#Trumpâs ânew normalâ leaves #Australia marooned. We can no longer pretend otherwise.
The rules-based global order is rapidly disintegrating. Itâs time for middle powers to stand together.
The #French president Emmanuel #Macron borrowed some lines from #HughGrant about bullies at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
His target was Donald Trump, who had leaked a conciliatory text message from Macron who, evidently, was trying to get the US president to the table to shore up the rapidly disintegrating global order.
In the love-it-or-hate-it Christmas film, Love Actually, Grant â playing the foppish #British prime minister of the day â confronts the US president, saying: âA friend who bullies us is no longer a friend, and since bullies only respond to strength, from now onward, I will be prepared to be much stronger.â
We are now in an era where truth is stranger than fiction, if you can find the truth at all.
Macronâs text message was about #Greenland, which has been at the centre of a classic Trumpian play to use his position to provoke a reaction thereby illustrating his power. His threat to impose tariffs on #Denmark, #Norway, #Sweden, #France, #Germany, the #UK, the #Netherlands and #Finland because of their opposition to #American control of Greenland achieved its aim.
#Europe scrambled to respond, considering retaliatory tariffs, increased customs duties and limiting or blocking access to US goods, services or companies. Troops were sent to Greenland.
Trump then cited a vague âdealâ with #NATO and dropped the #tariffs.
âWe probably wonât get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force, where we would be, frankly, unstoppable,â Trump said, before adding: âBut I wonât do that.â
But letâs be honest: had he acted on his threats on Greenland â either economic or military â who could have stopped him?
We can no longer pretend. The global order is built on trust. The #UnitedStates, under Donald Trump, cannot be trusted. And removing that lynchpin from the global order is a catastrophe.
As Mark #Carney, the #Canadian prime minister, said in his watershed speech at #Davos, âthe old order is not coming backâ.
Itâs notable that this speech has received so much attention when all Carney did was state the obvious.
Trumpâs actions in the Northern Hemisphere are highly relevant to Australia, and they represent more than flexing.
As I wrote here last March, the Atlantic alliance, which has protected peace in western Europe for almost 80 years (albeit imperfectly) is evaporating before our eye. Itâs deluded not to think this has profound and alarming implications for Australia.
Arguably events in #Ukraine and #Gaza over the last few years have been part of the ruination of the rules-based order that has been in fragile existence since world war two. The rules of war and humanitarian and democratic principles have been variously ignored by #Putin, #Netanyahu and most recently the #TrumpRegime administration in #Venezuela. The boundaries are very frayed.
In this, Trump has form.
Heâs been shifting boundaries inexorably since he first entered the presidential race in 2015, testing tolerances and controlling and rebuilding the information landscape in such a way that ever more unprecedented actions become accepted even if they had not been expected.
Itâs the new normal. From a values and principles point of view, this leaves Australia marooned.
With our closest ally threatening other #allies with no regard for rules, systems, protocol, ethics or consequences our defence, security, information, technology and economic systems are so intertwined that disentangling them appears at worst impossible, at best extraordinarily complicated.
And what of our own alliance with America? What is the value of Aukus, which to date is making us a greater first-strike target while we shovel billions of dollars to Trump, just as he ditches article 5 of the Nato pact without so much as a flick of the wrist?
Reports that #Canada has modelled a hypothetical US invasion may seem wild, but as Carney said, his nation was amongst âthe first to hear the wake-up callâ that historic alliances are no longer guaranteed.
âMiddle powers must act together because if weâre not at the table, weâre on the menu,â he said.
Agree with it or not, he is walking the talk, cutting a trade deal with China â and saying in its defence: âWe take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.â
In other words, hope is not a strategy.
Trumpâs buddy Steve #Bannon conducted an apparent strategic intervention on behalf of the #MAGA brigade, according to reports this week, saying Australiaâs response to #Covid meant our image was damaged among Trump supporters.
âPeople in your country should understand you went from beloved to kind of shot,â he said, with breathtaking lack of self-awareness.
It cuts both ways. And Australia canât expect to fall back on mateship under Trump.
#ZoeDaniel is a three-time #ABC #foreigncorrespondent and the former independent member for Goldstein. She is the chair of Mental Health Victoria. #uspol #auspol
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2026/jan/25/trump-new-global-order-australia-marooned