markets-deliver-first-results-climate-policies-cut-3-1-gigatons-first-paris-credits-issued-by-un/

#CarbonMarkets #Article6 #ParisAgreement #CDR

The UN just approved the first-ever carbon credits under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism.

Myanmar cookstove project — credits count for both Myanmar & South Korea. 40% more conservative than the old CDM system.

Over 2 billion people globally still lack clean cooking access.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/un-approves-first-carbon-credits-under-paris-agreement-market-mechanism

#CarbonCredits #ParisAgreement #ClimatePolicy

"China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole.

This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that, in 2025, emissions from fossil fuels increased by an estimated 0.1%, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement.

Other key findings include:

- CO2 emissions fell year-on-year in almost all major sectors in 2025, including transport (3%), power (1.5%) and building materials (7%).
- The key exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions grew 12%.
- Solar power output increased by 43% year-on-year, wind by 14% and nuclear 8%, helping push down coal generation by 1.9%.
- Energy storage capacity grew by a record 75 gigawatts (GW), well ahead of the rise in peak demand of 55GW.
- This means that growth in energy storage capacity and clean-power output topped the increases in peak and total electricity demand, respectively.

The CO2 numbers imply that China’s carbon intensity – its fossil-fuel emissions per unit of GDP – fell by 4.7% in 2025 and by 12% during 2020-25.

This is well short of the 18% target set for that period by the 14th five-year plan.

Moreover, China would now need to cut its carbon intensity by around 23% over the next five years in order to meet one of its key climate commitments under the Paris Agreement."

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/

#China #FossilFuels #CarbonEmissions #Decarbonization #ClimateChange #ParisAgreement