Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z <-- shared 2025 paper
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https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/floods-droughts-fires-hydroclimate-whiplash-speeding-up-globally <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
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H/T @Daniel Swain
“Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning
Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
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https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
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H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
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[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
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“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers

Strategies & Tactics for #SocialChange
Some Lessons from the Movement in the US Against the #Vietnam War
https://world-outlook.com/2026/04/27/strategies-tactics-for-social-change/

from #WorldOutlook
April 27, 2026

In the past year, millions in the US have protested Washington’s attacks on democratic rights, #ICE terror, and imperialist war. Among them are many young people, alongside others who have never before taken to the streets.

These activists are testing strategies and tactics and debating how to push back #Trump’s march toward one-man rule. Many of the questions they face have been posed before, perhaps most notably during the anti- #VietnamWar movement in the #US in the 1960s and early ’70s.

As the #war escalated and opposition broadened, discussion flourished over how to build the movement. Debates often centered on the effectiveness of “#DirectAction,” or #CivilDisobedience, vs. mass marches and rallies, and on the demands promoted in these actions.

#news #politics #USA #protest #USpol #MassMovement

Strategies & Tactics for Social Change

In the past year, millions in the United States have protested Washington’s attacks on democratic rights, ICE terror, and imperialist war. Among them are many young people, alongside others who have never before taken to the streets. These activists are testing strategies and tactics and debating how to push back Trump’s march toward one-man rule. Many of the questions they face have been posed before, perhaps most notably during the anti-Vietnam war movement in the United States in the 1960s and early ’70s. As a contribution to the discussion of strategy and tactics in today’s struggles, World-Outlook is publishing the 1971 column "Some Comments on the Mayday Actions" by Fred Halstead, a central leader of the anti-Vietnam war movement in the United States.

World-Outlook

This post is worth reading... posts by Crimethinc are always worth a read.

What We Want for May Day

What do we want for May Day? In short, to take another step towards freedom from all forms of oppression—towards what we call anarchy, by which we mean egalitarian relationships based in self-determination, solidarity, and mutual aid. Anarchists have been central to May Day since its origins as a labor holiday in 1886, when police in Chicago attempted to suppress anarchist labor organizers who were fighting for right to the eight-hour workday. Today, as intensifying authoritarianism propels more and more people into action, we have a window of opportunity to make real change. Towards that end, we present some starting points and a handbill to promote them.

#Anarchism #Labor #MayDay #GeneralStrike #AntiCapitalism #Antifascism #AntiWar #US #Politics #Democracy #Organize #MassMovement

https://crimethinc.com/2026/04/27/what-we-want-for-may-day

What We Want for May Day

Reflections on what a general strike could mean for May Day, including some starting places for action and a handbill to distribute.

CrimethInc.

Looks like a meaningful way to spend the evening before our nationwide May Day 1 Day General Strike! Follow the link below for more information and the registration form.

Zapatistas Reportback & Discussion From Chiapas To Philly: Lessons For Building Lasting Mass Movements

w/ Philly Socialists, Abolition School, & guest panelist Geo Maher

Come hear about the Zapatista’s international gatherings & what organizers and community members in Philadelphia can learn from 40+ years of anti-capitalist, indigenous struggle in Chiapas

In defense of the land, the people, and life itself

Thursday April 30, 6PM

Philly Free School & Online (Via Zoom)

#Resist #Capitalism #AntiCapitalism #Democracy #Chiapas #Solidarity #Mexico #Indigenous #Organize #Socialism #MassMovement

https://phlanticap.noblogs.org/zapatistas-reportback-discussion-from-chiapas-to-philly-lessons-for-building-lasting-mass-movements/

Philly Anti-Capitalist : Zapatistas Reportback & Discussion From Chiapas To Philly: Lessons For Building Lasting Mass Movements