1/ If you're following the debacle on the Democratic National Committee autopsy on the 2024 election, here's my #metascience take on the problem.
Why Kamala Harris lost in 2024 is an empirical question. It's a complicated empirical question with dozens, hundreds, or thousands of relevant factors. It's made even more complicated by the presence of background preferences and wishful thinking.
If we're not careful, it's a tangled mix of descriptive empirical questions (why did some previous Dem voters shift to the right) and normative questions (what should we do next time to prevent that). Here I'll bracket the normative questions and focus on the empirical ones.
When scientists address complicated empirical questions, we don't expect one researcher or team to identify all the relevant factors in one publication. We don't even expect the entire field to identify all relevant factors in one generation. We expect incremental advances. We expect many researchers to identify many factors over time, tussle over the empirical evidence for and against them, give different factors different weights, differ on which factors are most salient, and differ in how to take the most salient factors into account. And we do all that in public.
#Democrats #DNC #Metaresearch #USPol #USPolitics
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